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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (4/5)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (4/5)

The NBA can tend to be frustrating at this point of the year with so many players sitting, and that’s certainly becoming an issue this year. We have a handful of teams that have chosen to rest many key players with small injuries, and it’s opened up a ton of value for DFS purposes. We have many of those to discuss here, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

The point guard and center positions have been featured heavily in these articles all season, and that’s the case again here. The simple fact is, it’s nice to fit point guards into shooting guard slots when they’re SG-eligible, and it’s equally as friendly to put a center in a PF-eligible position when you can. That has been the optimal strategy for me all season, and it allows you to fit in five point guard or center-eligible players.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Pascal Siakam (TOR) $8,500
With Kyle Lowry out for the next week or so, Siakam should be running the show in Toronto (or Tampa). With him off the floor, Sia is second on the team with a 25 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. He’s been crushing it recently, too, scoring at least 50 fantasy points in three of his last six games. This matchup isn’t too bad either, and we’ll discuss that more later on.

Jordan McLaughlin (MIN) $4,400
With Ricky Rubio and D’Angelo Russell expected to sit here, McLaughlin should get another start at point guard. He was brilliant in that role over the weekend, collecting 39 DraftKings points across 41 minutes of play on Saturday. That’s impossible to fade at this price, and we love that he faces the worst defense in the NBA here.

Derrick White (SAS) $6,300
White has been slow to come around this season, but he appears to be hitting his groove. The talented guard has now scored at least 26 fantasy points in six straight games, averaging 32.4 DK points per game in that span. That’s the guy we’ve been waiting to see, and it directly correlates with LaMarcus Aldridge leaving town. Cleveland is a great matchup, too, with the Cavs ranked 26th in defensive efficiency since the opening month of the season.

Moses Brown (OKC) $7,100
With Al Horford, Isaiah Roby, and Darius Bazley all sitting here, Brown should feast in the frontcourt. That doesn’t even include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, making Brown one of the focal points of the dismantled offense. Moses is averaging 35 DK points per game in this expanded role and has legit 20-20 potential. We certainly don’t mind him facing a Detroit team that surrenders the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers, either.

Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) $7,300
It sounds like Houston will be without John Wall and Eric Gordon again here, leaving KPJ as the primary ball-handler. With those guys off the floor, Porter is flirting with a 30 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. He’s actually averaging 30 fantasy points per game with this new team, and that seems to be his floor here with so many players out of the lineup.

Hamidou Diallo (DET) $5,200
Detroit has made some strange moves this season, but trading for Diallo was not one of them. He’s been an underrated player throughout his career, and he’s showing that he’s one of the best players in this rotation right now. He’s averaging 33 DraftKings points per game in his first three outings with the Pistons and should be hungry against the team that traded him.

Isaiah Stewart (DET) $4,000
It looks like Detroit is starting to go into rebuild mode, giving Stewart more minutes over recent weeks. In fact, Stew is playing 23 minutes a night over his last five fixtures, getting that total up to 27 minutes in the most recent outing. If you get 27 minutes from someone this talented, you’re way ahead of the pack, with Stewart averaging 0.9 DK points per minute. We also can’t overlook that OKC surrenders the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers as well.

Kevin Love (CLE) $5,700
Love has been off-limits all season, but he’s looked pretty good in his most recent return. He’s got 53 combined fantasy points in his two games since returning from injury, dropping a 30-spot in his most recent outing. He did that in limited minutes, and the trend would indicate that he should be ready for 25 minutes here. If he plays that much at this price, we love him against a Spurs team that owns a 25th OPRK against opposing power forwards.

Tyler Haliburton (SAC) $6,500
Haliburton should be the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. He is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game before an injury a month ago and has essentially been the same player over the last three weeks. What makes him more enticing now is his increased role, seeing more minutes and starting for the injured Marvin Bagley III. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 25th-ranked T’Wolves defense, either.

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Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,600: Towns has actually been the de facto playmaker for this beat-up T’Wolves roster, posting a career-high in assists. That’s huge for a scoring and rebounding monster, scoring at least 49 fantasy points in six-straight games while averaging 58 DK points per game in that span. That’s really scary for the Kings, with Sacramento owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
  • De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,200: We expect this Minnesota-Sacramento game to be a close shootout, and that makes Fox and Towns some of the best options out there. Much like Towns, Fox has been cruising recently. Over his last 19 games played, Fox is averaging 46 DK points per game and should duplicate that against a terrible Timberwolves defense.
  • Fred VanVleet (TOR) $8,100: We talked about how Siakam is running the show in Toronto, but FVV thinks differently. He’s actually leading the team with a 27 percent usage rate with him off the floor and is playing over 35 minutes a night in this role. We absolutely love that against a Wizards team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Christian Wood (HOU) $8,800: The stats will tell us to play Wood, but this isn’t a good spot. He actually entered Sunday’s game with an ankle issue and looks unlikely to play here in the second half of a back-to-back set.
  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,000: Ingles is averaging 22 DK points per game in a reserve role this season, despite posting a 30-point average as a starter. With him assuming bench duties here, we need to fade him.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $5,900: Now that Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are both rolling, there’s no room for THJ. He’s playing just 26 minutes a night over his last three games and is barely cracking 35 percent shooting in that span.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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