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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Thursday (4/22)

Apr 22, 2021

With only six games on this ledger, it’s pretty hard to fade Luka Doncic.

Wednesday’s slate was downright crazy. We had 12 games make up that wild DFS card, and it was almost overwhelming with all the injury news out there. The good news is that we have just six games here, but there is something to monitor. That happens to be the teams playing back-to-back sets, with Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and San Antonio all playing the second end of a B2B. That means we’re going to get some resting, but we have a good idea of who that will be. With that in mind, let’s break it down!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

While Wednesday’s slate was slightly overwhelming, this one is not. We have a good idea of who will be rested because of the injury reports on Wednesday, and that makes our job so much easier here. What is clear is that we have a ton of great options in the frontcourt. There are 11 players at $9K or higher between power forward and center, while only one five-figure player is between the other three positions. That’s an interesting discrepancy, and it should make lineup construction interesting.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Killian Hayes (DET) $4,200
We actually wrote up Hayes on Wednesday, and he was unfortunately rested, but we’re going right back to the well. It’s actually an even better situation here, with Cory Joseph, Jerami Grant, and Mason Plumlee all likely to sit. That means this is Hayes’ show, which is stellar news since he’s averaging 33 DraftKings points per game since recapturing the starting point guard job.

P.J. Washington (CHA) $5,900
Charlotte is one of the most shorthanded teams in the NBA right now, and it’s leaving Washington as one of the focal points of this offense. That has allowed P.J. to score at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games, which is obviously a stellar total from such an affordable player. Chicago is far from a scary matchup, too, and we’ll discuss that more later.

Coby White (CHI) $5,500
It was unclear who the go-to guy would be in Zach LaVine’s absence, but it’s clearly going to be White. He’s got a 25 percent usage rate with LaVine off the floor, providing a 36-point average since he went down. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 16th-ranked Hornets defense with that boost in production, either.

Cole Anthony (ORL) $6,400
Anthony has been a regular in this section recently, and he’s going to remain in it until his price jumps. The first-round rookie has at least 21 DraftKings points in all seven of his matches since returning from injury, generating a 29-point average in that span. Most importantly, he played a season-high 34 minutes in the most recent game and ran the show for this new-look Magic team.

Talen Horton-Tucker (LAL) $5,100
The Lakers are trying to figure things out without Anthony Davis and LeBron James, and one of the biggest things they’ve discovered is that THT is one of their most valuable players. In fact, he’s averaging 30 fantasy points per game over his last nine games played. He’s done that damage in just 26 minutes a night and that makes this price tag hard to understand.

Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) $6,700
The Magic have gone into rebuild mode, but it looks like Anthony and Carter will be their future. WCJ has actually been their best player since trading away Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, and Evan Fournier, averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game since becoming the starting center. We absolutely adore that against a 27th-ranked Pelicans defense.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,500
Ayton has quietly turned his season around, and his price is a bit too low. The big man has scored at least 33 fantasy points in 14 of his last 17 games, averaging over 40 DK points per game in those 14 fixtures. Boston might sound like a tough matchup on the surface, but they’re missing Robert Williams and traditionally struggle against opposing centers.

Tristan Thompson (BOS) $4,800
We just mentioned how Rob-Will is likely to sit here, which means Thompson should be looking at another start. That has allowed him to play at least 25 minutes in three-straight games, collecting over 22 fantasy points per game in that span. That might not sound like much, but it’s a great total from someone this cheap.

Mattise Thybulle (PHI) $3,300
With Tobias Harris out and Ben Simmons possibly sitting as well, Thybulle might start and play 30 minutes. That’s what it looks like his role will be, collecting 47 fantasy points across 54 minutes in the last two games without Harris. That’s a 27-minute average, and he could definitely surpass that here with someone needing to cover Giannis Antetokounmpo, especially after paying 35 minutes on Wednesday.

Derrick White (SAS) $6,300
White has really turned his season around since the LaMarcus Aldridge trade, playing some of the best basketball of his career. Over his last 14 games, White is averaging 32 fantasy points per game in 33 minutes a night. We can’t overlook that in a matchup like this, with Detroit playing with the shorthanded roster we mentioned prior.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,000: With only six games on this ledger, it’s pretty hard to fade Doncic. We say that because he has at least 44 DraftKings points in 12-straight games, averaging over 50 fantasy points per game in that span. The Lakers have a shell of the defense we saw with their superstars, too, and that’s bad news with Luka averaging 55 fantasy points per game against them for his career.
  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,500: Something always lights up in Embiid’s eyes when he plays the Bucks. They’ve played six times since 2018, with Embiid averaging an absurd 63 fantasy points per game. That’s horrifying for Milwaukee, considering this is their worst defense in that three-year stretch, especially with Harris and Simmons both possibly sitting as well.
  • Terry Rozier (CHA) $8,400: Scary Terry is dominating the ball in Charlotte right now, and it’s no surprise when you see that Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball are both sidelined. That has led to Rozier scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in four-straight games while averaging 55 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that, with Chicago ranked 12th in pace and 21st in total defense.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jerami Grant (DET) $6,900: Grant has been sitting in one end of every back-to-back set recently, and with him playing on Wednesday, we have to fade him here. He’s been struggling anyway, averaging just 30 DraftKings points per game across his last nine outings. Even if he plays, we hate that against a Top-10 Spurs defense.
  • Thaddeus Young (CHI) $5,200: With Nikola Vucevic and Daniel Theis in town, Young’s minutes have been plummeting. In fact, he’s averaging just 21 DK points per game across 18 minutes a night in his last six games played. That’s even more concerning in a B2B set with Thad being one of the oldest guys on this roster.
  • Mason Plumlee (DET) $4,900: Plumlee has been sitting in almost every back-to-back as well, and it seems like a strong possibility he’ll be out here. It’s not like he’s playing well enough to trust him anyway, averaging 22 DK points per game in fewer than 21 minutes a night for the last two weeks.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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