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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (4/21)

Apr 21, 2021

Joe Ingles is forced into a start and should see a ton of usage.

If you’re into things like DFS chaos, this might be the perfect slate for you. We have 12 games in total which is the largest slate I can remember. That means we have a massive player pool to tackle, and we have to deal with silly teams like the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, and Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s literally impossible to guess who will suit for these clubs, so very few of those players will find their way into this article. With that said, the value will open up on those teams because of that, so keep an eye on reports up until the first tip!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Needless to say, every position is swamped. We have 24 teams playing and a million players making up the prize pool. That’s why I’ve tried my best to spread the love and include multiple players at every position. The point guard position is definitely the deepest, though, and it would be wise to fit in at least three of those guys into your lineup simply because of their steady production.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Goga Bitadze (IND) $4,200:
It’s sad that an injury to Myles Turner has us at this spot, but it’s fantastic for a guy like Goga. The big man provided 28 DraftKings points across 21 minutes in the first game without Turner and has a 26-point average in every game he’s played at least 18 minutes. We totally expect that here, and we definitely don’t anticipate a 23-ranked Thunder defense to slow him down. If Goga is out, just ride Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,400:
Ingles has been in our fade section a lot, but he’s always in the value section whenever Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley is out. DM is the one sidelined here, forcing Ingles into a start and a ton of usage. He’s actually got 88 combined fantasy points in the two games since Mitchell got injured and has a 32-point average as a starter this year. Houston being ranked fifth in pace and 26th in total defense only adds to Ingles’ intrigue.

C.J. McCollum (POR) $8,800:
McCollum is running things with Damian Lillard out. C.J. has a usage rate just shy of 30 percent with him off the floor, scoring at least 42 fantasy points in the first two games without him. That’s hard to fade from someone in this price range, and as a Denver fan, I can tell you that this guy eats Nugget meat at ease.

Killian Hayes (DET) $4,100:
Hayes is one of the best values on the board in this price range. He’s become the starting point guard in Detroit, scoring at least 28 DK points in the last two games since earning this role. The simple fact is, this team is in rebuild mode, and he has the keys to the car now. UPDATE: Hayes has been ruled out. We believe Saben Lee and Josh Jackson are good fill-ins for him.

Will Barton (DEN) $5,700:
It was unclear who would take over ball-handling duties in the absence of Jamal Murray, but if Monday’s game is any indication, it will be Barton. He had 28 points, six rebounds, and seven assists in that stellar outing and showed that sort of potential a few weeks back. He actually averaged 30 DraftKings points per game in a month span between March and the middle of April, which alone is enough at this price tag. We love that he faces his former team, which happens to be a club that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,200:
All the talk in New York is around Julius Randle, but Noel has quietly been a huge piece for them. The big man has at least 23 fantasy points in five-straight fixtures, generating a 32-point average in that span. That’s a heck of a total from someone so cheap, and getting to face a 25th-ranked Hawks defense only makes him more enticing.

Bruce Brown Jr. (BKN) $5,200:
We already know that James Harden and Kevin Durant will be out here, but Kyrie Irving may sit in the second half of a back-to-back set as well. We like him with Harden and KD out, but if Irving is out too, Brown is arguably the best play on the board. That means he’ll play a ton of minutes and take on a ton of ball-handling which is fantastic news when you see that he’s averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in the 23 games he’s played least 25 minutes.

Coby White (CHI) $5,600:
White was in the doghouse this time last week, but now that Zach LaVine is sidelined, White is one of the primary playmakers on this team. He’s got a 25 percent usage rate with LaVine off the floor, averaging 35 fantasy points per game since LaVine went down three games ago. That should be easy to duplicate against a 22nd-ranked Cavaliers defense.

Goran Dragic (MIA) $5,200:
Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are both nicked up, and it’s revived The Dragon’s season. He’s combined for 37 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists over the last two games, and if either of those guys is out here, we believe he’ll stuff the stat sheet yet again. That looks even better with San Antonio owning a 22nd OPRK against opposing point guards.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: Jokic is the clear-cut frontrunner for MVP right now, and it’s easy to see why when you look at his gem on Monday. The Serbian center dropped 79 DraftKings points in that epic performance, giving him a 61-point average over his last nine games played. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 29th-ranked Portland defense that he manhandled in the 2019 playoffs either.
  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,900: Russ has returned to the MVP candidate that we saw a few years back, posting triple-doubles on a nightly basis. That has led to him scoring at least 56 fantasy points in 19 of his last 21 games, providing an absurd 62-point average in that stretch. That’s bad news for a Golden State team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA, with the Wiz sitting up top.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,500: To say Curry is on a heater would be a drastic understatement. Since returning from injury, Chef Curry has scored at least 50 DraftKings points in 11-straight games, averaging nearly 60 DK points per game in that span. That’s bad news for the Wizards, with Washington ranked 26th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) and De’Aaron Fox (SAC): We actually had both of these guys in our studs section yesterday, and since they play again here, we’re going right back to the well. Both guys are right around 50-point averages over the last month, and both should thrive against some of the worst defenses in the NBA. If you’d like more stats, refer to yesterday’s article!

Notable Players to Fade

  • Ben Simmons (PHI) $7,800: Simmons sat out Monday’s game with an illness, and he’s been making fantasy managers sick of his recent play. The Australian has 39 or fewer fantasy points in 13 of his last 14 games, which is the minimum you’d need from such an expensive player. Not to mention, it likely won’t get any better against a Top-5 Suns defense here.
  • John Collins (ATL) $6,700: Collins just returned from an ankle issue on Sunday, and it looks like the Hawks are going to take it slow. He had just 11 DraftKings points in 21 minutes of play, and we don’t want to trust him until he looks like the old Collins we know and love.
  • Moses Brown (OKC) $6,000: Moses was the talk of the fantasy basketball community two weeks ago, but now that Darius Bazley is back and Tony Bradley is stealing some of his minutes, he’s really fallen off. In fact, Brown has 0 points over the last two games averaging 7.8 DK points per game in just 18 minutes a night. Obviously, that makes him an easy fade until his price plummets or his production skyrockets.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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