Each week in this column, we will continue to look at players through the lens of advanced metrics and various statistical trends to discover which players are underachieving or overachieving in the hopes of identifying potential trade targets or those worth selling at peak value.
Some of the data can be used to acquire a player at a lower price point because he has lost value or sell players when they peak in value for a larger return on your investment.
Find stats showing that a player’s value is actually on the upswing and acquire that player at a fair price, knowing his value is almost sure to keep increasing anyway. Conversely, sell players who hold widely held perceived value but for whom underlying stats show may be on the verge of seeing the floor collapse and get out now.
Thus far, the data sample is starting to stabilize, and while more time is still needed to truly gather which players look like premium buys or sunk costs, we have enough to guide our decisions.
This week features a star-studded cast of buy-low candidates, all hitting under .200, and perhaps quite a few surprising sell high ones as well.
Remember, every ball hit and thrown still tells a story, and if you want to review previous Buy Low, Sell High suggestions from prior weeks, you can view them here.
View your league’s top available players with My Playbook 
Buy Low
Francisco Lindor managers are probably about as thrilled with Lindor’s slow start as Mets fans, especially after the megadeal Lindor signed with the team during the offseason. However, the underlying metrics show Lindor is already moving towards a return to form. Lindor has posted three multi-hit performances over his last dozen or so games, and he’s hitting over .280 with an OPS over .480 during that stretch. Lindor’s BB% and Max Exit Velo are both in the 80th percentile, and his .210 BABIP is more than 80 points below career norms.
Manny Machado has struggled thus far to the tune of a .225/.323/.394 slash line. The low BABIP (.242) hasn’t helped, but Statcast shows a hitter primed to go on a tear. Machado currently sits inside the Top-12 of Max Exit Velo, and his 7.0 Brls/PA% remains strong. Now is the time to acquire Machado before he starts heating up with the weather, provided his tight shoulder isn’t anything serious and karma isn’t thirsty for revenge after more stunts like this:
Manny Machado in the middle of another “dirty play or not” controversy pic.twitter.com/Nf7SNHwHdf
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) May 17, 2021
Until the production starts matching the underlying metrics, I’m going to keep putting Soto here as a target. Soto’s .352 wOBA is fairly neutral during this slow start, but his .419 xwOBA is elite, marking one of the highest differentials between what is and what should be happening when Soto hits the ball. Despite hitting just four home runs and a solid but unspectacular .282, the man is ripping the cover off the ball to no avail. He won’t come cheap, but if there was ever a time to buy…
Live look at Juan Soto's Statcast profile…@JuanSoto25_ // #NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/ADUqH094o5
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 16, 2021
Gone are the days where Pham pushes a 25/25 season, but he’s far better than the .193 average he’s currently sporting. Of course, the BABIP is low (.244, compared to a career norm over .320), but Pham’s plate discipline has allowed him to still be an asset in OBP leagues (.342), and it points to why he has an xwOBA of .363 despite a wOBA of .287. Routinely hitting in the heart of a loaded San Diego lineup, Pham should quickly start producing like an all-category asset soon instead of just…. well, see the clip below and you’ll understand what I mean.
Tommy Pham 2021 highlights 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/5IMIiLwRvj
— Tommy Pham’s Stripper Tuition Fund (@TooMuchMortons_) May 23, 2021
Sell High
Joey Wendle is fresh off a two-homer game. He has multiple four-hit games in the last week, and he’s now hitting over .300 for the season. However, Wendle’s wOBA (.383) doesn’t match his expected wOBA (.290), and that differential is the largest in baseball right now. His xBA (.239) further reveals how low the floor truly is here. If Wendle can be moved for a stronger utility asset, now is the time to sell. Especially when you consider one of the home runs he hit came off this guy:
Earlier today, Joey Wendle hit a HR off a position player while the Rays were up 9-1.
Kevin Cash gave Wendle a high-five when he got back to the dugout 👀
(via @JomboyMedia)pic.twitter.com/RlDwL5xyza
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 21, 2021
Arozarena continues to be a sell-high given the disparity between his xBA (.210) and his BA (.274) and the fact his xwOBA (.295) is ice cold. He is hitting the ball hard (88th percentile Max Exit Velo), but his Barrel% (34th percentile) somewhat mitigates that. Capitalize on the improved average and move him now.
Alex Bregman is hitting a delightful .314/.395/.462, and his managers have mostly been satisfied with that despite the lack of power and speed. Unfortunately, the underlying metrics don’t suggest either will be coming any time soon. Bregman’s 106 Max Exit Velo is the ninth-lowest in baseball among qualified hitters. He has never been a Statcast hero, but the abysmal 4.5 Brls/PA% doesn’t paint a better picture. His sprint speed has dropped to the 14th percentile, making some wonder if the offseason soft-tissue injuries have Bregman feeling tentative while running the bases. We’re still looking at a productive hitter here, but if another manager is expecting him to go on a summer rampage, the return could be bountiful.
Speaking of rampages, Riley has been a monster at the plate recently. He’s mashing to the tune of .320/.414/.549 with nine home runs while driving in runs in bunches. The power is legit, but it always has been. What’s fueling this breakout, in part, is the fact that Riley has a .421 BABIP, which is the second-highest mark in all of baseball. His wOBA (.411) far exceeds his xwOBA (.367), and his K% remains close to 30%. We’ve also seen Riley go ballistic for a stretch before going ice-cold (see: 2019 after his call-up). If you can sell Riley for an underperforming stud with better underlying metrics, make the deal.
Create MLB DFS lineups with our Lineup Optimizer Tool
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyEvolves.
