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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (4/28)

Apr 28, 2021

Bojan Bogdanovic has been firing up shots recently.

Tuesday’s slate was one of my best of the season, and I’m ready to keep rolling here. I’m actually in the midst of many of my season-long playoffs, and it has me zoned in more than usual. That’s big news on a slate like this because we have 10 games to digest. That means there’s a lot to discuss, so let’s break it down!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

I rarely say this, but there’s a lot of value at the wing positions. There have been so many point guards that have gotten injured recently that it’s allowed these wings to handle the ball a lot more. Our top recommendation on the board is the anthesis of that, so let’s start with Bogey!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) $7,600
Atlanta was already shorthanded with Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter out, but it looks like they’ll be missing Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, and Brandon Goodwin here as well. That leaves Bogey as the only ball-handler left, and he’s already been dominating this offense. Over his last 16 games played, Bogdan is averaging 40 DraftKings points per game in 36 minutes a night. That’s hard to overlook with his usage rising even more here.

Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $6,400
What a feat by mama Bogdanovic! Getting both of her sons at the top of my article has to be her greatest accomplishment. Jokes aside, Bojan has been firing up shots recently, and it’s really no surprise with Donovan Mitchell’s 25 shots missing from the lineup. That has allowed Bojan to average 15 shots a game over his last eight outings, generating a 30-point average in that span. We love this matchup, too, and we’ll discuss that shortly.

Marcus Morris (LAC) $6,100
Morris has been a pleasant surprise this year when Kawhi Leonard sits, and if Paul George is out as well, Morris is almost impossible to fade. With both of those guys off the floor, he leads the starters with a 26 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. Without those guys on April 21, Morris had 39 fantasy points to back up all of these statistics.

Mike Conley (UTH) $7,600
UPDATE: Conley has been ruled out, so this should be Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson’s show! We foreshadowed this great matchup in the Bojan write-up. Utah gets to face the Kings here, who happens to own the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Andre Drummond (LAL) $7,400
It’s taken Drummond some time to adjust to life in LA, but he’s starting to feel it now. The big man is averaging 40 fantasy points per game over his last five fixtures, which is actually below his season average. That’s plenty at this price, and he’s back to his guaranteed double-double ways. We certainly love that against a Washington team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $4,800
The Nuggets have lost three ball-handlers over the last month, and it’s made Campazzo fantasy relevant. They’re currently missing Will Barton, Jamal Murray, and Monte Morris, forcing Campazzo into five-straight starts. While he hasn’t gone off in that stretch, Facu has at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last four games, which is all you can hope for from a sub-$5K player. The matchup is stupendous, too, and we’ll discuss that in the studs section!

P.J. Washington (CHA) $6,800
The Hornets are finally playing Washington at the center position, and that completely changes his fantasy game. That has allowed him to score at least 34 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games, averaging 46 DK points per game across his last two outings in this new role. We love that against a Boston team that has one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA.

Ben Simmons (PHI) $7,700
This is more about the matchup than anything. The Hawks allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and they won’t have anyone to cover an athlete like Simmons with how shorthanded they are. We also like that Sim has dropped below $8K, and that’s hard to understand with his triple-double capabilities in a matchup like this.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,400
Noel is one of the most underpriced players out there. He’s been the regular starter ever since Mitchell Robinson went down and has been playing at a $6K level for a few weeks now. Over his last eight games, Noel is averaging 32 DraftKings pointed per game, providing a ton of value through the sheer defense. We obviously don’t mind that Chicago owns a 28th OPRK against opposing centers either.

Mo Bamba (ORL) $5,200
Wendell Carter Jr. has been nursing an ankle issue for a week now, and if he sits here, Bamba is one of the best values of the day. He’s actually a good play whether WCJ plays or not, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game across his last nine outings. That even includes a dud where he got injured, and this guy will provide at least 1.2 DK points per minute when given the opportunity.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: The Joker is the best player in fantasy, and he’s tough to avoid right now. We say that because of all the injures in Denver, with Jokic averaging 1.7 DK points per minute with all of those guys off the floor. That’s led to his absurd 58-point average, and we certainly expect him to duplicate that here against a 28th-ranked Pelicans defense. In their two matchups this year, Jokic is averaging 65 fantasy points per game.
  • Jaylen Brown (BOS) $8,500: It sounds like Boston could be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum here. That means Brown will be the de facto point guard and could be looking at a 30 percent usage rate while attempting 20-30 shots. We love a role like that from an $8,500 player, especially against a subpar Charlotte defense.
  • Ja Morant (MEM) $8,200: We’ve been waiting for this 21-year-old to start going off, and we’re finally in the midst of that breakout. Over his last five games played, Ja is averaging 29.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. That’s horrifying for Portland, surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing point guards.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,700: I really have a hard time figuring this guy out. He’s scored 30 or fewer fantasy points in four of his last six games and has shown limited upside throughout the year. We hate that against a Top-10 Clippers defense.
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $5,400: Now that Richaun Holmes is back, Whiteside is fully back in the doghouse. He’s actually picked up a DNP in the last two games and certainly won’t play more than 15-20 minutes if he even steps on the floor at all.
  • Lauri Markkanen (CHI) $4,400: Markkanen was struggling before Nikola Vucevic and Daniel Theis showed up, and now he’s impossible to use for DFS purposes. He’s failed to crack 22 fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games and won’t play the minutes he needs to succeed.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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