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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (4/13)

Apr 13, 2021

Malcolm Brogdon is an amazing value around $7K, no matter who he’s facing.

DFS is a funny beast. I discussed how much I loved Monday’s slate, but this one is completely different. On the contrary, I kind of hate this one but Monday didn’t treat me well anyway. It took me more time to figure out which players I wanted to recommend than ever before, but maybe that’s a good thing. One reason for the distaste is that we have just six games in total, with many of the top defenses in action. With that in mind, let’s break it down!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

This is one of those rare times where we have good value at every position. The only major weaknesses are at the forward positions, but that tends to be the case on every slate anyway. The good news is that we have two of our three studs at forward positions, so it should be a nice fit with all of these cheaper guys we’re about to talk about.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Andre Drummond (LAL) $6,700
We talked about this yesterday, and we don’t understand this pricing. This a guy who averaged 45 DraftKings points per game before being benched by the Cavaliers, playing at a $9K level. It’s not like he has to compete with bodies for touches in LA, too, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both sidelined. The matchup against Charlotte is stupendous as well, with the Hornets surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $6,700:
Brogdon was one of our highlight plays on Sunday, and he rewarded us with his best game of the season. He finished with that gem with 63 DraftKings points, bringing his season average just shy of 40 fantasy points per game. That makes him an amazing value, around $7K, no matter who he’s facing.

Robert Williams (BOS) $6,000:
The Time Lord has been an amazing player all season long, averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That alone makes him hard to fade in this price range, especially with his recent bump in playing time. Over his last 21 games played, Rob-Will is averaging 33 DK points per game despite playing fewer than 23 minutes a night. It’s scary to think what sort of line he could post against a 29th-ranked Portland defense.

Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,400:
Lowry really struggled when dealing with a foot issue, but a 40-point treasure in his return to action on Sunday is a good indicator of how good he can be. If you take out the last two games that Low was dealing with his foot issue, he’s averaging 38.7 DK points per game dating back to the beginning of February! That’s a tremendous total from someone whose price has dropped way too far, and we haven’t even mentioned that Atlanta owns a 30th OPRK against opposing point guards.

Terry Rozier (CHA) $8,200:
The Hornets are currently missing Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, and Malik Monk, leaving Scary Terry to give his opponents nightmares. He’s flirting with a 30 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor and has his season average north of 35 fantasy points per game. Facing the Lakers looks tough on the surface, but their defense has taken a major step backward since they lost their two superstars.

Talen Horton-Tucker (LAL) $5,300:
We just mentioned how LA is missing their stars, and it’s allowed THT to have the best stretch of his career. In fact, Horton-Tucker has at least 26 fantasy points in four-straight games, providing a 32-point average in that span. We certainly don’t mind that with the Hornets owning a 28th OPRK against opposing small forwards.

Reggie Jackson (LAC) $5,400:
Jackson is a risky pick, but he’s sneakily playing some terrific basketball right now. Over his last 10 games played, R-Jax is averaging 27 DK points per game across 28 minutes a night. We love that in a matchup like this, with the Pacers ranked 20th in total defense.

Darius Bazley (OKC) $5,500:
The Thunder are missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford right now, leaving tons of opportunities for these other players. Bazley was injured himself before returning over the weekend, but he tallied 17 points, nine rebounds, and five assists across 35 minutes in his return to action. He also had nine turnovers, but that’s a good indicator of how much he’s being asked to do for this shorthanded roster.

Robert Covington (POR) $6,200:
You didn’t really think we’d go through this whole article without mentioning RoCo? This guy has been killing this price tag for over a month now, averaging over 31 DraftKings points per game since the beginning of March. It’s not like Boston is a scary matchup either, with the Celtics ranked 18th in defensive efficiency.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $9,400: Talk about a guy that is rolling. DM has at least 50 fantasy points in four straight outings while averaging 54 DK points per game in that span. We adore that in a matchup like this, with the Thunder ranked 22nd in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,200: The stud selections are lacking on this slate, but Tatum has been crushing and gets a spectacular matchup. Let’s start with the opposition, with the Trail Blazers ranked 29th in defensive efficiency ratings. That’s bad news against a guy who’s scored at least 46 fantasy points in three-straight games, generating a ridiculous 56-point average in that span.
  • Paul George (LAC) $8,700: PG13 sat out a couple of games last week because he didn’t have the “pop,” but recent results would indicate that he’s back! He’s scored 51 fantasy points in three straight games and should be hungry against his former team here. In his one game against them last season, PG dropped a 63-spot in his second-best game of the year.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,900: With Mike Conley sitting on Monday, he should be back to starting duties here. That means Ingles is back to his usual bench role, which is scary since he averages 22 DK points per game as a reserve and 30 fantasy points per game as a starter. Not to mention, there’s serious blowout risk as well.
  • Kenrich Williams (OKC) $5,600: Williams was a regular in my articles just last week, but with Darius Bazley and Luguentz Dort both back, his role has started to collapse. He had just 6.8 DK points across 21 minutes in the first game with those two back, and that makes him impossible to trust at this price.
  • Goran Dragic (OKC) $4,600: I love watching the Heat, and when I watch this team, Goran doesn’t look right. It’s really evident in his numbers, though, failing to crack 23 DK points in six-straight games while posting a 16-point average in that span. We hate that against a Top-5 Phoenix defense.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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