Here’s a number for you: one. A batter scores one run when hitting the ball over the fence. It is, therefore, good to hit a home run. Better than, say, taking a hanging batting-practice curveball thrown by an opposing catcher.
An MLB manager should be happy when one of their players hits a home run, but not so happy when someone from the other team throws a hard object at one of their players for doing their job too well.
Let’s take a look at some other revealing numbers that would probably prompt an out-of-touch, 76-year-old manager to yell at clouds with all his might. Hopefully you’re better at running your fantasy squad and will be open to new information and ideas before making misguided decisions throughout the season.
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DJ LeMahieu (1B/2B – NYY): .186 wOBA against Offspeed Pitches
LeMahieu isn’t necessarily having a bad season, just an underwhelming one given his past success in pinstripes. After two seasons of MVP-caliber production at the plate, he’s batting a pedestrian .273/.360/.366 with three home runs in 33 games.
Don’t panic about the lower batting average. The career .301 hitter can remedy that with a few multi-hit efforts, and he’s still far above MLB’s historically low .236 league-wide batting average, as of Wednesday night. However, it’s not a fluke as an 82.4% contact rate — while still far above league-average — is his lowest since 2011.
The power departure is of greater concern. Although a contact hitter in Colorado, he slugged .518 in 2019 and .590 in 2020. Recently, however, LeMahieu went nine games without an extra-base hit before tallying a double Tuesday. A dip in hard hits didn’t bother him last year, but they’ve caught up to the 32-year-old thus far.
What’s different? LeMahieu batted .350 with a .476 wOBA against offspeed pitches last season. He’s now hitting .133 with a .186 wOBA against the same offerings. His exit velocity against offspeed pitches has also cratered from 90.8 to 84.0 mph.
There’s good news: He’s underperforming a .256 xBA and .313 xwOBA on that category. The bad news? He considerably overperformed on a .271 xBA and .346 xwOBA last season, which helped conceal a 2.9% barrel rate and .453 xSLG. LeMahieu should improve, but probably not up to recent heights established with the Yankees.
Robbie Ray (SP – TOR): 47.5% Zone Rate
Ray has issued two walks in his last five starts since issuing six free passes on April 18. It’s an atypical stretch of stellar control from the wild southpaw, who has walked 10.8% of batters faced over 882.2 career innings. That number has mended to 6.6% during this stretch, which has also seen Ray register 42 strikeouts.
Remember when many fantasy drafters were convinced Ray’s altered mechanics would lead to major success in 2020, only to watch him crumble four innings into the season? We might be getting that return to relevancy a year later than anticipated. Ray is attacking the zone far more than in recent years, leading to more strikes — particularly on the first pitch (F-Strike%) of plate appearances.
There’s one inconvenient problem; he’s allowed 11 home runs alongside his 11 walks this season. Maybe that’s why he’s never consistently thrown strikes. As a result, Ray has a 3.79 ERA despite stranding 95.1% of baserunners. Those extremes lead to a 3.33 SIERA hinting at future improvement if his home-run rate stabilizes, but a 5.19 FIP foreshadowing potential doom once more baserunners make it home.
The safest bet might be projecting Ray’s ERA to stay in the high-three range with a lower WHIP than usual due to the declining walks. That is if he can continue to control the plate. Ray allowed just four walks during a five-game stretch in the summer of 2019, but then gave up 26 walks in his final nine starts.
Given the elite strikeout rate, fantasy managers need to see where this wild ride lands. Just don’t get too comfortable yet.
Mike Zunino (C – TB): .356 ISO
Ten of Zunino’s 19 hits are home runs. He’s thus slugging an excellent .567 despite batting a dreary .211, which is actually decent for his standards. That puts him second in ISO (slugging – BA) to Byron Buxton, who batted .370 with a ludicrous .772 slugging before landing on the IL.
This is what Zunino is capable of at his best. He’s not getting cheated, crushing those long balls — the most of any catcher — an average distance of 426 feet. Zunino already has 14 barrels and nearly the same average exit velocity (91 mph) as Joey Gallo.
Mike Zunino comes through with a rocket at the optimal time! 🚀
📺: Bally Sports Sun
💻: https://t.co/0DvcoLz1XE
📱: You can now download the new Bally Sports app.#RaysUp 1#Mets 2 pic.twitter.com/RC8RSUIHSE— Bally Sports Florida & Bally Sports Sun (@BallySportsFL) May 15, 2021
Unfortunately, this guy never tends to stick around long. Zunino hasn’t popped more than 20 homers in a season since offering a career-high 25 in 2017. It’s also a bad sign when a red-hot player is hitting .211, a batting average he’s only topped in one full season. From 2018 to 2020, he had the fourth-worst average (.182) and third-highest strikeout rate (36.6%) of all qualified batters with at least 500 plate appearances. He’s still striking out at a horrid 37.0% rate.
Hot streak aside, Zunino is only usable as a short-term power jolt in two-catcher formats. The 30-year-old has never delivered lasting fantasy appeal outside of 2017, but fantasy managers keep chasing the occasional stretch of towering dingers. Then again, a .200 hitter could be easier to stomach with batting averages diminished league-wide.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
