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FanDuel NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Sunday (5/2)

May 2, 2021

Kevin Porter is taking on a big role for the rebuilding Rockets.

That Saturday slate was absolutely insane! There was more injury news than even I can handle, and that’s saying something. Unfortunately, every day is going to be like that from here on out. Luckily, we’re here to help break down all this information, and hopefully, this article provides some solid value plays. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

The position scarcity is fascinating on this slate. When making my list of players, I actually had six centers but decided to limit it and spread the wealth to other positions. Recommending so many centers on FanDuel is silly since you only get to use one, but it’s a good indicator of how stacked that spot is today. I’m going to stay away from it in the studs section, too, so you can use a value play there and save some salary.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Name (TEAM) POSITION OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
PG at BOS $8,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
SF vs. NYK $7,700 ⭐⭐ Low
C at HOU $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
PF vs. MIA $6,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
SG at DAL $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
C vs. POR $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
C vs. PHO $5,300 ⭐⭐ High
C at CHA $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
PF at BOS $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

Damian Lillard (POR): $8,500
This price tag is crazy. We all know Lillard is struggling right now, but he should never sit around $8,000. He’s usually five figures when he’s rolling, and it’ll only take 40 FanDuel points for him to reach value. He’s actually scored at least 33 FD points in 52 of his 58 games this season en route to a 46-point average, showing just how easy it is for Lillard to reach that total.

Kevin Porter (HOU): $7,700
Porter was my top recommendation on Thursday in what’s probably my call of the year, and I’m going to keep going back to the well. He was the go-to guy in Houston with John Wall out of the lineup, scoring 71 FD points in that gem. He only needs half of that to be a good value Sunday, and it looks like he has the keys to the car for the remainder of the season.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $5,100:
Everyone talks about Julius Randle and RJ Barrett in New York, but Noel has quietly been one of their most valuable players. Over his last nine games played, Noel is averaging 32 FD points per game in 29 minutes a night. That’s a stupendous total from someone in this price range, and it should be easy to continue that production with Houston surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

P.J. Washington (CHA): $6,800
The Hornets have struggled with their center position all year, but Washington has been brilliant in that role over the last few weeks. In fact, he has scored at least 31 FD points in eight of his last 10 games, averaging nearly 40 fantasy points in those eight outings. Those are astounding averages from such a talented player, and he’s played at least 38 minutes in two of his last three games.

Tyrese Haliburton (SAC): $7,600
With De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes sidelined, this is Haliburton’s offense now. The rookie has at least 40 FanDuel points in three of four games since taking over the starting point guard duties. We can’t overlook that sort of production at this price, especially with Dallas surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

Robert Williams (BOS): $5,400
Williams has been one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA, averaging over 1.3 FD points per minute. That’s big news with his role slowly expanding. His minutes bumped up to 23 when getting the start Friday. That’s really all he needs to succeed, as he’s averaging 35 FanDuel points per game in the 23 outings when he’s played at least 20 minutes. We certainly don’t expect the Trail Blazers to stop him; we’ll discuss their terrible defense later.

Moses Brown (OKC): $5,300
The Thunder are obviously disastrous, but Brown has some serious potential. The youngster is flirting with double-double averages since taking over starting center responsibilities a month ago, averaging 27 FD points per game across his last 21 outings. You can’t ask for any more from such a cheap player, and he could be looking at more minutes and usage here with OKC playing the second half of a back-to-back set.

Bam Adebayo (MIA): $8,300
Big Bam is one of the most reliable players in the game. He’s scored at least 31 FD points in 38 of his last 41 games, with one of those being a game that he left due to injury. He’s also averaging nearly 45 FanDuel points per game in that span, making him one of the best bets for 5X value on this slate. Charlotte is far from scary, too, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Robert Covington (POR): $4,900
RoCo has struggled the last two weeks, but it’s lowered his price way too far. We’re talking about a defensive stopper who averaged 32 FD points per game across 34 minutes a night in his previous 30 games before this mini eight-game slide. Trust the larger sample size and buy at his lowest.

Studs Worth Their Salary

Luka Doncic (DAL): $10,600
Doncic is one of the best players in fantasy, and it’s tough to fade him in a spot like this. His biggest asset here is the matchup, with the Kings owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA. That’s truly horrifying against a player averaging 55 FanDuel points over his last nine outings. If he does sit in the second of a back-to-back, Jalen Brunson would be an excellent value.

Jayson Tatum (BOS): $10,100
Tatum has been terrific for a few weeks now, and it culminated with a career-best performance on Friday. After dropping 60 points on the San Antonio Spurs, he’s averaging 51 FD points across his last 11 outings. That absurd total makes him a bit too cheap, and we certainly don’t anticipate a 29th-ranked Portland defense slowing him down.

Julius Randle (NYK): $9,700
Randle got some flack for making the All-Star team, but he’s quieted those doubters with an incredible second half. The big man has scored at least 41 FanDuel points in 16 of his last 18 games, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s bad news for a Houston team that ranks fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.

Notable Players to Fade

Fred VanVleet (TOR): $7,200
The Raptors are days away from having their season come to an end, and some of these guys probably can’t wait. FVV should be one of them, as he’s scoring 30 or fewer fantasy points in four of his last six games. This also marks the second half of a back-to-back set, so he may be rested.

Tobias Harris (PHI): $7,000
Harris has been dealing with a knee injury over the last few weeks that’s certainly affecting his play. He’s only surpassed 37 fantasy points once in his last 10 games, and that’s about what you’d need from someone in this price range. Harris is also averaging just 32 FD points per game in that stretch, making him super risky against a top-10 Spurs defense.

Montrezl Harrell (LAL): $4,800
Harrell struggled to get minutes before LeBron James and Anthony Davis returned. Now that the Lakers are at full health, he is impossible to use. Over his last nine games played, Trez is averaging 19 FD in just 18 minutes.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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