FanDuel NBA DFS Strategy Advice (4/16)
Nothing like a Friday slate to earn some dough before the weekend. After a simple four-game slate yesterday, we have a 10-game main slate tonight. While 11 games are being played today, I will not be including the Pacers/Jazz game, as it starts earlier and is not included in most contests. Since there are ten games, make sure you really love your lineup before submitting it because a lot of value will make itself available before tip.
Early on, The Pelicans/Wizards game should reach the highest point total on the slate at around 240+, so plenty of value can be derived from either team. Beyond that, I see value in Thunder, Hornets, and Clippers players.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary.
Tyler Herro (SG – MIA) $4,900
In a wonderful matchup, the sophomore Heat guard looks primed to return solid value for his $4,900 price tonight vs. the Timberwolves. While previously dealing with a foot injury, Herro appears to be okay handling a normal workload. I expect the Kentucky product to reach right around 30 points, with a ceiling right around 45. He makes a fine cash play and an even better GPP play due to his ability to reach a ceiling.
Bismack Biyombo (C – CHA) $3,500
The Hornets center finds himself in a juicy matchup, as the Nets offer an increased pace of play and a bad defense. All you need for Biyombo to return 5X value is 17.5 FanDuel points, a number he’s reached in each of his last two appearances vs. tougher opponents. Tonight, I see him more capable of reaching 6X value, and his ownership will be quite low with the bigger slate and so many options at the center position.
Terry Rozier (PG – CHA) $7,000
In another “target players playing the Nets” spot, we have Scary Terry. The Hornets guard went off last game, tallying 54.4 FanDuel points against the Cavaliers. While I don’t expect him to run that back, his usage rate has consistently sat around 25%, so he will be given plenty of opportunities to produce over his expected 34-38 minutes played.
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG – OKC) $3,4600
I consistently cover the Thunder guard as a value play, but with his price so cheap and his minutes consistently reaching 20+, he is quite a low-risk option. I’d prefer him more so in cash lineups simply because his ceiling isn’t exactly the highest, but I still see him perfectly capable of reaching 6X value.
Isaiah Roby (PF – OKC) $4,100
In his two games back from injury, Roby hasn’t performed the best, but I think this is a solid buy-low spot for the Thunder power forward. Presuming he starts, Roby should see the floor for around 25 minutes, and at such a low price, the risk isn’t high at all, especially considering how we’ve seen two floor games out of him recently.
Rudy Gay (PF – SA) $3,900
The 34-year-old is in one of the best matches of the entire slate. His usage rate has been all over the place, and for that reason, I see him more of a GPP play with a little bit higher of a risk. His minutes consistently sit around 20, and I expect him to score just over 20 FanDuel points, with a ceiling of 35.
Reggie Jackson (PG – LAC) $5,600
Coming off a thrilling game on Wednesday, Reggie Jackson is poised for another solid outing. Jackson’s usage rate has seen a steady uptick and nearly reached 30% last game. I see the Clippers’ point guard as a great cash or GPP play, especially if Kawhi Leonard is out with his foot injury. Facing off against a difficult 76ers defense, Jackson should be low-owned and provide some solid leverage as well.
Caleb Martin (SF – CHA) $3,500
Martin potentially offers the best value out of anyone from the position with such a favorable matchup in the notoriously difficult small forward spot. With the injuries impacting the Hornets, Martin should see more time on the floor. He is an exclusive GPP play for me, however, because despite being able to reach 38.5 FanDuel points two games ago, he only reached 6.5 last time out. Martin is in a great punt spot but also can potentially return ridiculous value.
Sekou Doumbouya (PF – DET) $3,500
If you’re looking for a risky punt spot at power forward, Doumbouya is your guy. With the injuries impacting the Pistons, Doumbouya should garner the start. He has shown what he can do when he tallies 20 minutes, which is how many minutes I expect him to reach, if not more. He is still unproven, so use him exclusively in GPP spots.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Bradley Beal (WAS) $8,400: In his last four games back from injury, Beal has shown up and posted 34 and 31 real-life points, respectfully. In a high-paced matchup against a sub-par defense, Beal should see more than 35 minutes, and he can still reach over 5X value with his price of $8,400.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: With the ample amount of value in this slate, Jokic gives you a perfect spend-up opportunity. Against the Rockets, Jokic might score every point, and I can’t even see Houston putting up a fight. The Nuggets center has the highest ceiling of the slate and essentially has a floor of 50 FanDuel points.
- Kyrie Irving (BKN): $9,700: Last time out vs. the 76ers, Kyrie went off for 60 FanDuel points. Now, against a banged-up Hornets team, I can easily see him having another electric outing. His usage has been quite high, and the Nets might be the highest-scoring team on the slate, giving Kyrie a solid floor.
Notable Players to Fade
- Anthony Edwards (MIN) $7,600: In late March/early April, Edwards was putting up 40+ fantasy games left and right, but now his inconsistent outings make him a bit too risky for me at his elevated price. The Heat represents a difficult matchup for opponents, and if Karl-Anthony Towns returns to the lineup, the Timberwolves’ rookie will only see his usage decrease.
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,300: Considering Beal is $2,900 cheaper than Westbrook and projected to score a similar amount, I recommend finding other options that won’t ruin your ability to budget your lineup. I already mentioned Kyrie Irving as a solid option at the point guard spot, but I see Luka Doncic ($10,200) and Damian Lillard ($8,600) as options that should score similarly to Westbrook, at a much lower price.
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @ryancoleman_98.