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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (5/10)

May 10, 2021

Kenyon Martin Jr. is a screaming value at his price.

This is the final Monday of the regular season! We’re treated with six games for this small slate because there are huge days at the end of the week. I prefer to have the smaller player pool, though, because there’s so much chaos in terms of rotations and injury reports right now. We feel like we have a good read on how this one will play out, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

I think this is the most well-rounded list of players in terms of positions. We have suggestions at every spot, and it doesn’t feel like any position is more stacked than the other. The only major weakness is at small forward, though, with only two players north of $7K. That means picking the right guys at that spot is critical, but we have a few here to pick between.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Kenyon Martin Jr. (HOU) $6,200
The Rockets have been the worst team in the NBA this season, and it’s only getting worse. They’re currently missing Kevin Porter, John Wall, Christian Wood, and Eric Gordon, leaving KJ as one of the focal points of the offense. In the last three games without those guys, Martin has scored at least 43 DraftKings points in all of them, playing nearly 40 minutes a night in that span. That’s ridiculous from a $6,200 player, and we’ll discuss this fantastic Portland matchup later on.

Ja Morant (MEM) $8,300:
Morant has been feeling it for a month now, and he’s doing everything possible to get his team into the postseason. Over his last 12 games played, Ja is averaging 41 DK points per game across 35 minutes a night. That’s excellent from a guy barely cracking $8K, and he should continue it against a 24th-ranked Pelicans defense that’s currently missing three starters.

Jusuf Nurkic (POR) $7,300:
Nurk has finally been playing a full workload, and it’s made him a fantasy monster yet again. Over his last 11 games played, Nurkic is averaging 37 DK points per game in 25 minutes a night. That minute total looks low, but he’s played 29 minutes or more in five of those and appears to have that restriction lifted. If he plays at that rate and gets above 30, he’s one of the best values out there. Not to mention, Houston surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Anthony Lamb (HOU) $4,100:
It’s weird that Lamb hasn’t gotten a price bump. We already mentioned all of the players out in Houston, and it’s earned him a career role. The versatile guard has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games, scoring at least 26 DK points in two of those. That’s hard to overlook from a $4,100 player, and we don’t anticipate a 29th-ranked Trail Blazers defense to slow him down.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,900:
Bro-Lo is in this article almost every day, and I truly don’t understand why he remains below $5K. Since the beginning of March, he’s averaging 27 DraftKings points per game and has a 30-point average over his last seven outings. It simply doesn’t make sense why he’s only $4,900 with all of that in his favor, especially with San Antonio owning a 19th OPRK against opposing centers.

T.J. McConnell (IND) $5,700:
Indiana has been trying to cope without Malcolm Brogdon, but it’s put McConnell in a really nice spot. While he’s still coming off the bench, T.J. is averaging 32 fantasy points per game since Brogdon went down. We’ve seen glimpses of that all year, and we can’t overlook the fact that his usage and minutes have risen without him too. Facing a 23rd-ranked Cavs only adds to his intrigue.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,300:
Ingles has been running things in Utah with Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell sidelined, and it’s made him awesome for fantasy. He’s scored at least 28 DraftKings points in five straight games and posts a 32-point average as a starter this year. That makes it hard to believe that Joe has dropped to $6,300, especially with Golden State playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA.

James Johnson (NOR) $4,600:
The Pelicans are trying to figure things out with so many players missing, and it’s moved JJ into the starting lineup. They’re currently missing Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Steven Adams, leaving Johnson with a 30-minute role. That’s exactly the amount he played on Sunday, with JJ averaging 29 fantasy points per game in his eight starts this year.

DaQuan Jeffries (HOU) $4,400:
It’s hard to fade the Rockets right now, and Jeffries is one of the guys who’s taken on the biggest bump. The 23-year-old has started the last three games for Houston, averaging 27 DK points per game across 37 minutes a night. Those are tremendous totals from a $4,400 player, and we love that Portland owns the second-worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA too.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: It sounds like Bradley Beal will sit here, and it’s scary to think how much Russ will do in his absence. In the last 32 games with him, Westbrook is averaging 23.3 points, 13.5 rebounds, 13 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. That’s horrifying for the Hawks, with Atlanta surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $10,600: With Brogdon and Myles Turner injured, Sabonis has been doing everything. He was already the focal point of the offense before, but this expanded role has led to Dom scoring at least 68 DK points in three of his last five games, en route to a 62-point average in that span.
  • Trae Young (ATL) $9,300: We love picking players against Washington, so let’s ride Trae. The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. That’s bad news with Young dropping 54 fantasy points in their one meeting earlier this year.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Christian Wood (HOU) $8,700: We love Wood as a player, but he really scares me right now. He’s been missing games because of some different injuries, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he sits out the rest of the year for this tanking team. That makes it hard to understand why he’s $8,700, particularly with a 28-point average over his last two games.
  • Andrew Wiggins (GSW) $6,900: It’s scary to use guys like Wiggins against the Jazz. Utah has a Top-5 defense, and Wig does very little outside of scoring. That’s worrisome with Utah surrendering the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing small forwards, and the blowout potential is concerning too.
  • Oshae Brissett (IND) $5,800: With Sabonis returning to the lineup, Brissett is no longer trustworthy for fantasy purposes. He’s scored 18 or fewer fantasy points in three of his last four games, playing fewer than 26 minutes in each of those. That means we need his price to drop $1,000 if we want to go back to the Brissett well.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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