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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (4/17)

Apr 17, 2021

Tomas Satoransky should be asked to do even more with Zach LaVine out for at least a week.

This week has been wild. Teams are all over the map in terms of motivation, and it leaves us with a ton of question marks for DFS. What’s really frustrating is that these situations will only worsen because more and more teams will inevitably fall out of the race. All of that has led to a ton of resting, and it’s truly bizarre to see some of these rotations right now. We’re going to try to capitalize on that, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

I hate to say it, but we’re back at it with centers and point guards. Those positions have a ton of value on this slate, and that’s going to make up most of this section. Picking forwards will be tough, but things will open up as injury news breaks closer to opening tip.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,800:
It’s funny how quickly things change. Ayton was a bust candidate about a month ago but has truly been one of the best centers in the NBA since then. The big man has actually scored at least 34 DraftKings points in 13 of his last 15 games, providing over 40 DK points per game in those 13 outings. That’s hard to overlook with San Antonio having one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA.

Tomas Satoransky (CHI) $5,300:
Sato has already stepped up as the starting point guard in Chicago, but he should be asked to do even more with Zach LaVine out for at least a week. Since earning that job on March 14, Sato is averaging over 24 DK points per game in 29 minutes a night. That’s likely to be his floor with LaVine out, especially with Cleveland ranked 21st in defensive rating.

Kevin Love (CLE) $6,500:
Love looked done a few weeks back, but he’s come back and played really well since his most recent injury. In fact, he’s scored at least 27 fantasy points in six of his eight games since returning, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in that span. We certainly don’t mind that, with Chicago ranked fifth in pace and 25th in total defense.

Draymond Green (GSW) $7,300:
Green is leading the NBA in assists since the beginning of March, and it’s truly incredible what this guy has been doing since then. He’s also providing over 35 DraftKings points per game and doing that damage without much scoring. He seems to always step up when facing Boston, too, scoring at least 34 DK points in eight of their last 10 meetings.

Cory Joseph (DET) $4,700:
It’s strange that Detroit has given Joseph the starting point guard job, but it’s made him fantasy relevant yet again. The former King is averaging over 31 fantasy points per game in this expanded role, and we love him in the best matchup in fantasy basketball. With that said, he is nicked up, and if he’s out, we like Josh Jackson and Killian Hayes.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,000:
Bro-Lo has been in this article for about a month now, and his production in that span is certainly an encouraging sign. Since March 4, Lopez is providing 28 DraftKings points per game across 28 minutes a night. That’s a monster total from someone in this price range, and we can’t overlook the fact that he dropped 30 DK points in this matchup about a month ago.

Coby White (CHI) $5,200:
White has been relegated to bench duties over the last few weeks, but he might find his way back into a big role with LaVine out of the lineup. He actually has a 25 percent usage rate with LaVine off the floor and should see his minutes rise as well. If you look at the 42 games, he’s played at least 25 minutes, and White is just shy of a 30-point average. That was on full display when he had 27 points, five rebounds, and seven assists on Friday.

Isaiah Stewart (DET) $4,600:
Detroit is obviously in full-on rebuild mode, and it’s forced Stewart into a really nice role. He’s been taking a lot of minutes away from Mason Plumlee, playing 24 minutes a night over his last 11 outings. That’s all you can ask for from such a talented player, especially with Isaiah averaging 32 fantasy points per game as a starter this year. That could definitely be the case again here, and it’s hard to overlook the fact that Washington ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Tristan Thompson (BOS) $4,500:
If Robert Williams is out again, Thompson is a fantastic value. That forced him back into the starting lineup on Thursday, dropping 30 DraftKings points in one of his best games of the season. What makes him attractive here is that Golden State loves to play small and fast, which caters beautifully to Thompson’s style. In 17 career games against Golden State, he’s averaging 8.9 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, flirting with double-doubles averages.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,900: It’s truly insane how good a season this guy is having. Many people may not realize it, but Russ is averaging 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 10.9 assists per game. Those triple-double ways are hard to avoid with the bonus on DraftKings, and he’s actually been even better since the opening month. That’s bad news considering he has two triple-doubles against the Pistons this year already.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,300: Talk about a guy on a heater! Chef Curry has at least 50 DraftKings points in all nine games since his return from injury, averaging 57 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s bad news for Boston, with Curry tallying 38 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, and three steals in this matchup earlier this year.
  • Nikola Vucevic (CHI) $9,800: LaVine swallows up about 25 minutes, 20 shots, and a 30 percent usage rate, leaving Vooch to feast. Vucevic leads the team in usage with him off the floor while providing a ridiculous 1.5 DK points per minute. That’s amazing when you see that he’s scored at least 32 fantasy points in all but one game this year, one of the best floors in the NBA.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Larry Nance Jr. (CLE) $6,700: Nance just returned from injury earlier this week, and it’s clear that his role is not the same right now. He’s come off the bench in both of those and hasn’t cracked 16 fantasy points in either. That’s no surprise when you see that he’s battling Kevin Love, Jarrett Allen, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Dean Wade for frontcourt minutes.
  • Bobby Portis (MIL) $6,600: Now that Giannis Antetokounmpo is back, Portis needs to see his price drop back to where it was before. He’s played 25 minutes or fewer in each of his last five games, and we really don’t like that against a Top-10 Grizzlies defense.
  • Mason Plumlee (DET) $4,900: We already mentioned Plumlee in the Stewart write-up, and it’s clear that he’s becoming victim to this rebuild. He got rested on Friday and has played 21 or fewer minutes in five of his last eight games.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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