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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (4/3)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (4/3)

If you’re addicted to sports like I am, this is your day! We have pretty much any sport you can imagine, with an eight-game schedule making up this NBA slate. It’s essentially the dealer’s choice in terms of which DFS sport you want to play, but we’re going to keep grinding out NBA DFS profits like we have all year. There’s a lot to discuss with this slate, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings partner-arrow

Most Value Per Dollar 

Here’s the shocking statement of the day: The center position is stacked! Yes, DraftKings continues to misprice all of these centers, and it’s hard to understand why. That position scores the best on DK, and they all seem to be about 10 percent too cheap. That’s going to force a ton of them into the next section, so let’s go ahead and talk about it!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Kristaps Porzingis (DAL): $8,300
This price is slightly higher than I was hoping, but KP is one of the best options on the day. We’ll start by talking about the matchup, with the Wizards playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. That should allow Porzingis to feast, with The Unicorn posting a ridiculous 51-point average across his last four fixtures.

Robert Covington (POR): $6,500
Here he is again! As you guys know, I have a man-crush on RoCo, and it completely blows my mind that he hasn’t gotten the $7K price tag he deserves. He’s actually scored at least 35 DraftKings points in four of his last five games while generating a 34-point average over his last 15 games played. Facing an OKC team with half of their roster missing certainly doesn’t worry us either.

Moses Brown (OKC): $7,300
We mentioned that OKC is missing a lot of players, and the Al Horford benching has forced Brown into starting center duties in OKC. In this role, Moses is averaging 37 DK points per game in less than 30 minutes a night. That’s a sublime seven-game stretch, and we have to believe this youngster will only get better the more he plays. The matchup is fantastic, too, and we’ll discuss that more later on.

Josh Richardson (DAL): $4,800
Richardson and RoCo are regulars in my bar, and it’s easy to see why. J-Rich is averaging 28 DK points per game across his last 12 outings and gets the best matchup in fantasy basketball here. That makes it hard to believe he’s only sitting around $5K, and we’ll discuss that matchup more in the studs section.

Isaiah Roby (OKC): $6,200
We foreshadowed Brown’s brilliant matchup earlier, and the same goes for Roby. The Thunder gets to face the Portland Trail Blazers, who currently rank 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. That’s scary with Roby seeing an expanded role, thanks to Horford, Darius Bazley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luguentz Dort all expected to sit here. Roby has been rolling recently, too, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in back-to-back games.

Jrue Holiday (MIL): $7,700
Holiday is one of my favorite players in the NBA, and we have to use him when he’s cruising. He’s doing just that right now, combining for 104 DraftKings points over the last two games. That puts him in play against anyone at this price, especially against a Kings team with the NBA’s worst defensive rating.

Myles Turner (IND): $5,900
Turner has sat around $6K on DraftKings all season, and it honestly makes no sense why. Since the opening week, he’s been averaging 32 DK points per game and has scored at least 29 DK points in seven of his last nine games. While San Antonio does have a solid defense, we love that they attempt more two-pointers than almost any other team, giving Turner more chances at blocks than ever before.

Tyrese Haliburton (SAC): $6,200
Haliburton averaged 30 DK points per game before an injury a month ago and pretty much has the same average over the last two weeks. That alone makes him a good value at this price, but his role has been on the uptick with insertion into the starting lineup and a bump in playing time. That should benefit him against a Milwaukee team that sits fourth in pace and 21st in points allowed.

Jaden McDaniels (MIN): $4,900
McDaniels is another rookie who’s seen his role skyrocket, entering the starting lineup as the T’Wolves go-to power forward. That has allowed him to score at least 21 DK points in five straight games, posting a 28-point average in that span. That’s obviously all you can hope for from such a cheap player, particularly with Minnesota in full-on rebuild mode.

Nerlens Noel (NYK): $4,900
Noel has recaptured starting center duties in New York with Mitchell Robinson out for the next month. He’s been excellent in this role for most of the season, averaging over 24 DK points per game in his 19 total starts. That’s plenty from such a cheap player, and we certainly aren’t worried about him facing a decimated Detroit roster. In his two games against the Pistons this year, Noel has nearly 80 combined fantasy points.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,900: Giannis is pretty much the best play on every slate, but he’s impossible to fade here. The main reason for that is the matchup, with the Kings owning the NBA’s worst defensive rating. That’s awful news against a guy that is averaging 58 DraftKings points per game across his last 21 outings,
  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,600: It’s either Luka or Giannis, and if you can fit both, you’re way ahead of the pack. The only more fantasy-friendly opponent than Sac-Town might be the Wizards, with Washington ranked 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. That’s terrifying against a guy averaging 52 fantasy points per game since the beginning of February.
  • Tobias Harris (PHI) $8,600: If you want to save a little salary and get a cheaper stud, Toby is your guy. With Joel Embiid off the floor, Harris has a usage rate flirting with 30 percent. That has led to the best stretch of his career, scoring at least 33 DK points in 12 of his last 13 games while averaging 42 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that against a 25th-ranked T’Wolves defense, even if Embiid returns.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jerami Grant (DET) $7,400: Something seems a little off with Grant. He’s actually failed to score more than 31 fantasy points in eight of his last 11 games while scoring 23 or fewer DK points in three of his last four games. We really hate that with Grant facing a Knicks team that ranks Top-5 in total defense while playing at the NBA’s second-slowest pace.
  • Caris LeVert (IND) $7,200: LeVert has struggled to find his role in Indiana, scoring 31 or fewer fantasy points in eight of his 10 games since the trade. That’s about what you’d need from such an expensive player, and that seems particularly unlikely against a top-10 Spurs defense.
  • Terrence Ross (ORL) $7,000: Ross saw a massive price jump with half of Orlando’s roster being traded at the deadline, and we’re going to fade him against the best defense in the NBA here. This game has blowout written all over it, and we find it hard to believe that Ross will get his scoring stroke going in such a bad matchup.
  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,700: We already foreshadowed the blowout potential here, and that really concerns us with everyone in this game. What’s really troubling about Ingles is that he’s far less productive when Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are both in the lineup. His average is nearly 10 DK points lower this season when coming off the bench, and that seems likely to continue here.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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