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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (5/5)

May 5, 2021

Collin Sexton has quietly had a breakout season for the Cavs.

The NBA season is coming to an end, with just 11 days remaining. That means every DFS slate from here on out will be crazy, with numerous teams playing for nothing. That can cause chaos in terms of what rotations will look like, but we believe we have a good read on what’s going on. There’s a lot to discuss, so let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Like most days with this article, the wing positions are extremely weak. That tends to be the case with guards and centers dominating the sport, making the forward positions really tough to dissect. We actually have numerous power forwards in the fade section, so that might be a good way of using a process of elimination to get the right guys into your build. Knowing who not to pick is just as important as picking the right guys, so let’s get started with the guards and centers to squeeze into your lineups.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Collin Sexton (CLE) $8,100
Sexton has quietly had a breakout season for the Cavs, and he should be in for a huge night with Darius Garland likely sitting. Over his last 19 games played, Sexton is averaging 39 DK points per game, scoring at least 29 fantasy points in each of them. We love that with his expanded role here, and it could lead to a 50-point gem against a 29th-ranked Portland defense.

Delon Wright (SAC) $5,600
Wright was our top value play of the day on Tuesday, and it would be silly not to go right back to the well when the water tastes so good. The Kings are missing De’Aaron Fox, Tyler Haliburton, and Harrison Barnes, leaving Wright with a huge role. He’s averaging over 1.2 DK points per minute with those guys out and will likely play at least 30-35 minutes for this shorthanded Sacramento team. Indiana has been one of the worst defenses in the NBA since Myles Turner went down, too, and that’s awesome with Wright dropping nearly 60 fantasy points as our highlight play on Tuesday.

T.J. McConnell (IND) $5,700
Malcolm Brogdon has been missing games for Indiana, and it’s made McConnell their go-to point guard. While he hasn’t been starting, he’s been finishing, collecting 41 DraftKings points across 32 minutes on Monday. We’ve seen that sort of production throughout the year from McConnell, and he should flirt with another triple-double as long as Brogdon remains out. Sacramento is the best matchup in fantasy basketball, too, with the Kings owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,800
DraftKings hates this guy! Lopez is in this section every game out, and it makes no sense why he remains below $5K. He’s averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game over the last two months and has an even higher average over the last week. That looks even better here, with Washington ranked 25th in points allowed while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Richaun Holmes (SAC) $6,500
We discussed all of the injuries in Sacramento, and it should allow Holmes to be one of the focal points of the offense. That’s big news for a guy that’s already averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game, excising Hassan Whiteside from the rotation. The best part of this play is the matchup, with Turner missing for Indiana while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $4,600
The Nuggets have lost Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and Monte Morris over the last two weeks, and it’s forced Facu into the starting point guard job. Over his last six games played, Campazzo is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game in 33 minutes a night. That’s hard to avoid from someone this cheap.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,700
Ingles has been the de facto point guard in Utah, with Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell sidelined. He’s been a beast whenever he’s started anyway, averaging 32 DK points per game in his 22 starts this year. His minutes, shot attempts, assists, and touches all go up with them out, and he should continue to go off as long as they remain sidelined.

Ricky Rubio (MIN) $4,500
Rubio was in a horrific slump this time last week, but his last two games show how good he can be. He has over 86 combined DraftKings points in those two games and has shown flashes of that just a month ago. If he matches that 43-point average here, Rubio would be one of the best values out there.

Robert Williams (BOS) $5,400
Williams might be the best per-minute player in the NBA, averaging nearly 1.4 DK points per minute. That’s stellar considering his minutes have been rising recently, averaging 32 fantasy points per game across 23 minutes a night over his last 25 games played. That’s hard to overlook from a guy in this price range, especially against a G-League roster like Orlando.

Mikal Bridges (PHO) $5,400
Bridges is one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and it’s led to some huge fantasy performances recently. He’s scored at least 25 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, generating a 32-point average across 38 minutes a night in that span. That should continue against an Atlanta team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: Westbrook has been a regular in this section for a month now, and it’s unbelievable what this dude is doing. He’s got a triple-double in 21 of his last 25 games, averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points per game in that span. He’s actually averaging 23.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 12.7 assists per game in that stretch, making him the best option in fantasy.
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $10,600: Sabonis has been on a tear since his return from injury. In the two games since then, Dom has collected 58 points, 38 rebounds, 23 assists, and four steals. That’s a ridiculous two-game stretch, with Sabonis dropping at least 73 fantasy points in both of them. We already discussed this tasty matchup, which only adds to his intrigue facing the worst defense in the NBA.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $9,400: A small slump from Dame lowered his price a bit too much, and it’s clear he’s over it with his last few games. He’s scored at least 53 fantasy points in three straight games, which is the guy we saw before his injury. Facing Cleveland isn’t too bad either, with the Cavaliers ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Notable Players to Fade

  • John Collins (ATL) $6,800: Now that Atlanta is starting to get healthier, Collins’ numbers are starting to drop again. Over his last 10 games played, JC is averaging just 26 fantasy points per game. That’s not enough at this price, and it really worries us against a Top-5 Phoenix defense.
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $5,500: It’s pretty crazy that Whiteside isn’t the minimum at this point. Ever since Holmes returned from injury, he’s been in the doghouse. In fact, he’s been excised from the rotation, receiving five straight DNPs since Holmes’ return.
  • Aaron Gordon (DEN) $4,900: Gordon was a good acquisition for the Nuggets in terms of depth and defense, but it certainly wasn’t a good move from a fantasy perspective. He’s lost almost all of his playmaking ability because of Nikola Jokic, posting some of the worst numbers of his career. He actually hasn’t cracked 31 fantasy points in 16 straight games and is averaging just 21 DraftKings points per game in that span.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.