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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: Corey Kluber, Austin Riley, Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: Corey Kluber, Austin Riley, Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article for Week 8 (5/17-5/23). I will cover some of the hottest and coldest players in baseball over the last week. This weekly column aims to provide insight into the featured players’ success and/or struggles. We’ll discover if their recent performances have any staying power or if it was just a flash in the pan.

We’re nearly a third of the way through the season, if you can believe that. We’ve just about reached the point where you need to decide whether to hold, sell high, buy low, or simply cut bait on some of these names. This upcoming week, as always, is big for some of the fallers mentioned below. It should also shed light on the sustainability of some of the risers. With that said, let’s get into it.

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Risers

Spencer Turnbull (SP – DET)
Another week, another two no-hitters thrown in major league baseball. For those of you who are counting at home, that’s six no-hitters already this season, and it’s not even June. The MLB record for no-hitters in a season is seven, which has happened four times before. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the 2021 season is on pace to demolish that record. Turnbull threw his first career no-no against the Mariners on May 18. It was the second time this season that the M’s have been no-hit. Turnbull fired off a season-high 117 pitches while punching out nine and walking two.

His roster shares predictably skyrocketed after the performance, going from 5% to 35% overnight. Turnbull had actually been fairly good before May 18, and now his season numbers look fantastic. The 28-year-old owns a 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 31:8 K/BB ratio over 34 1/3 innings (six starts). He got off to a delayed start this season after batting COVID-19, hence the smaller sample size. His stellar numbers are supported by a 3.02 xERA, 2.77 FIP, and career-best 5.7% Walk rate. He’s logged three quality starts out of six and will have a chance to follow up his no-hitter against Cleveland, another team that’s been no-hit twice this year, on Monday. If he performs well in that spot, then his roster shares will continue to climb.

Corey Kluber (SP – NYY)
Not to be outdone by Turnbull, Kluber produced the second no-hitter of the week on May 19 against the Rangers. This was the second time this season that Texas has been no-hit. This was the first no-hitter of Kluber’s storied career and the first Yankee no-no since 1999. He walked just one batter and struck out nine to finish off the Rangers on Wednesday. It’s been quite the turnaround for Kluber, who made the “Fallers” list while posting a 6.10 ERA after his first three starts earlier this year. Since then, he’s posted a 4-1 record with a 2.03 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across 40 innings (six starts).

The velocity on his cutter, his most used pitch, is down to an average of 87.8 mph, but opponents have an expected batting average of .215 against that offering. Batters are also posting an xBA of .207 and .151 against his curveball and changeup, respectively. He’s been mixing his pitches well and has done a fine job limiting run damage over the last month. He’s recorded five quality starts over his last six appearances and has looked rejuvenated on the mound. If he can stay healthy, he should continue to put stellar numbers for the Yanks.

Rich Hill (SP- TB)
It’s been a tale of two months for the 41-year-old Rich Hill. He posted a 7.25 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP over 22 1/3 innings (five starts) in April. He’s flipped the switch in May, though, by posting an excellent 0.42 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 21 2/3 innings (four starts). Overall, the crafty veteran has a 3-1 record, 1.89 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, and a 45:17 K/BB ratio across 44 innings (nine starts). He only had one turn last week, a six-inning, four-strikeout performance against the Orioles, but he’s now rattled off three straight quality starts.

He’s posted a 32.7% CSW (called strikes + whiffs), which is the second-highest mark of his career while showing an increase in velocity in his fastball, cutter, and curveball. Hill’s mini-resurgence has been a fun story to follow so far, but he’s 41-years-old and has a lengthy injury history. We never want to see any player get hurt, but it’s likely only a matter of time before Hill hits the IL. In the meantime, he’s rostered in just 47% of Yahoo! leagues and is a worthwhile stream in the right matchups. He draws the Royals at home on Tuesday, which is a good place to start. Strike while the iron is hot.

Randy Arozarena (OF – TB)
Arozarena finished the week with a hefty .345/.424/.724 batting line to go along with three home runs, eight RBI, and a stolen base over 29 at-bats. He really made his hay over an epic two-game performance vs. the Orioles (5/19-5/20), in which he parked all three of his homers and drove in those eight runs.

Granted, it was the Orioles, whose starting pitchers give up home runs like nobody’s business, but the hot performance may have sparked something in Arozarena, who now has seven long balls on the year to go along 24 RBI and a .273/.365/.442 batting line across 197 at-bats. It would be impossible for Arozarena to immediately live up to the legend he built during the 2020 postseason. He smashed 10 home runs in 20 playoff games last year, so seven bombs in 44 games this season is a letdown by comparison. But he’s not having a bad year by any stretch and should start to drive the ball more now that he’s found his power stroke. He just needed a trip to Baltimore to rekindle that home run feeling.

Austin Riley (3B – ATL)
Over his first 40 games, Riley put up solid numbers with a .291/.405/.394 slash line to go along with three home runs and 10 RBI across 127 at-bats. Over the last seven games, he’s smashed six home runs, 11 RBI, and scored nine runs while putting up a ridiculous .462/.464/1.308 batting line in 26 at-bats. He had two multi-home run performances against the Pirates, powering Atlanta to a 3-1 series victory over the weekend. Riley appears to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout, combining average and power. He’s posting a career-best 45.1% Hard Hit rate and 81.1% zone contact rate. The 24-year-old is still striking out at a decent clip with a 27.7% strikeout rate–an uptick from his 23.8% mark from last season– but his 11.3% BB rate is the highest mark of his young career.

Overall, he’s got a .320/.414/.549 batting line with nine home runs, 21 RBI, and a 51:20 K/BB ratio over 153 at-bats. We shouldn’t expect a .300 batting average moving forward, especially with his .421 BABIP, but his expected stats are more than realistic with a .262 xBA, .360 xwOBA, and .468 xSLG. He’s still just rostered in 75% of Yahoo! leagues, but that number will skyrocket after last week’s herculean effort.

Jesse Winker (OF – CIN)
Winker was already having an incredible season before stamping an exclamation point on it this week. The 27-year-old had quite the homestand, blasting six home runs driving in seven RBI to go along with eight runs scored and a .407/.467/1.074 batting line over 27 at-bats. He had a three-home run performance in a 9-4 win over the Brewers on Friday and has gone deep in three straight games. On the season, he’s slashing a ridiculous .355/.412/.684 with 10 doubles, 13 home runs, 28 RBI, and 34 runs scored. He’s posting career highs in xBA (.311), xSLG (.576), wOBA (.459), xwOBA (.401), xwOBAcon (.476), Hard Hit rate (53.8%), Average Exit Velocity (92.4 mph), and Barrel rate (14.5%).

He’s been more aggressive at the plate as well, with a career-high in Chase rate (24.5%), and his 20% K rate and 8.5% BB rate are off his career averages. So far, that aggression has paid off as he’s performed like a top-5 outfielder. Winker has always been a solid hitter, and now that he’s combined that with 25-plus home run potential, his ceiling is sky-high. He’s just three home runs away from tying his previous career-high of 16, which could happen this week if he keeps this hot streak going.

Fallers

Luis Castillo (SP – CIN)
This is starting to sound like a broken record with Castillo as this is the second consecutive week he’s made the “Fallers” list. He logged two starts last week, and while he took a step forward with an 11 strikeout performance against the Giants on Tuesday, he took two steps back on Sunday vs. the Brewers. He surrendered three runs over five innings against San Francisco, which isn’t bad but is still a far cry from what we expect from the 28-year-old. Sunday’s start against the Brewers got out of hand quickly as he allowed three runs in the first inning and another two in the third while issuing four free passes and striking out just five. The up and down week leaves his win/loss record at a horrible 1-7 to go along with a 7.61 ERA, 1.796 WHIP, and 45:19 K/BB ratio over 47 1/3 innings (10 starts).

He’s logged just one quality start all season and pitched into the sixth inning once. He’s allowed four earned runs or more in six of his starts as well. Castillo’s had some bad luck, and he rarely gets help from his defense, but it’s high time to hit the panic button if you roster him in your fantasy league. It’s hard to simply drop a player that you spent significant draft capital on, especially this “early” into the season. But we’re practically a third of the way through the season, and we’ve seen way more bad than good from Castillo at this point. Fantasy managers need to seriously consider benching him in his next turn against the Cubs. There’s still some hope that he can turn things around, but that window of opportunity is closing fast. That was a lot of negativity so let’s end this paragraph with a reminder of how nasty his stuff can be.

Marcell Ozuna (OF – ATL)
Ozuna was a league-winner last year during the shortened season. He put up an absurd .338/.431/.636 batting line with 14 doubles, 18 home runs, and 56 RBI across 267 plate appearances. He took home a Silver Slugger award while his home run and RBI totals led the National League. His 2021 season hasn’t lived up to the hype that last season built, though. In seven games last week (30 at-bats), he hit just .167/.194/.333 with one home run and three RBI. The long ball and two of his runs batted in came in Atlanta’s 20-1 drubbing of the Pirates on Friday.

The 30-year-old slugger is batting just .209/.282/.348 with seven home runs and 25 RBI over 206 plate appearances. To be fair, the counting stats aren’t terrible, but fantasy managers weren’t expecting him to be such a liability with his poor rate stats. He’s really struggled against left-handed pitching this season with a .604 OPS over 48 at-bats vs. a 1.330 OPS over 45 at-bats against southpaws in 2020. His Hard Hit rate and Barrel rate have both dropped off significantly from last season, but his .239 BABIP shows he’s had some poor luck, too. His .265 xBA, and .460 xSLG, which closely mirror his career marks, should give us some optimism.

Justin Turner (3B – LAD)
Turner was ice cold last week, going just 1-for-26 at the dish (.038/.107/.038). That’s quite the slump, but in reality, the veteran third baseman has been struggling all month. After a sizzling April in which he slashed .330/.409/.596 with six home runs and 20 RBI over 94 at-bats, Turner has pulled a 180 in May. Through 67 at-bats this month, he’s batting .179/.295/.239 with one home run and three RBI. The erratic month-to-month performances have given him an overall batting line of .267/.362/.447, which is below his career marks of .291/.368/.468.

He’s still rocking a 47.5 Hard Hit rate and 12.8% BB rate, both of which are the highest marks of his esteemed career. But he’s also striking out 21.8% of the time, which is the worst clip of his career. The good news is that the Dodgers have won 11-of-12 games, so they’ve been able to succeed despite Turner’s struggles. There’s nothing to suggest that he won’t turn things around the rest of the way. It’s also worth noting that historically May is the worst month of the season for Turner, who holds a .778 OPS across 726 career plate appearances. He’s never dipped below a .831 OPS in June, July, August, September, or October throughout his 13 years in the bigs.

Eddie Rosario (OF – CLE)
Rosario went 6-for-28 (.214/.241/.250) with one extra-base hit and one RBI across 28 at-bats over his last seven games. It wasn’t a good week, but it was really just a continuation of a poor month and an underwhelming season. The 29-year-old outfielder is batting just .212/.262/.321 with three home runs, 22 RBI, five stolen bases, and a 31:10 K/BB ratio over 156 at-bats. The five thefts are definitely a positive, but he hasn’t swiped a bag since April 24. He also hasn’t homered since May 3 and has just four extra-base hits over 67 at-bats this month. He ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in Hard Hit rate (34.4%), xwOBA (.279), xBA (.217), xSLG (.353), Barrel rate (3.9%), and Walk rate (5.9%).

Rosario has always been a streaky hitter, requiring fantasy managers to exercise plenty of patience. It still feels too soon to cut bait on him as he’s just two years removed from a 32 home run, 109 RBI campaign with the Twins. He’s always been a liability in OBP, but he’s been able to mitigate that with his power potential. It’s much easier to tolerate his ups and downs if you compliment him with other outfielders that can serve as batting average and one-base balancers. Rosario should continue to hit in the middle of the Indians’ lineup, regardless of his struggles, with Franmil Reyes on the shelf for five-to-seven weeks with an oblique strain.

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Jon Mathisen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @eazymath.

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