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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (4/10)

Apr 10, 2021

Kevin Love has two double-doubles in his last three games.

This landscape in the NBA is crazy right now. It seems like half the teams in the league are sending out G-League rosters night after night, and it’s making DFS a tough cookie to crack. The good news is that there’s more value than ever, and we have a ton of it here because of all of these wacky rotations. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

One nice thing about DraftKings is the roster versatility. We discussed in the FanDuel article how we’d love to use a bunch of centers, and that’s actually possible on DK. You can fit up to three at a time depending on their eligibility, and that’s going to be critical with so many great center options out there. With that said, there’s even more value than usual at the wing positions, so let’s kick things off with one of my usuals in my DraftKings articles!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Robert Covington (POR) $5,700:
If you’ve been following me, you know how much I love this guy! RoCo is a regular in my articles, and it’s hard to understand why DraftKings always keeps him so cheap. Over his last 19 games played, Covington is averaging 33 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night. That’s a crazy total from a sub-$6K player, and he should do that again versus a Detroit team that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.

Andre Drummond (LAL) $6,500:
Drummond looks like he’s going to be the focal point of the Lakers offense as long as Anthony Davis and LeBron James remain out. That’s big news for a guy who provided a double-double across 27 minutes on Thursday and has that capability in even the shortest amount of minutes. Dre averaged 45 DK points per game before getting benched, which is amazing from a guy in this price range.

Kevin Love (CLE) $6,100:
I honestly thought Love was done for the year this time last week, but here we are! He’s back and doing his thing! The former All-Star has two double-doubles in his last three games, and it’s scary that he’s doing that damage in about 24 minutes a night. We expect that to rise as the season progresses, and he should be able to do that again versus a terrible Toronto team.

Isaiah Stewart (DET) $4,500:
Big Stew looks like he’s a beast in the making, and if Mason Plumlee is out again here, he’s nearly impossible to fade at $4,500. In the last two starts without him, Stewart has 71.3 combined DraftKings points across 55 minutes of play. He’s proven to be a per-minute monster throughout the year, and we certainly don’t mind that he faces a 28th-ranked Portland defense here, either.

Draymond Green (GSW) $7,100:
Green has quietly had a bounceback year for the Warriors, and he’s been awesome whenever Stephen Curry plays. Curry’s return has opened up Green’s assists big time, averaging about 10 a game when Chef Curry is cooking. That’s on full display by his 36-point average since the beginning of February, and it’s not like a 24th-ranked Rockets defense is going to stop him.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) $4,200:
We mentioned how shorthanded the Lakers are in the Drummond write-up, and it’s done wonders for KCP’s value. The former Bulldog is averaging 27 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night in his last four fixtures. That’s all you can ask for from such a cheap player, and Brooklyn is a solid matchup behind their 25th-ranked defense.

Kenrich Williams (OKC) $5,700:
The Thunder have the ugliest roster in the NBA right now, playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, and Isaiah Roby. That’s forced Williams into the biggest role of his career, flirting with triple-double averages over his last two games. That has led to a 38-point DK average in that span, making him hard to fade.

LaMarcus Aldridge (BKN) $5,500:
It’s weird that LA has become fantasy relevant again, but it’s clear that he’s motivated playing in Brooklyn. He’s actually scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his first four games with the Nets, averaging over 30 DraftKings points per game. The Lakers look like a tough matchup on the surface, but they haven’t been the same without LBJ and AD.

Theo Maledon (OKC) $5,600:
We mentioned all of the players OKC is missing in the Williams write-up, and it’s done big things for Maledon as well. Over his last eight games played, Theo is averaging over 28 DK points per game in 30 minutes a night. He’s done that damage despite struggling with his shot, and it’s scary to think how good he could be if he finds his stroke.

Kelly Oubre (GSW) $6,200:
Oubre was horrible in his first month with the Warriors, but he’s really turned it on since then. In fact, he’s averaging 32 DraftKings points per game since the beginning of February. That’s a great number from a sub-$7K player, and we love that Houston surrenders the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,900: If the Wizards were a halfway decent team, Westbrook would be vying for some MVP consideration. Amazingly, he’s scored at least 50 DK points in 13 of his last 14 games while averaging a league-best 60 DK points per game in that span. We also expect someone important to sit for Washington here, which only adds to Russ’s value.
  • Devin Booker (PHO) $8,900: Booker has really hit his stride since the opening month, and he’s on a complete heater right now. He’s actually scored at least 32 DK points in 28 of his last 30 games, averaging 41 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s awful news for a Washington team that ranks 27th in total defense while playing at the NBA’s fastest pace.
  • Rudy Gobert (UTH) $8,000: The Kings are one of the best matchups in fantasy basketball. They currently rank dead-last in defensive efficiency while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers. That’s bad news against a stud like Gobert, with Rudy averaging 44 fantasy points per game across his last 18 outings.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Kevin Durant (BKN) $9,100: The Nets are going to be cautious with their superstar. KD played just 19 minutes in his return to action on Wednesday, and it’s hard to see his surpassing 25 minutes here. He can still drop 40 DK points in that amount of time, but his floor is way too low if he’s playing this few minutes.
  • Bradley Beal (WAS) $9,000: This is just a guess, but we think Beal will sit here. This is the second half of a back-to-set, and Beal has said that his hip issue is still bothering him, missing most of the last two weeks. With the Wizards playing for nothing, look for them to play it safe with their superstar.
  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,400: You knew this was coming! Ingles is averaging 30 DK points per game as a starter and just 22 fantasy points per game as a reserve. We expect him to come off the bench here again, and this game has blowout potential written all over it.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.