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FanDuel NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Thursday (4/1)

FanDuel NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Thursday (4/1)

With the NBA trade deadline now behind us, it’s time to get back to normal for NBA DFS, correct? Wrong. There are many injuries that teams are dealing with, causing DFS players to operate the NBA as if it was a minefield right now. Heading into Thursday’s schedule of games, a handful of notable players in the player pool could be on the sideline in street clothes.

Despite the variety of obstacles that we have to overcome, I’ll be giving some advice to help you get a head start on Thursday’s main slate on FanDuel. Just as a reminder, NBA DFS is very volatile right now, and the players chosen in this article could have their outlooks trend upward or downward at any moment, given the news that is released throughout the day. You can follow me @skyler_carlin on Twitter to ask me any questions you may have.

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Most Value Per Dollar

Following a massive 10-game slate on Wednesday, there is a modest seven-game slate of games for the NBA on Thursday. The slate gets underway with what is expected to be a high-scoring affair between the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons. To conclude the night, the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets will square off in a clash of two of the Western Conference’s best teams.

Upon diving into the slate, the point guard position will be a popular one to pay up at, with a ton of studs priced near the top. For the power forward position, if Zion Williamson is ruled out for the New Orleans Pelicans, then it could be a position to live in the mid-t0-low tier when manufacturing lineups.

With injuries playing a crucial part in NBA DFS right now, there is value to be had at various positions. As of this moment, guys like Paul George, John Collins, Joel Embiid, Jarrett Allen, and Larry Nance Jr. have all been ruled out on Thursday. Besides those guys, Bradley Beal, Lonzo Ball, and Williamson are in danger of being sidelined for Thursday’s contests.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros. Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Draymond Green (GSW): $6,600 at MIA
The decision to play Draymond Green is completely contingent on whether or not Stephen Curry plays. Since Green doesn’t contribute much in the scoring department, he’s reliant on grabbing rebounds, dishing out assists, and getting you plus-three points for steals and blocks on FanDuel. While Green sees a slight uptick in rebounds when Curry is out, he sees a massive decline in assists (3.51 fewer assists) when Curry is sidelined. With Curry back in the lineup for the Golden State Warriors, Green should be able to hit 5x value at his price tag of $6,600.

Rui Hachimura (WAS): $6,000 at DET
Rui Hachimura could be finding his groove right now as he’s earned 37+ FD points in three out of his past four games. The second-year forward has seen his role for the Washington Wizards expand recently as he’s averaged 37.9 minutes per game since March 13th. If Beal is forced to miss another game for the Wizards on Thursday, Hachimura should continue being the second scorer on the team alongside Russell Westbrook, making him a decent value at $6,000 against the Detroit Pistons.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NOP): $5,800 vs. ORL
Along with the injury to Zion that could cause him to miss Thursday’s game, the Pelicans have also been without Ball in recent games. Amid the absence of Ball, Stan Van Gundy has elected to give Nickeil Alexander-Walker more minutes, which he has taken advantage of. In the 240.9 minutes that Alexander-Walker has played without Williamson or Ball on the floor, he’s seen a 26.5 percent usage for the Pelicans. If one of either Ball or Williamson is designated as out, Alexander-Walker has achieved 5x value at his current price in seven out of his last nine outings.

Michael Carter-Williams (ORL) $5,300 at NOP
Another player with a hyphen in his last name playing in Thursday’s bout between the Pelicans and the Orlando Magic is Michael Carter-Williams. After a game where he was held scoreless versus the Los Angeles Lakers on March 28th, Carter-Williams exploded for 44.9 FD points against the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday. Even though Carter-Williams isn’t a cerebral scorer, he should have no trouble – especially with an expanded workload – producing against a New Orleans team that allows the second-most FD points per game to point guards.

Danilo Gallinari (ATL) $5,200 at SAS
The Atlanta Hawks will be without Collins on Thursday, leaving them extremely thin in the frontcourt. Whenever Collins isn’t on the floor, Danilo Gallinari has been one of the Hawks’ main beneficiaries. Gallinari sees a solid 24 percent usage when Collins is on the sideline, which is the team’s second-highest. Sitting at $5,200 on FanDuel, Gallinari seems like a pretty safe bet to hit 5x value versus the San Antonio Spurs, with Collins set to miss at least Thursday’s contest.

Terance Mann (LAC) $5,100 vs. DEN
Paul George has been dealing with a nagging foot injury, forcing the Los Angeles Clippers to insert other players into the rotation. With George, Patrick Beverley, and Serge Ibaka missing time, Terance Mann has seen more run with the Clippers in recent games. Mann has surpassed 5x value in five out of his last six games, including the past two games that George has missed. It should be noted that playing Mann can be risky as the Denver Nuggets have surrendered the seventh-fewest FD points per game to shooting guards in the last 30 games.

Saben Lee (DET) $5,000 vs. WAS
The Pistons are in full rebuild mode and are giving extended minutes to most of their younger players. Saben Lee has been handed a starting role, but his minutes have been inconsistent in the past four games. If Lee can crack the starting lineup again against the Wizards, he’ll get a chance to play in a pace-up game versus a Washington squad that has been the fourth-worst team against point guards in terms of FD points allowed per game in the past 15 games.

Cody Zeller (CHA) $4,600 at BKN
Attacking the Brooklyn Nets in the paint has proven to be one of the rare ways to cause fits for the second-seed in the Eastern Conference. While Cody Zeller isn’t a dominant big man, by any means, he’s more than capable of stuffing the stat sheet. Zeller played in 20+ minutes for the first time on Tuesday since returning from a two-game absence on March 24th. We need Zeller to exceed 20+ minutes again for him to give us massive value at the center position on Thursday.

Isaiah Hartenstein (CLE) $4,000 vs. PHI
Isaiah Hartenstein made his debut for the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday versus the Utah Jazz, pouring in 34.3 FD points. While Hartenstein made only two of his eight shot attempts on Monday, he snagged 14 rebounds, and he recorded a team-high seven assists. Given that Nance, Allen, and Kevin Love are out for the Cavaliers again, Hartenstein is a free square at the power forward position.

James Wiseman (GSW) $4,000 at MIA
Just by hearing the Warriors speak about James Wiseman, they realize he’s a 19-year-old rookie who’s being thrown into the NBA amid an unusual season. Wiseman hasn’t had the rookie campaign he envisioned having, but he’s still playing a decent-sized role with the team. The first-year center has garnered 25+ minutes in four straight games, and if he can avoid foul trouble, he should be able to get 20+ FD points against the Miami Heat. If you’re someone who prefers to pay down at center most nights, Zeller and Wiseman look to be viable – but risky – options.

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Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $9,400 vs. GSW: As the regular season continues to roll along, the Heat continues to battle their way into a better spot in the Eastern Conference. For Miami to claw their way into a higher seed, Bam Adebayo will have to dominate for the rest of the season. Luckily for the Heat and Adebayo, the Warriors have given up a whopping 64.56 FD points per game to centers in their last seven games.
  • Trae Young (ATL) $8,700 at SAS: When the Hawks have been sans Collins, Gallinari has helped filled his role at the power forward position. But the player who sees the biggest increase across all metrics when Collins is out is Trae Young. The three-point extraordinaire carries a valuable 38.1 percent usage whenever Collins isn’t on the floor. It’s hard to see Young not paying off his price tag versus a Spurs team that has surrendered the third-most FD points to point guards in their last seven games.
  • Brandon Ingram (NOP) $8,000 vs. ORL: If Williamson is indeed forced to miss at least a game for the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram becomes an intriguing play on Thursday. Ingram boasts a 31.3 percent usage when Williamson and the possessions he has the ball in his hands grows when Ball isn’t on the court either. The value that Ingram brings on Thursday is completely reliant on the statuses of Williamson and Ball.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000 at LAC: Due to the injuries to LeBron James and Joel Embiid, many believe Nikola Jokic could be the front-runner to win MVP this season. Jokic has been sensational this year, and he’s been a consistent option in NBA DFS. However, you can probably get away with not paying up for Jokic on Thursday as there are better mid-to-low tier guys at the center position. He’s also reached 5x value at his current hefty price tag just two out of the past four games.
  • Tobias Harris (LAC) $8,300 at CLE: Tobias Harris has shown that he’s one of the most underrated players in the NBA since Embiid has been out with injury. Alongside Ben Simmons, Harris has helped keep the Philadelphia 76ers afloat in the Eastern Conference. While Harris looks to have a positive matchup against the Cavaliers on Thursday, there’s a decent chance for a blowout, limiting the playing time for Harris. Even though you could insert Harris into your lineups for a solid 40+ FD points, he could also burn you if he rests part of the second half.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Skyler Carlin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Skyler, check out his archive and follow him @skyler_carlin.

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