The calendar flips to June in Week 9, which is crazy. The season is flying by and it’s going to continue to do so. Many fantasy analysts will tell you that Memorial Day is about the time to start making judgments on players as well as the time to start taking the standings more seriously. For example, if you’re in a shallow enough league, it might be time to drop Luis Castillo instead of waiting for him to turn it around. We can’t wait forever, after all.

It also might be time to start getting a bit aggressive with trade offers, especially if you need to make up ground in a certain category. We now have two months worth of sample sizes from players. It isn’t perfect, but it should be enough to formally evaluate where your teams are at.

If you’ve been a patient player up until this point, then credit to you. It isn’t easy to stick with your preseason projections when everyone is overreacting to the first few weeks of April. Now is the time to change gears, though, if you think your team needs it. There’s still a lot of baseball left to play and plenty of time for the standings to flip upside down. But it needs to happen one week at a time. Let’s start with Week 9.

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1. League-wide BABIP
I talked openly about my concerns over the state offense in MLB as April drew to a close. We had a years long trend of the strikeout raise rising with the league-wide batting average falling. Additionally, we had a new ball thrown into the equation this year. The early results were startling, headlined by a dramatic reduction in league-wide BABIP. That number after April was .283, which is a dramatic shift from the typical .295 figure we’re use to seeing. Could the new ball, combined the previous trends we’ve been witnessing, really alter offense this much?

Luckily, May has seen things shift back to “normal.” The league-wide BABIP this month has been .292, which makes a lot more sense. BABIP tends to rise each month as the weather gets warmer and it’s no secret that April was unseasonably cold this year. Now, while it appears we’ve avoided a drastic shift in our beloved game, that doesn’t mean there aren’t lessons to be learned. Which brings us to…

2. League-wide HR/FB rate
What hasn’t changed from April to May is the home run to fly ball rate around the league. After checking in at 13.4% in April, that number has actually dropped to 13.2% in May. Now, this is still the Juiced Ball Era, so historically this is a high rate, but it’s a far cry from the 15.3% mark we witnessed in 2019.

This is where I think the ball has come into play. It seems as if MLB has successfully slowed the rate of home runs. Offense was up in May but we didn’t gain many more homers. We are witnessing higher exit velocities, but the ball isn’t carrying as much. It also seems as if the league has made it easier for pitchers to gain movement leading to more strikeouts, but we’ve been heading in that direction for a while now.

To summarize, offense picked up in May, but that shouldn’t have been a surprise. Offense always picks up every month throughout the summer — up until September. The home run rate didn’t change that much, though. So while this isn’t as drastic of a change in offensive environment as April suggested, this also isn’t 2019. The other changes to our game have created an enormous pool of “usable” starting pitchers, which are now the most easy-to-obtain commodity in fantasy baseball. I want to be trading as many as I can for scarcer assets (proven hitters, high-end closers, etc.)

State of offense in MLB thread

I was pretty worried about April. League-wide BA and K% continued to trend in opposite directions, and league-wide BABIP was an unprecedented .283

This number is usually around .295, and it led to questions about the impact of the new ball

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) May 28, 2021

3. Padres’ seven-game schedule
San Diego draws seven games in Week 9, which instantly makes them worthy of consideration when it comes to streaming hitters. The matchups are decent (three games against the Cubs and four against the Mets), but the biggest reason to give their bats a look is for the stolen bases. Entering Friday here are the teams with the most steals in MLB this season:

 
It’s clear that the Padres want to run, and that it’s part of their team philosophy. Steals, after all, are driven by intent. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are obviously household names, but consider adding/buying some of their less known options if you’re looking for speed. Jurickson Profar is widely available right now. As is…

4. Tommy Pham‘s buy-low window
I’m identifying the veteran outfielder as this week’s top buy-low target. Sure, Francisco Lindor and Kyle Tucker still have claims as noteworthy alternatives, but Pham has recently begun heating up. He has been under performing his xwOBA all season long so there’s a decent chance he’s available in 12-team leagues. For the year Pham is hitting .206 with a .639 OPS, but over the past week he’s hitting .308 with three stolen bases. Add in the seven-game schedule with the potential of him continuing to run, and he makes for an easy player to want to get in on early right now.

5. Dylan Cease‘s week-winning upside
The right-hander has posted some inconsistent results this year, but everything clicked for him on Thursday night. Cease generated a hilarious 29 swinging strikes while tossing six innings of one-run ball. Oh, and he had 10 strikeouts. The underlying numbers have been suggesting a turnaround is coming and it finally happened. In Week 9 he draws two starts against the Indians and Tigers. He needs to be started everywhere.

6. Two-start streamer… Merrill Kelly?
There aren’t many (any?) great two-start options for Week 9, which leads us to Kelly. I’m as surprised as you are that I’m even recommending him, but the recent results haven’t been bad. The 32-year-old has fired of seven consecutive outings allowing three runs or less. While not all of those have qualified as quality starts, he has at least been serviceable. There was even a 12-strikeout game against the Dodgers mixed in. The biggest selling point for using him next week, though, is the matchups. Starts against the Mets and Brewers are about as strong as it gets right now. Of course, I prefer Kelly in a points league, but he might just be the best of the available streaming options regardless of format.

7. Chris Paddack‘s fantasy heartbeat
The final two-start SP I’ll talk about today is Paddack, who has been a lot better since returning from the COVID-19 injured list. Through four outings he has allowed just three runs over 19 innings. Some of these starts were abbreviated as the Padres built his arm back up on the fly. The strikeouts haven’t exactly been there, but the young right-hander has gained something more valuable: confidence. That link is to a San Diego Union-Tribune piece about Paddack’s resurgence (okay that might be a strong word but there’s no denying he looks like a better option now than he did one month ago).

The piece points out that Paddack’s fastball has more life lately and that he’s using his curveball more. It hasn’t led to him becoming a star pitcher again (at least not yet) but it’s a start. In Week 9 he draws the Cubs and Mets for a two-start week. I’d be tempted to use him if I had him, but more importantly these outings will tell us if it’s time to take him seriously again.

8. White Sox play eight games
Due to a Monday doubleheader the White Sox are scheduled for eight games in Week 9. They’re the only team scheduled to play this many, which means that getting their hitters into our lineups could give us an advantage. We’re obviously starting their studs, but Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn should be given weekly lineup consideration as well. Madrigal, in particular, has a chance to play in all eight contests.

9. Coors check-in
As always, I’m going to note how we can use the outrageous environment of Coors Field to our advantage. Currently the Rockies are lined up for six home games — three against Texas and three more versus Oakland. This puts all of their hitters onto our radar for Week 9. C.J. Cron is worth starting. So is Garrett Hampson. And Brendan Rodgers is worth streaming too.

10. Christian Yelich‘s back
I don’t think the 2018 National League MVP is right. He went on the IL in early-May because the back injury was believed to be long-term, yet he began a rehab assignment just days later. He returned on May 18th when the Brewers were playing in an American League park and thus had the luxury of the DH, but entering Saturday he has started just 3-of-6 games. Milwaukee is planning to give him rest days, which tells me everything I need to know. Another IL stint could send his trade value plummeting. I’d be looking to sell before that happens.

11. Alek Manoah‘s encore
The prospect folks needed this one. It seemed as if we had a stretch of several season where a high percentage of top prospects debuted and instantly smashed. Yet in 2020 and the early part of 2021 that hadn’t been the case. Of course, an easy conclusion to draw is that the absence of a minor league season had something to do with it. Luckily, Manoah rewarded prospect hunters with a dazzling debut on Thursday afternoon. The 23-year-old registered seven strikeouts over six scoreless innings. The most impressive part was that his changeup, which is believed to be his third best offering, looked excellent. Nick Pollack of Pitcher List has a great breakdown of Manoah’s first start here. He needs to be in lineups for next week’s showdown against the Marlins.

⚾️ NEW ⚾️

This week's Prospect Report features a rough draft for a new top-20 list

Notes on Alek Manoah, Sixto Sanchez, Jo Adell, Vidal Brujan, Jarren Duran, and more…

My latest for @FantasyPros https://t.co/x9QbuPGrql

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) May 26, 2021

12. Other prospect callups
Speaking of prospects, let’s shift our focus from Manoah to who I believe could be the next difference-making prospect in redraft leagues, and that’s Vidal Brujan of the Rays. The versatile defender has been lining up at both second base and all over the outfield with Triple-A Durham this spring. He has even played some third base, too. Entering the weekend Brujan has seven homers, nine steals, and a .321 batting average in 20 games. He entered the season viewed mostly as a speedster, but the pop has been notable. Outside of Wander Franco, Brujan is the prospect I’m most excited to stash right now. The power/speed combo could be lethal for fantasy purposes. Tampa Bay is notoriously tough to predict, but I think we see Brujan by mid-June.

Vidal Brujan is suchhhh a fun player to hype up .. here’s HR No. 6 pic.twitter.com/6LmEnIx2Zi

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) May 19, 2021

13 – 15. Third basemen moving down the ranks

Eugenio Suarez (SS/3B – CIN)
As I mentioned above it isn’t 2019 anymore. That’s the last time we saw Suarez have an elite offensive campaign — 49 homers and a .930 OPS to be exact. However, since the start of 2020 the results just haven’t been there. We thought he might’ve gotten off to a slow start due to his recovery from a shoulder injury last summer, but the weak output of 2021 has led me to dismiss that notion. He enters Memorial Day Weekend ranked in the bottom 10th percentile or worse in xBA, K%, and whiff-rate. The 11 homers are nice but I can’t blame folks for moving on in roto leagues.

Matt Chapman (3B – OAK)
Another player who just hasn’t looked the same for a couple of years, Chapman is actually over performing his very weak wOBA (.300 compared to .294 xwOBA). Again, strikeouts are the main culprit. In 2018-19 Chapman’s K% was between 21.9% and 23.7%. Over the past two seasons that number is between 31.7% and 35.5%. Preseason expectations need to be adjusted.

Alec Bohm (3B – PHI)
We knew the batting average was due to regress after he posted a .410 BABIP as a rookie last summer. And the batted-ball data has proven to be a bit unlucky thus far (.247 wOBA compared to .316 xwOBA). The issue is that Bohm hasn’t improved in other areas, mainly in the power department. He hit just four homers last year and now his xISO has regressed from the 52nd percentile across baseball to the 43rd. Oh, and he’s walking less while striking out more. Bohm needs to turn things around in a hurry for him to maintain any value in standard 12-team redraft leagues.

16 – 17. Hitters to stream

Joc Pederson (1B/OF – CHC)
The slugging lefty had a two-homer game earlier this week. In typical Pederson fashion, though, he also had a bunch of 0-fers. I mention him here because his xwOBA has been trending up over his 50-100 most recent plate appearances. The Cubs have seven games in Week 9 and we always want to get in front of these power surges from streaky bats.

Trevor Larnach (OF – MIN)
Another hitter who the data suggests is due for a breakout is the lefty-swinging outfielder on the Twins. No, not Kirilloff, the other one. Larnach arrived with less fan fare than Kirilloff but he’s still a top-100 prospect. Known for his patience at the plate, Larnach suddenly ranks within the 98th percentile of max exit velocity. Additionally, his .495 xSLG (.404 SLG) really stands out. We need to monitor the playing time once Minnesota is fully healthy, but it has been there so far. The Twins have a seven-game scheduled against the Orioles and Royals in Week 9. I prefer him over Pederson straight up.

18. Blue Jays limited to five games
Whereas we highlighted the White Sox as a team to use players form for Week 9, the Blue Jays are the team to shy away from since they’re limited to five games. They’re the only team playing five games, actually. Marcus Semien has been too hot to sit, but fantasy players might want to think twice about using Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

19. A potential Ke’Bryan Hayes return
The young third baseman who took our breath away last season and in spring training as well, Hayes is finally eligible to return from his wrist injury on June 3rd, which is Thursday. The 24-year-old top prospect is hitting .385/.429/.769 with three extra-base hits so far on his minor league rehab assignment. The Pirates have said they want to treat this as if he’s building up during spring training, which is why he’s been playing there for a while already. Fantasy managers shouldn’t start him, but a return to the big leagues is certainly in play.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is eligible to return from the 60-day IL on Thursday, June 3rd

So far on his rehab assignment:

14 PA
.385/.429/.769
1 HR
2 2Bs

Picking up right where he left off..#LetsGoBucs

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) May 29, 2021

20. xwOBA percentile leaders among RPs

As always, we’ll close with this week’s Statcast leaderboard. Today we’re focusing on relief pitchers. The below list (in descending order) shows which relievers have the best xwOBA so far in 2021:

• Matt Barnes
• Josh Hader
• Richard Rodriguez
• Daniel Hudson
• Aroldis Chapman
• Tyler Rogers
• Mark Melancon
• James Karinchak

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Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.