DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (4/24)
The NBA season is slowly winding down to an end, but it’s just another DFS day for us! This Saturday card is actually a lighter one, though, with six games making up the night slate. Interestingly, all six home teams enter as favorites, with a few of them being monster favorites. That could lead to some blowouts, and that always worries me for DFS purposes. With that in mind, let’s get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Most Value Per Dollar
This is a tiny slate, and I could only find eight value plays that I really liked. With that said, I love these guys! They are all spread across different positions, and they fit in wonderfully with the stud write-ups I have later on. There is a lot that we need to wait to see, though, so be sure to keep an eye on injury reports as late as possible!
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,600
Ingles has been a regular in this section for me all week, and he’s going to remain in here until Donovan Mitchell returns. The simple fact is, he’s the primary ball-handler when DM is out. In Jingles 17 starts this season, he’s averaging 34 DraftKings points per game in 31 minutes a night. That’s no surprise when you see the uptick in minutes, usage, assists, and shot attempts, making him impossible to avoid against a 28th-ranked Minnesota defense.
Andre Drummond (LAL) $7,500
These teams just played on Thursday, and it allowed Drummond to have his best game in a Laker uniform. He tallied 14 points, 19 rebounds, three assists, and three blocks in that gem, exploiting this Dallas defense without a center. He’s shown that ability in the past, too, averaging 45 fantasy points per game before getting traded. That means he’s a nice value in this price range, and we believe he’ll only get better the more he plays for LA.
Oshae Brissett (IND) $4,200
The Pacers are completely dismantled right now, and it’s forced Brissett into a career role. Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, and Goga Bitadze are all nicked up, which has allowed Brissett to average 38 DK points per game in 34 minutes a night this week. Those are stupendous numbers from someone so cheap, and we love that the Pistons surrender the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards as well.
Armoni Brooks (HOU) $3,800
It looks like John Wall (rest) and Kevin Porter Jr. (COVID) could sit here, which would force Brooks into a start at point guard. Over his last three games played, Brooks is averaging 23 DK points per game in 29 minutes a night. He actually dropped 26 fantasy points in two of those, and that alone would be plenty at this price. If Wall and KPJ are out, that means Brooks will play at least 30-35 minutes, and they’ll keep him in even if it is a blowout.
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $5,900
The Mitchell injury has added a lot of value to these Jazz players, especially Bojan. That has allowed him to score at least 21 DraftKings points in 13-straight games, generating a 34-point average over his last six outings. That means his price is just a bit too low, and we definitely don’t anticipate a 28th-ranked T’Wolves defense to slow him down.
Coby White (CHI) $5,900
White has also been a regular in this section recently, stepping up his game in the absence of Zach LaVine. The former Tar Heel has a 26 percent usage rate with LaVine off the floor, averaging 34 DraftKings points per game across his last five fixtures. That’s the guy we saw early on in the season, and he should continue to produce as long as LaVine’s 30 percent usage rate is out of the lineup.
Will Barton (DEN) $5,800
We were waiting to see if Monte Morris or Facundo Campazzo would be the go-to point guard in Denver with Jamal Murray out, but it’s actually been Will the Thrill! In the last two games without Murray, Barton has 80.5 combined DK points, his best two-game stretch of the year. We adore that in a matchup like this, and we’ll discuss Houston’s horrible defense in the next section.
Josh Jackson (DET) $6,100
The Pistons are in full-on rebuild mode, and it’s turned JJ into a fantasy-relevant player. After another 39-point gem on Thursday, Jackson is averaging 32 fantasy points per game across his last eight outings. What we really love is that he’s the only player we can trust, with Detroit resting numerous players on a nightly basis. JJ is not one of those, and he could gain even more value depending on who they choose to sit here.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,000: Doncic is absolutely crushing right now. He’s scored at least 58 DraftKings points in four straight games, playing some of the best basketball of his career. The most recent game came against these Lakers, in which Don dropped 58 fantasy points in yet another gem. There’s also a chance Kristaps Porzingis could sit, and that would only add to Luka’s intrigue.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,900: This guy is amazing. Jokic is the frontrunner for MVP and leads all players with nearly 60 DraftKings points per game. What’s most impressive is his floor, though, scoring at least 42 fantasy points in all but three games this year. That should be easy to duplicate here, facing a Houston team that ranks fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. In their two meetings this season, Joker has collected 48 points, 28 rebounds, 25 assists, and five steals combined. Woah!
- Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,500: Jimmy Buckets has quietly had a monster season for the Heat, flirting with triple-doubles on a nightly basis. In fact, Butler is averaging 21.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. He’s been even better since his return from injury about a month ago, and that’s bad news for a 20th-ranked Bulls defense.
Notable Players to Fade
- John Wall (HOU) $7,400: Wall has been a really nice bounceback candidate this season, but the Rockets are done. That has me really worried here because Wall played on Friday and seems unlikely to play the second half of a back-to-back set here. That’s worrisome, but he’s also averaging fewer than 22 fantasy points per game over his last three fixtures if you needed any more reason to fade him.
- Jerami Grant (DET) $6,700: The Pistons have chosen to rest Grant in B2Bs like Wall, which means he’ll likely sit here. This diminished role has killed his production even if he does play, posting a 30-point average over his last 10 games. That’s not enough from such a pricey player, and it’s impossible to trust this Detroit team right now.
- D’Angelo Russell (MIN) $6,400: Russell has been relegated to bench duties, and it’s really hurt his fantasy value. That has led to 26 or fewer fantasy points in four of his last six games, playing fewer than 24 minutes a night in that span. That’s scary, but it’s downright terrifying when you see that he faces a Top-5 Jazz defense as a massive underdog here.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.