Today we’re taking a look at some of the top values at the running back and quarterback positions for the 2021 fantasy football season.

Note that readers can find our 0.5 PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) by clicking here.

Start your early draft prep with our Mock Draft Simulator

Q1. Which player outside the top 30 RBs has the best chance to finish as a RB1 for the season?

Trey Sermon (RB – SF) ECR: RB40
The 49ers can be a frustrating offense when it comes to projecting running back totals because they have so many options on the roster and Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to involve them all at different points of the season. Last year, the 49ers had the third-most points scored by fantasy RBs, but Jeff Wilson Jr. was their highest-ranked at RB26. That could be a problem this year as well. Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Wayne Gallman, JaMychl Hasty, and Elijah Mitchell all have the potential to share touches in a crowded backfield. I think there are a couple of things that play into Sermon’s favor. First, he was a third-round pick and most teams do not take a running back in Round 3 just to sit on the bench. Second, there is no running back on the roster with a monster contract, which means Sermon does not have to worry about the coaching staff trying to establish an expensive running back to justify the contract ownership gave that player. Third, the players in front of him have injury concerns. Wilson had meniscus surgery this offseason and he will not be available until Week 8 coming off a season where he played only 12 games due to injury. Mostert missed eight games last year due to injury. Gallman is a career backup that has never had more than 150 rushing attempts in a season. Hasty had a chance to carve out a role last year and he averaged only 3.8 yards per carry and he fell out of favor. The job is there for the taking if Sermon is ready to seize the opportunity and the 49ers have one of the friendliest running back offenses in the NFL. Sermon is a player who could be completely off the fantasy radar to start the season that emerges as an RB1 with a couple of big games that lead to an expanded role.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Picking which 49ers RB will finish the season at the top of the depth chart is about as impossible as winning the lottery. Yet, we all want to play this game every year. Truth be told, I think every 49ers RB is currently undervalued. The 49ers, on the whole, are going to punish the league this year. Mark my words. However, the issue with San Fran’s stable of studs is that they always seem to be too broken down to play when the fantasy playoffs arrive. I think Sermon is the guy to target. As the RB40, he’s going to be available later in drafts. He should have some immediate flex value on an offense that wants to run and then run some more, but you should pick Sermon with your eyes set on the end of the season, not the start. Perhaps it’s anomalous, but the 49ers seem to have a knack for scoring rushing TDs in the final weeks of the season. In the final six weeks of 2019, Raheem Mostert scored 8 total touchdowns, scoring at least one every week. In all the weeks prior, he scored 2. In 2020, Jeff Wilson scored 5 TDs in the final 6 games of the season, all of them bunching into the final 4 weeks. The lesson here is simple: the 49ers seem to prop up at least one RB at the end of the season. With a roster full of perennial ankle-sprainers, Sermon is the one to keep your eye on. With any luck, he’ll establish his dominance early and often, but I’ll be happy if he’s an RB1 for the fantasy playoffs.
– Tim Meltzer (@Timmy_The_Metz)

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) ECR: RB29
Williams is a very talented player who the Broncos traded up for in the 2021 NFL Draft. I get that Melvin Gordon is there, but I think Javonte has a really good shot at getting a good amount of snaps and touches entering Week 1. The Broncos have a solid offensive line and the offense will hopefully take a step forward this season. I’m predicting Teddy Bridgewater to start, which helps all the skill position players. Williams isn’t walking into a massive workload right off the start, but he will be very involved and is a terrific value. Gordon has also had problems staying healthy during his career, which opens up Williams’ ceiling if he were to get hurt. He’s a great target if you are going wide receiver heavy to start your drafts and he has RB1 upside if he were to completely take over the backfield at some point during the season.
– Connor Rigg (@ConbonNFL)

Sticking with the rookie theme seems like a no brainer here, so I’ll go with Williams, who has been talked about this offseason as someone who could be the team’s starter as soon as Week 1. While I take that report with a grain of salt, I do think that the better talent will rise to the top and put Williams in the driver seat sooner rather than later. If he gets the job early enough then he definitely has a chance to finish the season as a top 12 running back in terms of fantasy points. The Broncos have issues at QB, meaning they could decide to lean on the running game regardless of who is calling the plays between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. That bodes well for whoever is toting the rock, so if that’s Williams early enough, he’s definitely got RB1 upside. That being said, even if Melvin Gordon starts the season as the team’s RB1 I could still see Williams getting plenty of work throughout each game and as the season goes along. The addition of a 17th regular season game means teams will have to get creative in how they spell their starters, so Gordon could easily see the bench in the third quarter allowing for Williams to shine in spot work. Either way, I think Williams is a terrific value later in redraft leagues with RB1 potential.
– Andrew Hall (@AndrewHallFF)

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) ECR: RB38
The University of North Carolina produced two very good running back prospects entering the 2021 NFL Draft. Carter had been splitting touches almost equally with former teammate Javonte Williams across his last two seasons at UNC but now gets a fantastic opportunity to compete as the RB1 on an underrated New York Jets roster. Fantasy managers tend to look away from the Jets offense for fantasy purposes based on their disappointing 2-14 record during a lost season under former head coach Adam Gase. However, the 2021 Jets will be a completely different team. Former 49ers DC Robert Saleh is the new head coach and brings OC Mike LaFleur, who will usher in a run-centric, motion-heavy offense that features several exciting new pieces. Carter is a master with his one-cut ability and can generate top-tier explosiveness when a running lane opens up. He managed consecutive 1,000 yard rushing seasons at UNC, totaling 16 touchdowns and adding 46 receptions for 421 yards as a receiver out of the backfield. His patient running style and incredible lateral quickness are a perfect match for the zone-run blocking LaFleur scheme. Some concern surrounds the usage of Tevin Coleman, who is likely to start the season due to familiarity within the system during the two years he spent in San Francisco. However, Coleman is 28 years old with a significant injury history, including being held to just eight games in 2020. Carter is currently being drafted as the RB38 in half-PPR redraft leagues, meaning you can draft a potential RB1 in the back of the eighth round. Michael Carter is a promising rookie running back prospect on an underrated offense and I feel confident that he will usurp the starting role due to his talent and skill set by mid-season, creating a great chance for him to finish as a RB1.
– Matt MacKay (@Matt_MacKay_)

Opportunity is everything when trying to hit big on backs in this category so Carter makes for a great target in the later rounds, The depth chart in New York isn’t imposing and Carter has enough draft capital to warrant serious consideration for double digit touches right out of the gate. The only thing that stands between Carter and the starting role is a dusty Tevin Coleman who is coming off an injury-plagued 2020 season and has never been the feature back for a full season. If Carter manages to snag the starting role heading into Week 1, he should easily eclipse 200 total touches, giving him an RB2 floor. When factoring in that he averaged over 7.0 yards per carry last season for a potent North Carolina offense, there is upside for much more. Either way, he is being drafted as a low-RB3 so he will be one of the best value picks of any back in redraft leagues.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)

Check out our Consensus Dynasty Rankings here

Q2. Which QB presents the best value at current ADP?

Jameis Winston (QB – NO) ECR: QB26
I’m considering Jameis Winston more of a high-probability, late-round gamble rather than a lock to return immediate value. He’s the QB26, so he’s probably not getting drafted in single-QB redraft leagues. In superflex, he certainly presents much more upside, since the position becomes a premium. That being said, if you are in a redraft league and you want to wait to pick a QB, might I suggest the following strategy? Take Jameis Winston AND Taysom Hill with your last couple of picks. Hill is the QB31, so both players should be available. Doing this ensures that you get the enviable value of whomever ends up as the Saints QB. It also lets you focus your early picks on solid position players. The primary reason why these two guys both have depressed value is because we have no idea who will start. Both Winston and Hill not only have the potential to be weekly Top-12 QBs, but both have already done it. Winston, despite throwing approximately 7 million interceptions, was the QB3 in 2019. And in 2020, when Drew Brees was out with injury, Hill started for a month and was the QB6 over that span. There’s a very real possibility that we see both of these ballers under center at some point in 2021, but Winston has more arm talent and seems to have the edge for the moment. With a well-rounded roster, a great coach and flanked by Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, look no further for your league-winning QB than James Winston…and Taysom Hill.
– Tim Meltzer (@Timmy_The_Metz)

There are still a lot of weapons in New Orleans, so whoever ends up as the starter in will end up as a great value. Both Winston (QB26) and Hill (QB31) have an ADP of a QB3 but both would be, at worst, streamable options if we knew who was starting. Winston should benefit from Sean Payton’s coaching and it appears that he has committed himself more than in the past this offseason. The talent has never been in question with Winston: In three seasons where he played all 16 games, he has surpassed 4,000 yards and thrown for at least 22 touchdowns. If he has truly matured as a person and a player, we will be looking at a back-end QB1 if he starts. As for Hill, he lags behind as a pure passer but he has the Konami Code rushing upside we covet. In his four start last year he averaged over 20 fantasy points which made him a shoo-in QB1. The Saints offense is one we want to invest in and either Winston or Hill make for a cheap way to do just that.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE) ECR: QB18
I have my concerns about Mayfield as a franchise quarterback worthy of a monster new contract. On his rookie deal, the Browns have been able to surround him with one of the best offensive lines in football. They have arguably the best running back duo in the NFL. They have surrounded him with skill-position talent Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper. They could have up to nine new defensive starters with all of the changes they made this offseason in free agency and the 2021 NFL Draft. They will begin to lose that depth the moment Mayfield signs a monster contract and I am not sure he is the type of quarterback that can compensate for a weaker roster. That is not going to happen until next year, though, and fantasy football is about this year, not years down the road. Mayfield on a rookie deal had 3,563 yards passing and 26 touchdowns in 2020, and he was the eighth ranked fantasy quarterback from Weeks 12 through 17. He will have an improved roster and with another year under his belt, he could easily improve on those numbers. He is a fantastic streaming QB2 with upside in his second year in the Kevin Stefanski offense. His ADP of 144 makes him available near the end of fantasy drafts and he should easily outperform that ADP, especially if he is paired with another quality starter taken later in fantasy drafts.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) ECR: QB15
Lawrence was the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and is being labeled as a generational prospect. It’s very hard to argue considering everything he has accomplished during his career. He landed in a very promising spot as well. The Jaguars have D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones for their main wide receivers plus James Robinson and Clemson teammate Travis Etienne at running back. Lawrence also brings rushing ability, which helps him have a stable floor each week. His arm strength and accuracy are some of the best I’ve seen at the quarterback position and he has a chance to post big numbers his rookie year. The Jaguars defense is still not very good, which may lead to more shootouts. He is currently QB15, which seems too low considering his weapons, rushing ability, and overall talent. Considering how the QB landscape is gravitating towards the QBs who run the ball, Lawrence will be a favorite target of mine in every redraft league.
– Connor Rigg (@ConbonNFL)

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) ECR: QB13
At the moment Burrow is going around pick 84 in ADP as the 12th QB off the board in 1QB leagues. For me, this is a tremendous value for someone who returns to an offense that got a major upgrade during the offseason. At the 2021 NFL Draft the Bengals passed on a top offensive line prospect and instead added Burrow’s former LSU teammate in Ja’Marr Chase. This pick was controversial but I definitely think it was the right move for the team in the long term. Burrow’s coming back from his injury and should be fine for Week 1, and now he has his old friend running routes to help him out down the field. The Bengals lost longtime teammates AJ Green and Gio Bernard in free agency but neither of them were really producing what they used to, making it a potential for addition by subtraction for them. Joe Mixon comes back at 100% as well, and as long as he stays healthy he should produce well this year too. Everything is looking up for Burrow and the Bengals, and with all the firepower and consistency in that offense, Burrow has top 5 QB potential, making him a great value at QB12 in drafts this year. He’s got some question marks, but his upside overshadows all of the negatives for me. I’d be ecstatic to get him in the end of the seventh round.
– Andrew Hall (@AndrewHallFF)

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) ECR: QB11
The Titans increased the appeal of Tannehill in redraft leagues by trading for perennial All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones this offseason. Corey Davis and Adam Humphries vacated 127 targets for Jones and Josh Reynolds to absorb, while A.J. Brown should produce a resounding WR1 season with Jones forcing defenders to direct less coverage towards him. Derrick Henry is coming off of a 378 carry, 2,027 yard, 17 touchdown rushing performance in 2020 and will have even bigger running lanes to operate in as the two All-Pro wideouts stretch the field. This newly improved Titans roster blends together to create the perfect play-action recipe for Tannehill to dominate. The veteran quarterback enters his ninth season in the league having accounted for the fifth-highest adjusted passing touchdown percentage at 6.09 percent, while ranking third in adjusted rushing touchdown percentage at 11.89 percent. The former collegiate wideout still has the mobility to make him a true dual-threat quarterback on a fully loaded offense in 2021. Especially in one-quarterback formats, Tannehill offers tremendous value with his rushing upside and delivers great throws down the seams and perimeter of the field. With close to a 5:1 TD:INT ratio in 2020, Tannehill should flood fantasy lineups with points based on his passing and rushing efficiency on one of the league’s best offensive units that is built to contend for a Super Bowl in 2021. He is a phenomenal value as the QB11 with an ADP of 96, allowing fantasy managers to build up a strong wide receiving corps in the early-to-mid rounds of fantasy drafts before securing a bonafide QB1.
– Matt MacKay (@Matt_MacKay_)

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.