FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Wednesday (4/28)
I certainly hope that you had Anfernee Simons in your DFS lineups last night. Simons tied the NBA’s record for consecutive made three-pointers at 13, and he scored an impressive 43.8 FD points (12.5x value).
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Tonight’s 10-game slate features only one matchup with a total above 230: POR/MEM (240), per BettingPros. Fortunately, a pair of games have totals slightly above 225: LAL/WAS (228.5) and NOR/DEN (229.5). Another pair have totals above 220: UTH/SAC (222.5) and LAC/PHO (221).
The other five matchups all have disappointing totals. Two sit at or below 210: ORL/CLE (210) and CHI/NYK (209.5); two more sit below 215: SAS/MIA (213) and ATL/PHI (215). While I don’t intend to target many players in those games, I’ll still include a few of them below.
On the injury front, the Celtics will remain without Kemba Walker, and it’s uncertain whether Jayson Tatum and Robert Williams will suit up after missing yesterday’s game. The Jazz still won’t have Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley, too. For instant DFS injury insight, give @betonthegame a follow.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
Jaylen Brown (BOS) $8,100
Yes, Tatum will probably return to Boston’s lineup tonight. However, on the off chance he doesn’t, Brown is a huge value at this price. The Hornets surrender the most made threes per game, and Brown would lead the team in made (2.7) and attempted (6.9) threes per game if both Tatum and Walker sit. It helps that the Hornets surrender the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to small forwards, where Brown spends a majority of his minutes.
Jordan Clarkson (UTH) $6,300
With Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley sidelined, the Jazz will have to trust their depth options at guard. Since the Kings give up the third-most FDPPG to shooting guards, Clarkson has a good shot to hit value against this price.
R.J. Barrett (NYK) $6,100
Okay, the Knicks and Bulls won’t combine for many points. That’s fine. Barrett’s price is still absurdly low — he averages 29.8 FDPPG (4.9x value). With the Knicks playing hard to avoid the play-in tournament, don’t be surprised to see Barrett have an upside showing tonight.
Aaron Gordon (DEN) $5,200
The Nuggets and Pelicans have the slate’s second-highest total, and it’s safe to expect Gordon to do lots of damage. He has hit 5x value in three of his last four outings — despite playing fewer than 25 minutes in two of them — and he could easily do so again. That’s because the Pels surrender the 11th-most points per game to power forwards and rank fourth-worst in defensive efficiency.
Nerlens Noel (NYK) $5,100
Again, the total isn’t attractive, but the Bulls seriously struggle against centers. They give up the eighth-most FDPPG to the position, including the third-most raw points and the fourth-most blocks. Noel has hit 5x value against this price in eight of his last ten games, and he is a fantastic option at this price.
Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $4,300
Nuggets may have added Austin Rivers to offset the loss of Jamal Murray, but it’s Campazzo who has done most of the work. He has hit 5x value against this price in three of his last four appearances. Look for him to do so again because the Pelicans give up the fourth-most FDPPG to point guards.
Maurice Harkless (SAC) $3,800
Harkless may not score that many FDPPG, but the Kings have given him a ton of run each night. Since he entered the starting lineup, Harkless has averaged 28.7 minutes per game, and he has played 30-plus in his last two. He isn’t a risk-free option on this slate, especially against Utah’s tough defense, but he has enough floor is cheap enough to help you fit in some studs elsewhere.
Gary Harris (ORL) $3,600
The Magic aren’t great, but Harris has been one of their leading offensive contributors in recent games. He has hit 5x value in five of his last seven games (since he fully entered Orlando’s lineup), and I don’t hate this matchup for him. The Cavaliers are bad enough for this game for Orlando to have a shot, and they may leave him in the game a little bit longer than usual.
Brad Wanamaker (CHA) $3,500
Uh… revenge game much? Wanamaker entered the game and helped Charlotte close a 17-point halftime deficit to just a four-point one, scoring 13 points and getting six assists in the process. Wanamaker has hit 5x value against this price in three of his last four games, and he’ll have a bit of extra motivation to play well tonight.
Isaac Okoro (CLE) $3,500
Why is Okoro this cheap? Collin Sexton remains out, and he should continue to get some extra run as a result. Sure, Okoro has had a down few games — he failed to hit 5x value in four of his last five outings — but he had just gone for 5x value in the preceding four. Since the Magic give up the second-most FDPPG to both shooting guards and small forwards, look for Okoro to easily outproduce his bargain-bin salary.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,100: With the sky-high total, look for the soon-to-be MVP to carry the Nuggets to another win as they try to stay out of the play-in tournament. New Orleans isn’t a great matchup for centers, but he recorded a triple-double the last time New Orleans came to play in Denver.
- Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,200: Should Tatum play, he is a must-start against Charlotte’s exploitable three-point defense. If he can find his shot from deep, he could have slate-winning upside, especially since the Hornets give up the second-most FDPPG to power forwards.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $8,100: Well, the day has come where Lillard costs the same amount as Ja Morant. While he has struggled to hit value recently, you’ll rarely find Lillard this cheap, and the Trail Blazers were able to keep him fresh in the front half of their back-to-back because it was a blowout.
- Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,900: Gobert shouldn’t be this cheap. The Jazz are pressed for depth, and the Kings give up the ninth-most FDPPG. The game’s high projected total is another reason to consider spending up for a reasonably priced Gobert.
Notable Players to Fade
- Paul George (LAC) $9,900: The Clippers probably won’t have Kawhi Leonard back, but George’s salary has (rightfully) skyrocketed in his absence. However, that’s a recipe for disaster against Phoenix’s top-tier defense — they give up the fewest FDPPG to shooting guards and small forwards.
- Bradley Beal (WAS) $9,500: Beal has a tough matchup against the Lakers, and since his salary has started to trend back up, you’ll want to leave him out of your lineup. That’s because the Lakers surrender the second-fewest FDPPG to shooting guards.
- Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,500: The Miami Heat give up the fewest FDPPG to point guards, so don’t expect much out of Murray tonight.
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