DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (4/20)
It’s crazy that we’re still a month away from the finish line. You’d think we were in the final week with how many players are resting and how many teams are tanking, but many teams are getting an early start. That can make things tough for DFS purposes, but it also opens up a ton of value for us! The good news is that we don’t have too many of those teams here, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
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Most Value Per Dollar
The forward positions always tend to be weaker, and that’s certainly the case here. It actually took me forever to find a few that I liked, but I tried to squeeze a few in to spread the love. The late-night game is an absolute hammer, too. Sacramento and Minnesota are likely to play a close shootout, which means you need to have some exposure to that game.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Terry Rozier (CHA) $8,000:
Scary Terry was one of our big plays on Sunday, and he rewarded us with an absolute gem. The simple fact is, he’s doing everything with Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk, and Devonte Graham, all sidelined. All of those guys have led to some monster usage, with Scary Terry scoring at least 52 DraftKings points in three-straight games.
Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $5,800:
With Richaun Holmes out for the foreseeable future, Whiteside should continue to see an expanded role. He actually got a rare start on Sunday, collecting at least 28 DK points for the third-straight game. He’s averaging over 35 fantasy points per game in every game that Holmes has missed this year, and that’s obviously hard to fade at this price. The matchup is great, too, but we’ll discuss that more later.
Wendell Carter (ORL) $6,600:
WCJ has been a regular in this section ever since his trade, and his newfound role has made him a fantasy beast. The big man has scored at least 27 DraftKings points in nine of his last 11 games, generating a 34-point average in that span. All of that looks even better when you consider that Atlanta sits 24th in defensive efficiency.
C.J. McCollum (POR) $8,900:
With Damian Lillard sidelined, McCollum is the man in Portland. He’s got a usage rate north of 30 percent when Dame is off the floor and is averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game in this role since the start of last season. The Clippers are certainly a scary matchup, but it really doesn’t matter when C.J. is playing 35 minutes, taking 20-plus shots, and handling the ball on every possession.
Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,500:
Noel’s lines never pop off the page, but he continues to provide fantastic value for fantasy purposes. The big man has actually scored at least 25 DraftKings points in four straight games, which is right on par with his average in this role. What we really like here is the matchup, with Charlotte surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Cole Anthony (ORL) $6,000:
It’s time for Orlando to give this kid the keys to the car, and that certainly appears to be the case. With Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams both out, he’s the only true ball-handler left. That has led to him starting each of the last two games, dropping at least 35 fantasy points in both. We absolutely love that with Atlanta surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Bruce Brown (BKN) $4,900:
It sounds like Brooklyn could be without James Harden and Kevin Durant, forcing Brown into the role that made him fantasy relevant early on. That means we expect him to play at least 25 minutes here, which is huge since he’s averaging 28.3 DK points per game in the 22 games he’s played at least 25 minutes. That looks even better in this matchup, with the Pelicans ranked 27th in defensive efficiency ratings.
P.J. Washington (CHA) $5,400:
We already mentioned how shorthanded Charlotte is, and now that P.J. is back, he should be one of the focal points of the offense. He actually ranked second on the team with a 26 percent usage rate in his return, dropping 45 DK points in one of his best games of the year. He averaged close to 30 DK points per game with all those guys earlier in the year anyway, and that makes that 45-point gem even less surprising.
Reggie Jackson (LAC) $5,600:
Reggie has quietly been a perfect player for the Clippers this year. Trading Lou Williams is the thing that’s opened up his role, averaging over 29 DraftKings points per game across his last eight outings. We love that with Portland surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing point guards.
Robert Covington (POR) $5,800:
It wouldn’t be an article of mine if RoCo weren’t in here! While he has had some duds recently, it has lowered his price a bit too much. We’re still talking about a guy who has a 31-point average for nearly two months now and should be asked to play extra minutes to oppose Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. That was certainly the case when RoCo provided 36 DK points across 36 minutes in this matchup two weeks back.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,600: The T’Wolves are downright terrible, but it’s certainly no fault of Towns. The big man has scored at least 53 fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 games, averaging 54 DK points per game in that span. We absolutely love that in a matchup like this, with the Kings owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA. If Towns gets ruled out, Naz Reid is one of our favorite plays of the day.
- Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,900: With KD and Harden both expected to sit here, Irving is an absolute lock. Kyrie has a 35 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor while averaging an absurd 1.6 DK points per minute. The best part of this play might be the matchup, though, with New Orleans surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
- De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,800: We anticipate this game being an absolute shootout, making Towns and Fox the best plays on the board. The speedy point guard has been rolling recently, scoring at least 43 fantasy points in 24 of his last 27 games while generating a 48-point average in that span. We can’t overlook production like that against anyone, especially a Minnesota team allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Notable Players to Fade
- D’Angelo Russell (MIN) $6,000: Russell has been relegated to bench duties in Minnesota, and it’s killed his fantasy value. He hasn’t surpassed 24 minutes in each of his last four games and is averaging just 20 DraftKings points per game in that span. So while this looks like a great matchup, we can’t trust the role.
- Jusuf Nurkic (POR) $5,600: Talk about not trusting a role. I love Nurkic and believe he’ll be a fantasy asset sooner rather than later, but he’s not playing enough right now to use him. In his 10 games since returning, Nurk has only cracked 30 DK points once and is playing just 21 minutes a night in that span. Just fade him until we see a 30-minute game.
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