Now that we’re more than a quarter through the season, we need to remember how critical it is to not tie our expectations of each player solely to what they’ve done over the young season. It’s a little easier to do this with hitters since some quality bats that were slumping in April have improved this month and the inverse is true as well for hot, lesser-known athletes who have come back down to earth a bit over the last couple weeks. It’s generally a bit simpler to see the trajectory hitters are on right now, but this is more difficult with hurlers. With scoring being down across the league, we’ve seen much more solid pitching than usual, so there are bound to be more flukes among the position.

In the end, however, it’s up to us to use the metrics we have available from this season and previous years to see which buy-low candidates are merely being unlucky and should ascend in value and decipher with sell-high candidates have inflated production and are on the cusp of collapsing. Our featured pundits attempt to do that again this week. Read on below to see who they recommend you should trade for or send away.

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Q1. What one player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?

Luis Castillo (SP – CIN) 
“Chances are the manager who rosters Castillo in your league has had enough, especially after Tuesday’s start where the right-hander gave up three earned in five innings. This could be your last chance to buy low, however, as a look under the hood reveals some encouraging trends from that outing against the Giants. Castillo registered season-highs with 11 strikeouts and 21 swinging strikes. Additionally, his season-long 4.26 xERA suggests he hasn’t been nearly as bad as his actual 7.44 ERA would indicate. Castillo was a consensus second-round pick entering the season, which means I’d be looking to offer up hot-starting SPs in the range of Aaron Civale, Alex Wood, and Robbie Ray.”
– Brendan Tuma (FantasyPros)

“It has to be Luis Castillo and not just because of the draft capital invested in him. Whereas his ERA is hideous, Castillo’s 4.19 SIERA is palatable and not far above his career norm. His velocity is where it was in 2019 and warmer weather is coming. He’s probably been rage-dropped in some leagues, but at this point offering another solid, but less exciting starting pitcher who isn’t destroying your ratios such as Pablo Lopez or Aaron Civale would get the job done.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

Dylan Bundy (SP – LAA) 
“Last year, Bundy had a 3.80 SIERA, a 27% strikeout rate, and a 6.4% walk rate. This year, he has a 3.79 SIERA, a 24.7% strikeout rate, and a 6.5% walk rate. And yet his ERA of 6.02 this year is nearly three runs higher than his ERA of 3.29 last year! Other than the fact that he’s given up a few more barrels this year, there’s nothing inherently different about Bundy’s profile from his breakout 2020 campaign. Given that he’s got a ridiculously low 57.2% strand rate, he’s due for some positive regression. I would try to sell high on someone like Jesse Winker or swap him with Tyler Mahle if I could.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Jose Berrios (SP – MIN) 
“Berrios and the Twins have not gotten off to a great start in 2021, but there’s time for them both to turn things around. He has always been a player with highs and lows. The current 3.91 ERA is slightly deceiving since his FIP is 3.53. The strikeout rate is still elite and the Twins will eventually break this cold spell, including being one of the worst home teams in baseball. I’m willing to sell someone like Zach Plesac for him.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Q2. What one player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?

Blake Snell (SP – SD) 
“This isn’t necessarily a sell-high in terms of the season-long results, but I’d try and use Snell’s most recent outing as a chance to rid my shares of him. While the former Cy Young Award winner finally went six innings for the first time since July 2019, we need to acknowledge that it came against the Rockies on the road, which is as easy of a matchup as there is. Snell’s struggle to complete even five or six innings in most starts absolutely kills his chances at wins and quality starts. His 13.7% BB rate is the highest of his career and his xERA (4.36) suggests that he’s been a bit lucky (3.79 ERA). I’d trade him for the aforementioned Luis Castillo as well as some 2021 breakouts such as John Means, Carlos Rodon, and Kevin Gausman.”
– Brendan Tuma (FantasyPros)

Randy Arozarena (DH/OF – TB) 
“Arozarena is in the midst of a ridiculous hot streak, with three home runs and eight RBIs over his last two games, and his OPS is up to a near season-best .829. But feasting off of a depleted Mets staff and the Orioles’ pitching will inflate anyone’s numbers, and Arozarena still has a 54.2% ground ball rate, 12th highest in the league. He’s hitting the ball hard, but he also has a .209 xBA and .350 xSLG, both significantly lower than his actual numbers. I’d swap him for an underperforming pitcher like Luis Castillo, but I would also see if I could swap him for his teammate, Austin Meadows.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Yermin Mercedes (C/DH – CWS) 
“Mercedes is a great story of a late-age breakout, but regression comes for us all. It’s not about skepticism or unwritten rules, it’s about the 75 points his batting average is outperforming his xBA. He’s already slowing down a bit, batting .273 in May as opposed to .415 in April. Any non-superstar who gets off to such a scorching start is a sell-high candidate and he’s no exception. Since Mercedes occupies no defensive home, a struggling position player with a higher ceiling like Dominic Smith might make sense.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

Casey Mize (SP – DET) 
“Mize enters the weekend with a 3.69 ERA, coming off one of his best starts of the season. His FIP, however, is 4.90 and the Tigers have already publicly said they’ll be managing his workload this summer. That’s not great news in head-to-head redraft leagues. I would look to move Mize now, considering his win equity is low and his value is as high as it can be with the impending limitations. I’m willing to give him up for someone like Sean Manaea.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Make sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice all season and check out our Leading Off Podcast every single day for quick-hitting takeaways and advice.

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