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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Thursday (4/15)

Apr 15, 2021

Dennis the Menace has sneakily been really good for the Lakers

This is actually my first Thursday article of the season, and I’m ecstatic to cover these slates. The Thursday ones tend to be smaller, but it usually features some of the highlight games of the week. Unfortunately, some of these primetime games have been riddled by injuries, and that’s really unfortunate on a four-game slate. That means the player pool is small, but there’s still plenty to discuss!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

I didn’t realize it until I started filling in the positions, but the center position is stacked again. About half of our value plays come at that position. Using those cheap guys going to be the optimal strategy here, finding value at center while riding expensive guards and forwards. There’s also a ton of uncertainty in terms of injuries, and we’ll mention all of those guys in the fade section.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Dennis Schroder (LAL) $6,300:
Dennis the Menace has sneakily been really good for the Lakers, stepping up in LeBron James and Anthony Davis’s absences. He’s got a 26 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor, averaging over 34 fantasy points per game across his last 15 outings. Boston is far from a scary matchup, too, ranked 15th in defensive efficiency.

Robert Williams (BOS) $5,800:
Williams’ price has been dropping recently, and it’s hard to understand why. The big man has been inserted into the starting lineup, providing a 33-point average over his last 10 games. We love that his minutes have been on the uptick, too, with Rob-Wil averaging 24.4 DraftKings points in just 18.9 minutes a night for the year. The Lakers defense has been a shell of itself since LBJ and AD went down too.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,700:
Ayton has quietly been turning his season around, and we absolutely love this matchup. Let’s start with that, with Sacramento sitting dead-last in defensive efficiency while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers. That’s bad news against a guy like this, with Ayton scoring at least 34 fantasy points in 12 of his last 14 games.

Andre Drummond (LAL) $6,900:
Drum has been struggling with the Lakers, but he has too much potential to be this cheap. We say that because he averaged 45 DraftKings points per game before being benched by the Cavs and can drop a line like that in just 25-30 minutes of play. We also don’t mind that LA is missing so much talent, especially with Drummond leading the team in usage since his arrival.

Isaiah Hartenstein (CLE) $5,500:
It’s weird that Hartenstein has found this big of a role in Cleveland, but here we are! What we like here is that the Cavs are playing the second half of a back-to-back set, which could force Larry Nance to the bench after returning on Wednesday. We love that with Hart averaging 31 fantasy points per game over his last seven outings. It’s also nice that Golden State owns a 24th OPRK against opposing power forwards as well.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,100:
Lopez has been rolling recently, and we love him in this price range. Over his last 17 games played, Bro-Lo is averaging 27 DraftKings points per game. That’s all you can ask for from a player in this price range, and we don’t anticipate a 23rd-ranked Hawks defense to slow him down.

Draymond Green (GSW) $7,100:
Green is one of the league leaders in assists since the opening month of the season, and it’s really impressive how he’s revived his career after a disastrous 2020 season. Since the beginning of February, Dray is averaging 36 fantasy points per game. That’s truly amazing, considering that he’s below 10 points a game in that span, and he has some of his best career numbers against the Cavs.

Kevin Love (CLE) $6,200:
Love isn’t the All-Star we remember, but he’s been playing some good ball since his return. The big man has scored at least 27 fantasy points in five straight fixtures, averaging 32 fantasy points per game in that span. We also mentioned how good of a matchup they have for power forwards in the Hartenstein write-up, and the same goes for Love. If he sits here in the B2B along with Allen and Nance, lock in Hartenstein in every lineup.

Kent Bazemore (GSW) $4,900:
Golden State is missing Klay Thompson and Kelly Oubre right now, pushing Bazemore into the starting lineup. He’s got 53 combined fantasy points in the last two starts and regularly provides 25-30 fantasy points per game when he receives 25-30 minutes of play. The Cavaliers sitting 21st in total defense is nothing to worry about either.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,600: Curry won’t win MVP because of the Warriors record but he’s certainly playing like one. The sharpshooter has scored at least 50 DraftKings points in seven straight outings, averaging 56.3 fantasy points per game in that span. We certainly don’t anticipate a 21st-ranked Cleveland defense to slow him down either.
  • Jrue Holiday (MIL) $8,400: Jrue is one of my favorite players in the NBA and he’s showing why with his recent play. Over his last 10 outings, Holiday is providing over 41 DraftKings points per game. It’s possible that Giannis Antetokounmpo may sit here and that would only add to Holiday’s intrigue facing an Atlanta team with a 30th OPRK against opposing point guards.
  • Devin Booker (PHO) $8,700: Booker has really turned things around in the second half. Despite struggling on Tuesday, he’s averaging 41 DK points per game since the beginning of March. We love that in a matchup like this, with the Kings surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Andrew Wiggins (GSW) $6,900: With Curry balling out, Wiggins’ upside has lowered significantly. In fact, he’s failed to crack 40 fantasy points in six-straight games, averaging 31 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s fine at this price but it really concerns us that he hasn’t surpassed 25 DK points three times in that stretch, too.
  • Evan Fournier (BOS) $5,400: Fournier is currently in the dreaded COVID protocols but there’s some thought that he might return here. Even if he does, we don’t want to use him. He’s averaging just 21 DK points per game since joining Boston and is losing touches to all of these talented players.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trae Young, Deandre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, Kelly Oubre, Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, LeBron James, Anthony DavisBuddy Hield and Richaun Holmes are all worth monitoring.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.