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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Friday (5/7)

May 7, 2021

Mo Bamba has really found a nice role since Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon were traded

The Friday slates are always some of the best of the week. That’s just the case here, with 10 games making up this ledger. That means we have a huge player pool to look forward to, but there’s a lot to dissect with so many teams having different motivations right now. Some clubs are fighting for their lives while others are trying to tank as much as possible. Judging motivation is one of the toughest things in fantasy, but it could lead to some sneaky plays if you dig a little deeper.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

It’s absolutely insane how many of the guards are injured on this slate. You open up the DraftKings tag and get blinded by all the big red Qs and O’s across the player pool. That makes things tough, but it also opens up a ton of value. That also means there will be tons of cheap guards opening up, and even more value will arise when we get closer to tip.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Delon Wright (SAC) $6,800
We loved Wright when he was running things in Detroit, but his role in Sacramento might be even bigger. They’re currently missing De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Harrison Barnes, leaving Wright to feast. In the last two games without those guys, Delon has at least 55 DraftKings points in both, playing 38 minutes a night.

Mo Bamba (ORL) $6,100
Bamba has really found a nice role since Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon were traded, and he’d be one of the best plays out there if Wendell Carter sits here as well. Bamba has at least 46 fantasy points in back-to-back games and is averaging 47 DK points per game in his two starts this year. The matchup isn’t too shabby either, with the Hornets surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Robert Williams (BOS) $5,900
Rob-Will has been in this section a lot recently, and we love his per-minute production. The big man is averaging 34 DK points per game across 23 minutes a night since the Celtics traded Daniel Theis. That’s all you can ask for from a guy hovering around $6,000, especially with the Bulls owning a 27th OPRK against opposing centers.

Daniel Theis (CHI) $5,300
With Nikola Vucevic possibly sitting in the second half of a B2B here, Theis is a fantastic value. He dropped 30 DraftKings points across 40 minutes in the first game without him, and if he keeps playing 40 minutes, he’s impossible to avoid. We also don’t mind that this is a revenge game for Theis, likely motivating him even more.

Kemba Walker (BOS) $7,600
It looks like Jaylen Brown might miss another game here, and that’d be huge news for Kemba. The former Bobcat has a 31 percent usage rate with JB off the floor, averaging more than 1.2 DK points per minute. He showed that on Wednesday, dropping 46 DK points in just 28 minutes in a blowout win over Orlando. We certainly don’t mind that he faces an 18th-ranked Chicago defense, either.

Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,800
Murray has been a beast ever since Derrick White went down. Before a dud against the Jazz on Wednesday, DM was averaging 44.3 DK points per game across his previous five fixtures. We absolutely adore that in a matchup like this, with the Kings surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards while owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Kenyon Martin Jr. (HOU) $4,700
The Rockets are completely done, but Martin has proven himself as a valuable weapon. He got the start on Wednesday and dropped 50 fantasy points across 44 minutes of play. He’s been productive whenever given the opportunity, too, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in the seven outings he’s played at least 31 minutes. We expect that to happen again here with so many Houston players sidelined, especially at this price.

Goran Dragic (MIA) $5,600
Dragic is finally starting to play well, and it’s no surprise that it directly correlates with Tyler Herro‘s absence. That has allowed The Dragon to handle the ball a lot more, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. He’s also averaging over 30 DK points per game in those eight outings, and we certainly don’t expect a terrible T’Wolves defense to slow him down. We’ll discuss that more later.

Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $5,700
THJ is one of the most inconsistent players in the NBA, but he’s got some of the craziest upsides from a player in this price range. He’s scored at least 49 fantasy points in two of his last three games and should continue to fire up shots at will with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Cleveland is not a concerning matchup either, ranked 21st in defensive efficiency.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,700: Embiid is not the most expensive player on this slate, and maybe he should be. The big man has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in all but three games this season and posts a fantastic 52-point average for the year. We love that against a Pelicans team that sits 24th in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,500: Butler is having one of the best seasons of his career, doing more ball-handling than ever before. In fact, he’s averaging 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. That alone makes him a great pivot in this price range, but the matchup against Minnesota is majestic as well. The Timberwolves rank fourth in pace and 28th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency, which is scary since this is a revenge game for Butler.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Christian Wood (HOU) $9,000: The Rockets are in rebuild mode, and now might be the time they limit Wood. They’ve already done that by sitting him twice in the last 10 days, and it looks like that could happen again here. That really concerns us with the blowout potential in this game, especially with Wood averaging fewer than 30 fantasy points in his last two games played.
  • Coby White (CHI) $6,900: White was actually in our value section a ton throughout the last two weeks, but now that Zach LaVine is back, we want to stay away. LaVine swallows us about 30 percent of the team’s usage and 20 shots, making White a $5,000 player earlier in the year. Just wait for this price to drop before going back to the well.
  • Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,700: The big man has really been struggling recently, scoring 30 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last six games. He’s also got 27 or less in six of his last nine outings, making him impossible to trust against a Top-5 Knicks defense.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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