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Buy High, Sell Low: Jose Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor

Buy High, Sell Low: Jose Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor

Three months are in the books for the 2021 MLB season, and we can no longer make the same arguments to defend some players. The numbers are what they are, and trends are more likely to continue than break.

That has always been the focal point of this column, but the upcoming turn of another calendar page shines an even brighter spotlight on the situation.

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Players to Buy High

José Altuve (2B – HOU)
José Altuve is the next exhibit in a long-running series of “numbers from 2020 as an outlier.” It isn’t true of every player, but it’s certainly worth noting when we see someone sink to career lows and then revert right back toward his career averages.

That is the case with Altuve, and we should have seen it coming.

In fairness, many fantasy managers did. Altuve wasn’t a complete flier on Draft Day. It’s also easy to look at his statistics across the board and see a downgrade in almost every single one from 2019 to 2020. Now approaching the end of June, his rebound isn’t just sustained: It’s the indication that he never really fell apart.

The only element of Altuve’s game that has not returned — and almost certainly will not — is his stolen bases. Gone are the days when he hits 20 home runs with 30 steals. He is still contributing everywhere else and is once again a mainstay near the top of hitting leaderboards.

Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS)
If looking to buy players reaching their high point, then Xander Bogaerts must be on that list. He’s currently setting career-best marks in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, and he’s on pace for the second-highest home run total of his career.

As always, where we see a “Buy High” situation, others may view an opportunity to “Sell High.” This begs the question, will Bogaerts continue to surge?

According to his underlying metrics, yes.

Bogaerts’ strikeout (9.2%) and walk (18.0%) rates are almost identical to those of 2020, so little has changed in his ability to make contact. What has improved is the quality of said contact. Bogaerts’ 10.1% barrel rate is the highest of his career. Surprisingly, his hard-hit rate is almost identical to last year and a tick below 2018 and 2019. That’s actually a good sign since it means he could get better over the remainder of the season.

I’m to pay a premium to reap the rewards.

James Kaprielian (SP – OAK)
James Kaprielian just tossed the fourth quality start of his young career. It was also the first time he threw back-to-back quality starts and completed the sixth inning in consecutive outings.

He won’t go unnoticed for much longer.

Kaprielian is turning into the pitcher Oakland coveted when dealing away Sonny Gray to the Yankees, and the hype is starting to grow. It’s valid.

Kaprielian entered his most recent start with a 2.86 ERA of 2.86, but a 3.80 xERA and 4.26 FIP. Regression was coming. And what happened on Tuesday night? Kaprielian regressed to the tune of three earned runs allowed in six innings.

Now his ERA sits at 3.06, and I’m absolutely looking to buy.

Kaprielian has yet to reach double-digit strikeouts in a single outing, but he has struck out at least six batters six times in 11 starts. He’s averaging over a strikeout per inning (9.36 K/9) and just completed his first game without allowing a walk all season.

Such a small sample size certainly makes Kaprielian risky, but the future is undoubtedly bright. That future also may already be here.

Players to Sell Low

Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)
A few weeks ago, I wrote about Francisco Lindor as a “Sell Low” candidate, but with a caveat. There was almost no conceivable way Lindor would proceed through the entire season without any signs of life or movement back toward his mean. Therefore, when the eventual improvement arrived, we needed to sell once and for all.

The improvement is here. Now we sell.

Lindor has been far better in June than either of the first two months of the season. Far better, however, is more an indictment of how poorly he hit in April and May than any accolades we could assign for June’s numbers. He has more home runs this month than the first two combined, but it’s still only nine on the season and five in June. The better batting average? Just .245.

Again, we knew there would be a pop, and we’d have to sell when it happened. This is it. Someone will target Lindor as a “Buy Low” candidate whose stock is about to turn around and rise. Don’t keep holding the bag if this is the best we’ll get from him in 2021.

Ryan Yarbrough (SP/RP – TB)
Ryan Yarbrough was one of the first pitchers I mentioned as a “Sell Low” candidate in the early weeks of this column. A few months later, let’s turn back to comb through his numbers.

Yarbrough hasn’t been bad despite pitching to the highest ERA (4.48) of his career. The reason for optimism would be that his xERA (3.77) and FIP (4.25) are both lower, creating some room for positive regression.

The problem is Yarbrough isn’t continually making strides in the same direction. He has been, in a word, inconsistent.

Yarbrough has allowed five or more earned runs in five of his 16 appearances while limiting opponents to one or no earned runs in another five. The latter is deceiving, though. Of those five impressive outings, he started only one game. The rest were in relief following the team’s “opener.”

Therein lies the other struggle with rostering Yarbrough. His role on the Tampa Bay Rays is fluid and, while he gets his innings, he doesn’t always have the luxury of working deep into games. Yarbrough has thrown fewer than 80 pitches more times (six) than he has thrown at least 90 pitches in a game (five). With his strikeout rate sitting at well below one-per-inning (7.30 K/9), he isn’t showing enough to increase his value.

Jon Lester (SP – WAS)
Like what I wrote about Yarbrough, Jon Lester pitching to a 15.6% strikeout rate three months into the season is terrifying. The slightest hiccup in his production will yield an absolutely useless outing for fantasy managers.

To Lester’s credit, he had thrived through June until his most recent outing, in which he allowed a season-high seven earned runs against the Marlins. In every way, that was his worst start of the season, so it’s possible to consider it the exception rather than the rule.

That might be true. Maybe Lester isn’t on the verge of another disaster.

He also doesn’t appear to be on the verge of an increase in value. His 5.15 FIP is currently higher than his already worrisome 4.99 ERA.

Pitching in his 16th season, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Lester’s fastball velocity is at a career-low 88.6 mph. Most of his other pitches are suffering the same fate, which helps explain why his strikeout rate is so poor. We may ultimately see a few more random moments of decent production, but Lester’s arrow remains pointing down.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.

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