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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Thursday (4/29)

Apr 29, 2021

It’s time for Kevin Porter Jr. to run the show in Houston.

After a huge slate on Wednesday, we’re back to just six games here. What’s frustrating is that we have some of the most annoying teams in the NBA on this ledger. That includes the Toronto Raptors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Detroit Pistons. These teams are impossible to predict, and they truly hate DFS managers with their wacky rotations and injury reports. We’re going to do our best to predict what they will do, but anything could happen.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

We had a rare slate yesterday in which there was a ton of value at the wing positions, but we’re back to the usual here. If you don’t know what the usual is, it’s all the value being at the point guard and center positions. Those two positions are just stacked, and it makes up the majority of the per-dollar plays we’re about to mention. There’s a lot of interesting things to talk about, though, so let’s get into it!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) $7,000
Now that John Wall is out for the rest of the season, it’s time for Porter to run the show in Houston. In the 13 games that Wall has missed, Porter is averaging over 35 DraftKings points per game. That’s no surprise when you see that his usage rate is flirting with 30 percent with him off the floor, and we certainly don’t mind that Milwaukee plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA either.

Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $9,000
The Pacers are missing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner right now, forcing Brogdon into one of the biggest roles of his career. His expanded stat-stuffing has allowed him to average 45 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 outings, and he should continue to be a monster as long as those two remain out. He’s also scored at least 34 fantasy points in all three meetings with the Nets this season, and that’s far from shocking when you see that they rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

Isaiah Stewart (DET) $6,000
We’ve been given a gift by finding out that Mason Plumlee will sit here. That means Stewart will start, and he’s a beast in this role. In his seven starts this year, Stew is averaging 37 DraftKings points per game in just 28 minutes a night. That’s bad news for a Dallas team that essentially plays without a center.

Willy Hernangomez (NOR) $4,100
Hernangomez is always fantastic when Steven Adams is out, and that looks like it’ll be the case again here. In the eight games Willy has played at least 22 minutes, he’s averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game. He’s actually reached that total in two of the last three games, which is an astounding total from someone this cheap. Not to mention, OKC owns a 30th OPRK against opposing centers.

P.J. Dozier (DEN) $5,600
The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and Monte Morris, forcing Dozier into the starting lineup. That’s actually led to a 31-point average over the last two weeks for the wing, and he should continue to play big minutes with so many guys sidelined. Toronto is far from a scary matchup, too, surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.

Isaiah Roby (OKC) $4,700
It’s hard to figure out who will play well for Oklahoma City from a night to night basis, but Roby has been one of their most consistent guys. He’s averaging 30 fantasy points per game over his last three outings and has usurped Moses Brown as the primary center. We absolutely love that against a 28th-ranked Pelicans defense.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,700
Here he is again. Bro-Lo is in this article pretty much every time Milwaukee plays, and it makes no sense why he’s so cheap. The big man is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game for nearly two months now, which alone should boost this price tag $1,000 higher. Houston has been a terrible defense recently, too, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,100
Lowry is another guy that we’re not quite sure about in terms of his status, but he’s an excellent value if he plays. The simple fact is, he was about $1,000 more a few weeks back, and some resting has lowered this tag way too much. He’s averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game for the season, and that’d be one of the best totals out there from a $7K guy.

Oshae Brissett (IND) $5,300
We discussed how Indiana is playing without Sabonis and Turner, and it’s turned Brissett from a nobody into a fantasy asset. The 22-year-old is averaging 37 DraftKings points per game across 35 minutes a night over his last five fixtures. That should continue with this team so shorthanded, and we already discussed how good of a matchup Brooklyn could be.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,800: The Mavericks are yet another team that’s lost many players recently, with Kristaps Porzingis and Josh Richardson missing the last two games. That led to a gem on Tuesday, with Doncic collecting 39 points, six rebounds, and eight assists despite sitting the fourth quarter. Games like that show how scary this guy can be when he’s rolling, especially against a subpar Pistons defense.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,300: Curry is on a roll right now, averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game since returning from injury three weeks ago. That’s terrible news for a T’Wolves defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,100: Towns is another dude who’s absolutely destroying the league right now. Over his last 17 games, KAT is averaging 26.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game. That’s hard to overlook against a Golden State team that ranks second in pace and 21st in points allowed.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,000: This is one of my riskiest fades of the season but bear with me here. The biggest reason I want to fade Giannis is that all of the guys mentioned above. Those guys are in much better spots, and you can’t use salary on all of them. What’s equally as scary is this game script, with Milwaukee likely closing this game in three quarters. You need a full allotment of minutes for Giannis to provide value at this price, and we may be looking at a 30-point blowout against this horrific Houston team.
  • Gary Trent Jr. (TOR) $5,100: Now that all the Toronto starters are back, Trent is back to bench duties. He scored just 5.3 DK points in the last game without all those guys and happens to be dealing with a leg injury.
  • Ricky Rubio (MIN) $4,500: Rubio has just 39.6 combined DK points in his last three games and is taking a backseat to D’Angelo Russell right now.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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