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12 Overvalued Players (Fantasy Football)

Jun 24, 2021


 
Death, taxes, and disappointing draft selections. It’s impossible to have a perfect draft and it’s inevitable that you will walk away with at least a couple players you’ll quickly regret drafting. While it’s impossible to fully prevent yourself from getting stuck with an underperformer, you can minimize that risk by attempting to determine which athletes may fall short of their expectations. Our featured experts are here to help with that by sharing their thoughts on who is currently overvalued.

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Q1. Who is the most overvalued RB based on his current half-PPR ECR and why?

Jonathan Taylor (IND): Consensus Rank – RB7
“When drafting a running back in the first round, he should have No. 1 overall running back upside. With how Frank Reich runs his offense, I don’t know how we get there with Taylor, who’s going as a mid-first rounder. It’s odd because this time last year, I was much higher on Taylor than the consensus. I like him, but did everyone forget about what happened the first 10 weeks of the season? Taylor was the RB19 and David Montgomery was the RB20. Taylor finished the year as the RB6 while Montgomery was the RB4. Many will talk about Montgomery’s schedule as the reason for his production, hence why he’s ranked at RB20 in ECR right now, but are they ignoring Taylor’s schedule? He played against the Texans TWICE, Packers, Raiders, Jaguars, and the Steelers (who were decimated by injuries in that game). That’s a large reason for his jump in production. I still like Taylor, just not nearly as much as the consensus. Nick Chubb is a better player who’s going after Taylor.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

D’Andre Swift (DET): Consensus Rank – RB16
“Based on pure talent, Swift already belongs in the top-12 RB conversation in the NFL. Unfortunately, it’s hard to have faith that Swift will finish in that range this year for fantasy purposes. While he could see plenty of targets in the passing game, the scoring opportunities on this bad Detroit Lions team probably aren’t going to be very plentiful. Additionally, he now has Jamaal Williams in this backfield to compete for touches with and Anthony Lynn has been vocal about his love for utilizing a committee approach. Swift is going to be a safe RB2 for your roster this season because of the floor he’ll bring you week-in and week-out. However, due to the offense he’s in, there’s virtually no upside. Think about it this way … would you have been as excited about Swift last season if he were on the New York Jets or Jacksonville Jaguars and in a near 50/50 timeshare? That could be the exact situation we’re looking at this season in Detroit.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Cam Akers (LAR): Consensus Rank – RB11
“Akers sitting at RB11 right seems a bit high, based on what he gave us in 2020. His four-game stretch at the end of the season highlighted the limits of the offense as a heavy run and short-passing team. The additions of Matthew Stafford and receivers shows the team wants to push the ball downfield, which could limit the amount of carries Akers could get. Don’t discount Darrell Henderson from eating into Akers’ workload since he was banged up during Akers’ stretch of strong games. Akers is talented but don’t overvalue him because this Rams team is built differently than it was in previous years.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Austin Ekeler (LAC): Consensus Rank – RB10
“Ekeler is a talented back, especially in PPR formats. However, as the RB10 in ECR, I struggle with his TD upside and potential ’21 volume with the young QB Justin Herbert under center. Ekeler’s breakout 2019 came with Philip Rivers, an older QB who needed to rely more heavily on the running backs in the offense. Herbert looked very comfortable slinging the ball all over the field last year and I would rather double-tap an elite WR at the turn and take Chris Carson/David Montgomery/J.K. Dobbins in Rounds 3/4 at to fill my RB slots.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Josh Jacobs (LV): Consensus Rank – RB21
“For me, it’s Jacobs. The good news is that he’s averaged 21 opportunities per game over the last two seasons. The bad news is that the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake to a two-year, $11-million contract with every single dollar guaranteed. He will have a role in the Las Vegas backfield and is my preferred target at his ADP.”
– Eric Moody (FantasyData)

Q2. Who is the most overvalued WR based on his current half-PPR ECR and why?

Mike Evans (TB): Consensus Rank – WR13
“What Evans has done throughout his career is no small feat. In his seven seasons in the NFL, he has never finished with less than 1,000 receiving yards in any given year. With that being said, he’s a roller coaster to have on your fantasy football roster. Last season, Evans had numerous games where he only had one to three receptions, but he was able to come down with a touchdown on several occasions to save his fantasy output. Evans brings some massive upside based on his size, skill set, and talent. However, fantasy managers need consistency from their WRs if they’re being drafted at a premium price. There’s a possibility that we see Evans move up into the top-12 WRs in ADP by the time draft season rolls around. He’ll provide you with some of those week-winning performances, but that’s too steep of a price for me to get on board with that unpredictability.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Mike Evans has had a very impressive career, but in 2020, a large amount of his fantasy value was tied up in touchdowns. That was also with Chris Godwin on the shelf for a good chunk of the season and before Antonio Brown showed up in Tampa. Evans will still be a WR2, but the Cowboys’ WRs (Amari Cooper & CeeDee Lamb) and Julio Jones are ranked lower in ECR and I would rather have any of them over Evans. Tom Brady is a master of spreading the ball around and exploiting weekly matchups. That puts Evans’ weekly floor/ceiling in question with so many options in the passing game.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Mike Evans finished as the WR9 last season, but half his teammates either missed games or wasn’t on the team. In 2021, the Bucs will have their trio at wide receiver, they’ll be returning their entire tight end unit, and they have added pass-catching back Gio Bernard into the mix. The soon-to-be 44-year-old, Tom Brady, will eventually gain chemistry with the rest of the pass-catchers, so Evans may not be Brady’s most reliable target. The regression in his touchdowns is likely to accrue, so right now Evans is being overvalued.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Chase Claypool (PIT): Consensus Rank – WR31
“For me, it’s Claypool. He may have finished as the WR19 on the season, but his year was littered with lackluster performances. He posted WR3 or better type numbers in just 50 percent of his games last year, which was tied with Jamison Crowder and DeVante Parker for 34th among wide receivers. His four-touchdown game in Week 5 really catapulted his numbers at season’s end, as he failed to top 59 yards in 11-of-16 games, making him a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks. With Ben Roethlisberger‘s arm strength seemingly deteriorating by the day, it’s tough to see Claypool having a true breakout season in 2021, as he relies on those high-value targets more than JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson do. Claypool is an upside pick for sure, but not one I’d bet heavily on.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

A.J. Brown (TEN): Consensus Rank – WR7
“This may not be a popular answer, but A.J. Brown. Julio Jones has averaged 10.2 targets per game since 2015. The Titans have 224 available targets and multiple receivers to feed outside of Jones. Tennessee also has wide receiver Josh Reynolds and tight end Anthony Firkser. Running back Derrick Henry had 378 rushing attempts in 2020. Jones is a better value, in my opinion.”
– Eric Moody (FantasyData)

Q3. Who is the most overvalued TE based on his current half-PPR ECR and why?

Kyle Pitts (ATL): Consensus Rank – TE6
“This may come as a shocker, but Pitts sitting at TE6 right now is overvalued. The ‘what if’ in his talent has everyone infatuated that he will dominate the fantasy world right off the bat. Let’s not forget that Pitts is still a rookie TE, and there have only been 11 rookie TEs who have eclipsed 600 yards since 1932. In 2020, Matt Ryan was unable to sustain multiple fantasy players consistently, especially when Julio Jones was out of the lineup. While Pitts is very talented, he is very overvalued as a rookie TE.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Kyle Pitts is overvalued. He could see around 100 targets in 2021. My issue is that you’re drafting Pitts at his ceiling based on his ADP. I’d much rather draft Logan Thomas or Noah Fant later in fantasy drafts.”
– Eric Moody (FantasyData)

Mike Gesicki (MIA): Consensus Rank – TE11
“Part of the reason we liked Gesicki last year was due to the lack of verified options in the Dolphins’ passing attack. That’s changed as we head into 2021, as the Dolphins have added Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to the arsenal. Despite the lack of options last year, Gesicki saw just 85 targets. There is a new offensive coordinator, which can certainly shake things up, but the additions of Fuller and Waddle reduce the need for Gesicki’s athleticism, and he’s not a possession-style tight end. His upside is capped, and his floor might be in jeopardy, too.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

T.J. Hockenson (DET): Consensus Rank – TE4
“The argument for Hockenson is a compelling one. He’s one of the lone targets in this offense and he should see plenty of work to sustain his fantasy value. Unfortunately, a price tag of ECR TE4 is a little outlandish for the promising TE. Last season with Sean McVay, Jared Goff threw for only 20 touchdowns with the incredible receiving corps that he had around him. Now, with a significant drop-off in receiving corps talent and offensive play-calling, it’s hard to see how Goff hits even that number in 2021. Hockenson will see plenty of targets, yes, but the scoring opportunities are going to be too few to sustain his value all the way up at TE4.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Mark Andrews (BAL): Consensus Rank – TE5
“Andrews as TE5 is fine, but the trouble is he doesn’t move the needle. He is not one of the elite TEs and the truth is a number of lower-end TEs could match his productivity in 2021. The Ravens consciously tried to upgrade their WR corps by adding Sammy Watkins and drafting Rashod Bateman. More options mean fewer potential targets for Mark Andrews and that puts his ‘safe TE play’ tag in serious jeopardy. Also, it means you’re passing on crucial RB/WR depth in your draft to take Andrews and I don’t want to do that either.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)


Thank you to the experts for giving us their overvalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.


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