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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (5/12)

May 12, 2021

It’s hard to believe Trae Young is barely cracking $9K.

It’s bizarre that we have a weak Wednesday slate, but that’s just the case here. There are only six games on this ledger, and it’s hard to understand why when you look at how many games there are the rest of the week. This is the smallest slate for the final few days, but it’s an entertaining player pool. We have a lot to talk about, though, so let’s go ahead and break it down.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

I really looked deep to find 10 guys I liked, but I simply couldn’t on a short six-game slate. That leaves us with eight recommendations in total, but I feel strongly about all of them. The lack of centers in this section is interesting, though, with only one true center among the value picks. We usually have a ton in this portion of the article, and it has me excited to fill out a lineup. Let’s go ahead and start it off with one of the best point guard options on the board.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-8 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Trae Young (ATL) $9,100
Young was one of our top plays on Monday in the same matchup, and we’re going right back to the well. The reason we loved him was the fact that he faced Washington, with the Wizards playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. That was on full display on Monday, with Trae scoring 55 DraftKings points. He scored 54 in their first meeting, too, making it hard to believe he’s barely cracking $9K.

Jordan Clarkson (UTH) $7,500
Clarkson just had the game of his career on Monday, and it’s becoming clear that Utah wants this guy to fire up shots as long as Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell remain out. With those guys off the floor, JC leads the team with a 31.2 percent usage rate, taking a shot nearly every minute he’s out there. Over his last 14 games played, Clarkson is taking 19 shots a game, posting a 34-point average in that span. We love the matchup, too, and we’ll discuss that a little later.

Kenyon Martin Jr. (HOU) $6,600
It’s sad how bad the Rockets are, but it’s led to Martin having a breakout season. They’re currently missing Kevin Porter, John Wall, Eric Gordon, and Christian Wood, leaving KJ with the starting power forward role. In the last four games without those guys, Martin has played at least 39 minutes in each of them, generating a ridiculous 45-point average in that span.

Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $6,900
We foreshadowed the Portland matchup earlier, so let’s talk about that. The Trail Blazers currently rank 22nd in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. That’s scary against someone as hot as Bogey, with Bojan averaging 37 fantasy points per game across his last eight outings. That directly correlates with Mitchell and Conley’s absences, taking 17.4 shots per game in that span.

Dean Wade (CLE) $4,000
This is certainly no Dwyane Wade, but Dean isn’t too bad. He showed that in a rare start on Monday, compiling 45.5 DraftKings points in the best game of his career. That’s no surprise when you see that Cleveland is missing Kevin Love, Larry Nance, Darius Garland, and Cedi Osman. Wade is guaranteed 30-plus minutes and is nearly impossible to fade if all of those guys continue to sit.

Dwight Powell (DAL) $4,400
The Mavericks have been playing without Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber, pushing Powell into starting duties. He’s actually played at least 27 minutes in three of his last five games, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in four of those. That’s hard to find from such a cheap player, especially against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.

Rui Hachimura (WAS) $5,300
Rui has been amazing whenever Bradley Beal or Russell Westbrook has been out, and he should continue that with Beal missing this game. Hachi has scored at least 39 DK points in three of the last five games that Beal has missed, and he’s actually the second-best player on this team without him. That’s hard to overlook with him facing a 25th-ranked Atlanta defense.

James Johnson (NOR) $5,000
The Pelicans are pretty much done, and it doesn’t look like Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, or Steven Adams will play another game this year. That should keep JJ in the starting lineup, which is brilliant since he’s averaging 29 DK points per game in his nine starts this season. We already mentioned how shorthanded Dallas’s frontcourt is, too, and that only adds to JJ’s intrigue.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $12,400: We said that Westbrook would remain in this section for the rest of the year, and it’s easy to see why. He’s scored at least 63 DraftKings points in six straight games, averaging an absurd 72 fantasy points per game in that span. Good luck fading that, and it could get even better with Beal sidelined as well.
  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,800: A couple of weak performances has lowered Doncic’s price a bit too much, but he’s still been a per-minute beast in those outings. Before that mini slide, Luka had at least 46 fantasy points in 13 straight games, posting a 53-point average in that span. We love that New Orleans ranks 21st in total defense while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards as well, with Doncic dropping 80.5 DK points on them earlier this year.
  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,400: Boston may be without Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown here, which means Tatum will be the Celtics offense. With those two off the floor, JT leads the team with a 37 percent usage rate while averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That’s awful news for a Cleveland club that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency ratings.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $7,600: The Celtics have had 10 back-to-back sets since Kemba returned to action, and how many of those do you think he sat? Yes, he sat out one end of them on all 10 occasions, and with him playing on Tuesday, it seems unlikely that he’ll play here. We actually do like him if he does suit up but betting against something that’s happened 10 out of 10 times is silly.
  • Andre Drummond (LAL) $6,000: Drummond in LA looked like a dream pairing, but it’s been closer to a nightmare. He’s played 22 or fewer minutes in four straight games and might see even less playing time with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both healthy. He’s also generating a 16-point average in that span, too, one of the worst stretches of his career.
  • Enes Kanter (POR) $4,300: Kanter was a fantasy stud when he filled in for Jusuf Nurkic earlier this season but with Nurk back and playing a full workload, Kanter is impossible to trust. He’s scored 24 or fewer fantasy points in 12 of his last 14 games, playing fewer than 18 minutes a night in that span. Not to mention, Utah is a top-5 defense.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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