Finding players who can return value is the name of the game in fantasy football every year. Even in the first round, when you’re taking one of the premier players in the NFL, you’re hoping that player can outproduce his average draft position (ADP). You’ll find players who do that in every round, and it’s your job (well, technically my job in this article) to identify those players.
Before I dive into who I like as ADP player values for each round, let’s set the parameters I’ll be using. This article will follow a 15-round draft for a 12-team redraft league. Also, I will be using our ADP Consensus tool that allows you to see where players are going on a variety of sites. With all of that information noted, here are the players I’m grabbing a ton of shares of in certain rounds due to their ADP.
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Round 1: Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) | ADP 7.3
Sometimes when taking a player, you’re interested in playing things safe. Other times, you’re looking for upside. Why not select a player that comes with both? Nick Chubb offers both a steady floor and an interesting ceiling this season. Chubb plays in a Browns offense that is based on running the ball often, so he is guaranteed a bevy of touches. Even with him missing four games last season, Chubb finished as the RB9 in half-PPR leagues. As of this moment, Chubb is being taken as RB8 on average, and if Kareem Hunt gets injured or is traded, then Chubb’s chances of finishing as an RB5 or better increase.
Round 2: Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) | ADP 22.3
The Julio Jones era has come to a close for the Atlanta Falcons, making Calvin Ridley the No. 1 option for Matt Ryan. Some people may say that Ridley isn’t cut out for being a go-to wide receiver, but they would be wrong. In the seven games that Jones missed in 2020, Ridley finished those weeks as WR26, WR13, WR18, WR5, WR1, WR17, and WR52 in half-PPR formats. On average, Ridley scored 16.7 fantasy points in the weeks that Jones was sidelined, which would have made him the WR3 over the course of the 2020 season. Seeing that the Falcons are a pass-oriented offense (even with Arthur Smith calling the shots), Ridley should have plenty of opportunities to be a top-five wideout in 2021.
Round 3: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) | ADP 31.3
A season ago, Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw his ADP skyrocket in the offseason due to him landing on the Kansas City Chiefs. The rookie running back would disappoint those who took him early in drafts, concluding 2020 as the RB22. While some people may have PTSD from Edwards-Helaire, he has a ton of upside in 2021. The Chiefs addressed the offensive line heavily this offseason, and neither Le’Veon Bell nor Damien Williams is on the roster anymore. All signs point toward Edwards-Helaire having an expanded workload next season.
Round 4: CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) | ADP 47.3
Early in the 2020 campaign, it looked as if we’d get special seasons from each of the notable wide receivers on the Dallas Cowboys. Sadly, the injury to Dak Prescott in Week 5 derailed what would have been a historic showing from CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup. Of the three wideouts on the Cowboys, Lamb was thriving with Prescott under center, cementing himself as WR12 through the first five weeks, giving him 1.4 more fantasy points than his counterpart in Cooper. Lamb is currently being taken as WR18 in fantasy drafts, but he has top-10 upside with Prescott returning next season.
Round 5: D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) | ADP 58
D.J. Moore has been one of my favorite players to target in recent years, and that won’t change in 2021. If anything, I’m getting even more shares of Moore than I’ve had in previous years due to the acquisition of Sam Darnold. While Darnold hasn’t yet lived up to his first-round draft capital, he is an upgrade in arm talent compared to Teddy Bridgewater. Moore has been limited to only eight touchdowns in his first three seasons, but we can blame that on unreliable play from his quarterbacks. Even then, he has finished as the WR38, WR18, and WR22 in his first three years in the league. Despite the lackadaisical performances from his previous quarterbacks, as Frank Ammirante of RotoBaller (check him out!) pointed out, Moore has been historically good before he turned 24 years old earlier this year.
Most Combined Receiving Yards before turning 24:
1. Randy Moss: 4,163 YDS
2. Mike Evans: 3,578 YDS
3. DeAndre Hopkins: 3,533 YDS
4. David Boston: 3,227 YDS
5. D.J. Moore: 3,156 YDS 👀Moore just turned 24 in April. He already has two 1,100+ YDS seasons under his belt.
STUD.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 17, 2021
Round 6: Mike Davis (RB – ATL) | ADP 69.7
Todd Gurley is no longer under contract with the Falcons, and the team made one notable signing in the offseason at the position. Instead of using high draft capital on a running back, Atlanta elected to sign Mike Davis. Davis just put together the best year of his career in 2020 while filling in for an injured Christian McCaffrey on the Carolina Panthers. The veteran rusher was RB15 last season, and he now has a clear shot to be the starter for the Falcons. Currently, Davis is being selected as RB29 on average, according to the ADP consensus.
Round 7: D.J. Chark Jr. (WR – JAC) | ADP 81.3
I was torn between choosing D.J. Chark Jr. or Damien Harris at this spot in the seventh round. While Harris is a fantastic value at the running back position, Chark has been a popular topic recently. There has been a ton of discourse surrounding Laviska Shenault as he enters his second season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The love for Shenault has caused Chark’s value to decline slightly, giving us a perfect value at wide receiver. With Trevor Lawrence operating the offense now, Chark finally has a quarterback that can allow him to do what he does best — stretch the field. His aDOT of 14 yards in 2020 proves that he has talent downfield.
Round 8: Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) | ADP 93
The first quarterback to crack the lift of ADP values is none other than Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams. Stafford has long been an underrated quarterback in both reality and in fantasy football. After being stuck on the Detroit Lions for 12 seasons, Stafford now gets to join the best offense he has ever been a part of with Sean McVay at the helm. So you’re telling me I can get Stafford after Joe Burrow — who is returning from a serious knee injury — in most fantasy football drafts? Sign me up.
Round 9: Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) | ADP 98.7
There are reasons to be skeptical of the pass-catchers on the Denver Broncos, especially due to the unknown quarterback situation. Either Drew Lock or Bridgewater is going to be named the starter sometime before Week 1. That being said, I still believe there is value to be had in Denver’s aerial attack. Even though I like Courtland Sutton and Jeudy, I’m electing to side with the one who is available later in drafts. Jeudy had a solid rookie season in 2020 despite uncharacteristically dropping 10 passes, which can partly be attributed to the inaccuracies of Lock.
Round 10: Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) | ADP 115.3
Every year, there are always mid-to-late round running backs who I end up falling in love with during fantasy football drafts. This season, Gus Edwards is one of my favorite late-round picks at the running back position. J.K. Dobbins is certainly going to see more opportunities for the Baltimore Ravens in 2021, but Edwards is going to have a role in the offense as well. The Ravens didn’t sign Edwards to an extension for no reason. And despite bolstering their wide receiver room, Baltimore’s offense is still going to feature plenty of running as long as Greg Roman is the offensive coordinator.
Round 11: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) | ADP 125
In the 11th round, quite a few players could be considered decent values at their current ADP. Guys like DeVonta Smith, Corey Davis, and Shenault are all wide receivers that should have plenty of opportunities to returns loads of value in 2021. But the wide receiver I have my sights set on this offseason is Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman flashed potential as a rookie last season despite having an inconsistent role. From Weeks 9-17, Pittman recorded two weeks of WR21 finishes or better. With Carson Wentz now under center for the Indianapolis Colts and an older T.Y. Hilton returning, I expect big things from Pittman in the upcoming season.
Round 12: Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) | ADP 135
The D’Andre Swift fan club has grown rather large this offseason, and there is no reason to believe he won’t perform well in his second season with an uptick in touches. But Swift isn’t alone in garnering touches in Detroit’s backfield, as the Lions signed Jamaal Williams in free agency this offseason. Williams is capable of handling pass-catching duties, which could make him a viable target in later rounds. Even though he won’t have the starting job, Williams can finish as a top-40 player at the running back position in 2021.
Round 13: Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN) | ADP 146.3
There are always running backs in fantasy football that are considered premier ‘handcuff’ options. In recent years, Alexander Mattison has been a prime example of this because he plays behind an oft-injured Dalvin Cook. Mattison still has value in 2o21 with Cook still starting for the Minnesota Vikings, and he doesn’t have a high price. According to FantasyPros’ ADP consensus, Mattison is being selected as RB50 on average. If you’re looking for a running back with upside in the event that Cook gets injured, then Mattison is worth considering later in drafts.
Round 14: Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) | ADP 161.7
The second and final quarterback to make the list of ADP values is Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is the most highly-touted quarterback prospect we’ve seen since Andrew Luck. Throughout his collegiate career at Clemson, Lawrence solidified his status as a quarterback that could make a smooth transition to the NFL. Even though I’m hesitant to believe in Urban Meyer, Lawrence has a solid arsenal of weapons in Chark, Shenault, James Robinson, Travis Etienne, and Marvin Jones Jr. Besides his ability to throw the ball, Lawrence’s rushing upside is what gives him an opportunity to surpass his ADP in 2021.
Round 15: Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) | ADP 182
In the final round of drafts, the possibilities are endless as you peruse the players who are still available. For the 15th and final round, at their consensus ADP, I like guys like Anthony Firkser, Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Gerald Everett, among others. However, the rookie wide receiver I’m targeting the most near the end of drafts is Rashod Bateman. Even with Marqise Brown still in Baltimore, Bateman now becomes the most talented wideout for the Ravens. Given his low price, there’s absolutely no reason to be out on Bateman, even if you believe Baltimore’s offense is not ideal for wide receivers.
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Skyler Carlin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Skyler, check out his archive and follow him @skyler_carlin.
