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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (4/26)

Apr 26, 2021

Ja Morant is averaging 54 DraftKings points per game in his two meetings with the Nuggets this season.

The weekend slate was unusually small, but it has left us with a monster Monday card. We have 11 games making up this ledger, leaving us with a huge player pool. The injuries are absolutely crazy right now, which is clear when you open up a contest and see all of the red designations next to nearly every player’s name. That’s going to play a huge factor in many of these value picks, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

To say every position is stacked is an understatement. With that said, the point guard position has the most value. The reason for that is because of all the injuries. If you click the PG tab, you’ll see that almost every big-name player enters this matchup with some injury designation. There’s also a lot of value at center, too, which tends to be the case on DraftKings more often than not.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Ja Morant (MEM) $8,200
The Grizzlies are doing everything possible to attain a playoff berth, and it has Morant feeling it right now. The 21-year-old has scored at least 35 fantasy points in four straight games, averaging 55 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s probably the best stretch of his career, and we love that Ja is averaging 54 DraftKings points per game in his two meetings with the Nuggets this season.

Delon Wright (SAC) $5,000
Wright should be $6K in this new role. He’s going to play a lot more now that De’Aaron Fox is sidelined, which was on full display when he had seven points, six rebounds, five assists, and two steals across 27 minutes on Sunday. That’s the stat-stuffing machine we saw in Detroit, and he should be getting more minutes and usage in the absence of Fox.

Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $6,400
You’d think that Donovan Mitchell‘s injury would help ball-handlers more, but it’s done wonders for Bogey. It’s really no surprise when you see how many attempts DM fires up every game, with Bogdanovic averaging 15.4 shots a game over his last seven outings. That has led to a 34-point average in that span which we love against a 26th-ranked T’Wolves defense.

Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,300
Lowry has obviously been bad recently, but it’s lowered his price way too much. Most of the guys in this $7K range are barely averaging 30 fantasy points per game, and it’s hard to overlook Lowry’s 37-point average for the year. That alone makes him a good value, and we certainly don’t mind that he faces a 21st-ranked Cavs defense either. In his last game against them, Lowry dropped 37 fantasy points.

Daniel Gafford (WAS) $3,900
Gafford has been getting more playing time with the Wizards, and that’s all we’ve been asking for from a guy this talented. He’s actually played at least 24 minutes in two of his last three games, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in both of those. That’s hard to believe from a $3,900 player, equating to 10X value.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,500
Noel never astonishes with his stat lines, but this guy continues to provide value through defensive statistics. The big man has scored at least 21 DK points in eight straight games, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in that span. That makes this $4,500 price tag laughable, and he should be ready for more steals and blocks in what should be a defensive game.

Brandon Goodwin (ATL) $4,300
The Hawks are trying to figure things out with Trae Young sidelined, and it looks like Goodwin will be one of the primary beneficiaries. In the two games without him, BG has 40.5 combined DK points across 40 minutes of play. You really can’t ask for any more from a $4,300 player, and he’s proven to be even better when Young was out earlier this year.

P.J. Dozier (DEN) $5,200
Dozier was already playing more with Jamal Murray out, but it looks like he’s going to be a key part of this offense with Will Barton sidelined as well. In the last two games without those two, P.J. dropped a season-best 46 DraftKings points. That’s amazing from a $5K player, and we fully anticipate him getting north of 6K as long as Barton remains out.

Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,100
This is a fantastic spot for Murray. Let’s start by talking about the matchup, with Washington ranked 26th in total defense while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. That allowed Murray to drop a triple-double in their one meeting earlier this year, and that’s definitely in play yet again.

Cory Joseph (DET) $5,000
The Pistons are a nightmarish team to trust for DFS purposes, but CJ should be $1,000 more if he continues to start. We say that because he’s started the last seven games he’s played for Detroit, averaging 31 DK points per game in 31 minutes a night. Those are absurd numbers from a $5K player, especially with Atlanta owning a 28th OPRK against opposing point guards this year.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: Jokic is leading the NBA with nearly 60 DraftKings points per game, making him hard to avoid, no matter the price. What’s equally as impressive is his floor, scoring at least 41 DK points in all but three games this year. Now that Murray and Barton are out, too, he should be asked to do even more, averaging a ridiculous 1.7 DK points per minute with both of them off the floor.
  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,900: If you want to fade Jokic, you can’t fade Russ. This guy is on a different level right now, recording 16 triple-doubles in his last 20 games. That has his average north of 60 DK points per game in that span, which is hard to overlook no matter the matchup.
  • Paul George (LAC) $9,600: With Kawhi Leonard out for the foreseeable future, PG-13 should continue to feast. He’s been doing just that recently, scoring at least 46 DraftKings points in eight straight games while averaging 55 fantasy points per game in that stretch. We adore the matchup, too, with New Orleans ranked 27th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Isaiah Stewart (DET) $6,000: It pains me to do this, but Stewart is not the guy when Mason Plumlee starts. He’s actually played fewer than 20 minutes in the last two games with Plumlee, scoring fewer than 23 fantasy points in both of them.
  • Duncan Robinson (MIA) $5,500: I just don’t understand this price. He’s only surpassed 23 DraftKings points three times in his last eight games, which is on par with his season average. That’s impossible to trust from a $5,500 player.
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $5,300: Whiteside has been in the doghouse all year for the Kings, and now that Richaun Holmes is healthy, he’s back in it. Hassan actually received a DNP on Sunday in Holmes’ first game back, making him the biggest fade of the day at $5,300.
  • Gary Trent (POR) $5,200: All of the Raptors starters returned in their most recent game, and it led to one of GT’s worst games of the year. He had just 5.3 DK points in 19 minutes, and he won’t have much usage when all of these guys are in the lineup.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.