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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Tuesday (5/4)

May 4, 2021

Delon Wright might be running the showfor the Kings.

This could be a tough slate to navigate through. We have the Pistons playing in a back-to-back, and that’s always a nightmare for us writers. They do random things with their rotations, and we truly don’t know who will play for them until hours before tip. With that said, there’s a ton of great value on this slate and a lot to discuss. With that in mind, let’s break it down!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

I absolutely love the center position on this slate. I had seven guys at that position circled, and I tried to limit it down as much as possible. That means you need to squeeze two into your lineup and build from there. We will avoid any centers in the studs section, though, so you guys can you those expensive players and find value at the center position.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Delon Wright (SAC) $5,100
It looked strange when Sacramento acquired Wright, but now that De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barmes, and Tyler Haliburton are all sidelined, he might be running the show. With those guys off the floor, Wright has a 26 percent usage rate while averaging 1.24 DK points per minute. That’d be huge if he gets the 30-35 minutes we anticipate, especially against a G-League roster like OKC.

Devin Booker (PHO) $8,200
Booker has really turned his season around in the second half, scoring at least 32 Draftings points in 40 of his last 43 games. He’s also providing nearly 40 fantasy points per game in that span, which is pretty much his floor over the last two weeks. We love all of that with him facing a Cleveland team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Mason Plumlee (DET) $6,100
Plumlee has been frustrating to figure out with him resting all the time, but he’s a great value with him expected to start here after sitting on Monday. In fact, Plumdog has at least 44 fantasy points in two of his last three games and is posting a 30-point average for the year. Those are incredible numbers, and we love that he faces a Hornets team surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers. If Plumlee does sit for some reason, Isaiah Stewart would be a fantastic pick.

Kent Bazemore (GSW) $5,400
Bazemore was in this section on Monday, and we’re going right back to the well. He’s averaging nearly 30 DK points over his last 10 games, which is exactly when he took over starting duties. He should play even more here with Kelly Oubre sidelined as well, making him hard to avoid at this price against a 27th-ranked Pelicans defense.

Willy Hernangomez (NOR) $5,100
Steven Adams has been missing games recently, and it’s made Willy fantasy relevant. He’s been starting at center in his absence, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in all five starts he’s made this year. We love that against a small Golden State team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA.

Darius Bazley (OKC) $6,000
Oklahoma City is in tank mode, but it has turned Bazley into their best player. Over his last 11 games played, Baze is averaging 30.3 DK points per game in 33 minutes a night. More importantly, he’s leading the team in shot attempts and usage in that span, doing serious damage with Al Horford and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup.

Richaun Holmes (SAC) $6,300
Holmes has remained way too cheap on DraftKings all year. He’s been playing at a $7,500 player for most of the season and should be asked to do even more with so many Kings injured. If you take out the two injury-shortened games for Holmes, he’s averaging over 34 DraftKings points per game. That’s fantastic news against a Thunder team that surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,800
Here’s the obligatory Lopez write-up. This guy is averaging 28 DK points per game over the last two months and has a 31-point average across his last four fixtures. That makes this pricing hard to believe, but it’s clear DK doesn’t trust this guy. It’s even more bizarre when you see that he faces a 24th-ranked Nets defense that struggles with opposing centers.

Khem Birch (TOR) $5,300
Birch has quietly been an excellent center for Toronto since his trade, and it has to make one wonder why Orlando didn’t keep him. He’s started in each of the last 10 games and is posting a 30-point average in that span. There’s also a possibility that Toronto will rest players here, which would only add to Birch’s intrigue.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,400: We had Curry in this section on Monday in the same matchup, so we have to go right back to the well. He’s averaging over 50 DK points per game since returning from an injury a month ago and should exploit this putrid Pelicans defense. That was certainly the case on Monday when he had 41 points four rebounds and eight assists.
  • Kevin Durant (BKN) $9,300: With James Harden missing games, KD is the man in Brooklyn right now. He’s scored at least 45 fantasy points in each of his last four games, dropping 60-plus in his last two. That’s the MVP we used to know and love, and he should be extra hungry against the Bucks. Milwaukee is one of their biggest rivals in the east and currently plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $8,800: The Claw just returned from an injury on Sunday, and a dud in that return has made his price a bit too low. He was in a ridiculous stretch before that, scoring at least 40 DK points in each of his previous 11 games. You better believe he’ll be motivated against his former team too.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,800: FVV has been in and out of the lineup with Toronto out of contention, and it makes him impossible to trust. Even in the games he’s played, VanVleet has scored 32 or fewer fantasy points in four of his last six outings. Even if he does suit up, that really concerns us against a Top-5 Clippers defense.
  • Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,700: Ayton has been in this section a lot recently, and it’s easy to see why. He hasn’t cracked 30 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. That’s even more concerning with the blowout potential here and DA having to match up with a defensive stud like Jarrett Allen.
  • Kevin Love (CLE) $6,400: Love doesn’t have the ceiling he used to. He hasn’t scored more than 41 DK points in 17 games since his return and has an ugly 24-point average over his last five fixtures. That’s really terrifying against a Top-5 Phoenix defense, especially with the blowout potential.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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