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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (4/6)

Apr 6, 2021

Bogdan Bogdanovic is in the best stretch of his career right now.

Monday’s slate was tough to navigate, but there are some things that I love here. There are eight games making up this slate which is the perfect amount for the player pool. We also don’t have to deal with teams like the Thunder, Magic, and Rockets, which is really nice with all of those rebuilding teams doing crazy things with their rotations. There is still plenty of value to be had, though, so let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

The center position is once again the deepest on the slate. There are some good wing options, though, but keeping an eye on injury reports will be key. A stars and scrubs lineup is the simple way to approach NBA DFS right now because there are so many cheap options out there with these wacky rotations.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

T.J. McConnell (IND) $5,300
If Malcolm Brogdon sits again here, McConnell is my favorite per-dollar play on the board. If you look at the 14 games McConnell has played at least 29 minutes, he’s averaging an absurd 38 DraftKings points per game. That’s big news for a guy that’s played at least 32 minutes in back-to-back outings, especially when you see that he has at least 26 fantasy points in four straight fixtures.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) $6,200
With John Collins and De’Andre Hunter nicked up, Bogey is in the best stretch of his career right now. He’s scored at least 45 fantasy points in three of his last four games while posting a 43-point average in that span. We love that with New Orleans ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.

Robert Williams (BOS) $6,800
We love this guy. The Time Lord is averaging 1.4 DK points per minute for the season and has been an absolute beast since Boston rewarded him with starting center duties. He’s now scored at least 32 fantasy points in all five starts he’s made, generating a 42-point average in that span. Look for him to play big minutes once again with someone needing to cover Joel Embiid.

Robert Covington (POR) $5,800
RoCo is undoubtedly my most written-up player, and he’s going to remain in these articles until he’s $7K. The defensive stud is averaging 33 fantasy points per game across his last 17 outings and deserves the price tag I mentioned before. Facing the Clippers is tough, but because RoCo provides his value through defense, it might be a good matchup since he’ll have to play so many minutes to guard Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.

Myles Turner (IND) $6,200
Turner remains around $6K on DraftKings, and we’re going to ride him until he gets a little more expensive. His 31-point average for the season speaks for itself, with that being 5X value on its own. What we love here is the matchup, though, with Chicago surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. In his two meetings with them this season, Myles is averaging 33 fantasy points per game.

James Johnson (NOR) $5,200
The Pelicans are one of the most beat-up teams in the NBA, dealing with Zion Williamson, Steven Adams, and Brandon Ingram’s injuries. Those injuries have left this rotation very thin, forcing JJ into a huge role. He’s now started three-straight games and has scored at least 28 fantasy points in each of them. If those three remain out, get Johnson into your lineups!

Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,200
Lopez and RoCo have been in these articles a ton, and it’s easy to understand why when we dive into Bro-Lo’s numbers. The former Stanford standout is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game across his last 14 outings. That’s all you can ask for from such a cheap player, and we’ll discuss this majestic matchup later in the article.

Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,900
Now that Kyle Lowry is out for the next week or two, FVV has taken over ball-handling duties in Toronto. With Lowry off the floor, FVV leads the team with a 28 percent usage rate. He’s also averaging 1.2 DK points per minute with Lowry off the floor and is playing over 35 minutes a night when he’s out. If we get that rate and that workload, FVV should flirt with 50 DK points against a struggling Lakers defense. If VanVleet gets ruled out, Malachi Flynn is a fantastic value play.

Ivica Zubac (LAC) $5,400
Zubac has been starting at center in Los Angeles for the last few weeks, and it’s done wonders for his fantasy value. Over his last 11 games played, Zoo is averaging 28 DK points across 29 minutes a night. It’s hard to overlook that 28-minute workload from such a talented player, particularly against a 29th-ranked Portland defense.

Hamidou Diallo (DET) $5,300
Detroit is desperately trying to find players to fill their rotation, and Diallo has been one of their best players since acquiring him. In fact, he’s averaging 33 fantasy points per game in this expanded role and could play even more here. We say that because this is the second half of a back-to-back set, and that could force some of these guys to sit.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,700: Giannis just had one of the best games of the season over the weekend, dropping 73 fantasy points on the Trail Blazers. Amazingly, that’s the 16th time he’s scored at least 57 fantasy points in his last 22 games played, posting a 60-point average in that span. We love that against a Golden State team that ranks second in pace and 23rd in points allowed.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,500: Jokic is the most reliable player in fantasy basketball, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in all but two games this season. That’s led to his absurd 59-point average, making him hard to fade against a Detroit defense that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
  • Trae Young (ATL) $9,100: Trae Day just had an ugly game over the weekend, but it lowered his price just enough. Before that dud, Young had at least 47 DraftKings points in five of his previous six games. That should be rather easy to duplicate against that putrid Pelicans defense we talked about in the Bogdanovic write-up.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,500: Simmons has really been struggling recently, and we can’t trust him now that Joel Embiid is back. He actually hasn’t reached 40 fantasy points in eight-straight games now, which is pretty much the minimum you’d need from such a pricey player.
  • Aaron Gordon (DEN) $6,300: Gordon has a usage rate below 20 percent with his new team, and it’s going to be hard for him to provide value with such little ballhandling opportunities. After playing de facto point guard in Orlando, he’s now the third or fourth option in Denver behind Jokic and Jamal Murray.
  • Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,200: We’ve talked about this a lot, and we don’t like how little Brooks does outside of scoring. Over his last seven games, he is averaging less than 10 fantasy points per game when you combine his rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. That’s unacceptable, and it means he can only provide value if he’s knocking down shots at a high rate.
  • Lauri Markkanen (CHI) $4,900: Markkanen has been relegated to bench duties with Nikola Vucevic in town, and it’s destroyed his fantasy value. He’s scored 14 or fewer DK points in three of his last five games and will continue to see his minutes and shots drop the more Vooch gets involved.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.