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Buy Low, Sell High: Kyle Tucker, Luis Castillo, Kris Bryant (2021 Fantasy Baseball)

Buy Low, Sell High: Kyle Tucker, Luis Castillo, Kris Bryant  (2021 Fantasy Baseball)

Each week in this column, we will continue to look at players through the lens of advanced metrics and various statistical trends to discover which players are underachieving or overachieving in the hopes of identifying potential trade targets or those worth selling at peak value.

Some of the data can be used to acquire a player at a lower price point because he has lost value or sell players when they peak in value for a larger return on your investment.

Find stats showing that a player’s value is actually on the upswing and acquire that player at a fair price, knowing his value is almost sure to keep increasing anyway. Conversely, sell players who hold widely held perceived value but for whom underlying stats show may be on the verge of seeing the floor collapse and get out now.

Thus far, the data sample is starting to stabilize, and while more time is still needed to truly gather which players look like premium buys or sunk costs, we have enough to guide our decisions.

This week features a star-studded cast of buy-low candidates, all hitting under .200, and perhaps quite a few surprising sell high ones as well.

Remember, every ball hit and thrown still tells a story, and if you want to review previous Buy Low, Sell High suggestions from prior weeks, you can view them here.

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Buy Low

Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU)
Another week, another opportunity to buy low on Kyle Tucker. However, Tucker is no longer hovering below the Mendoza line, and he’s actually hitting .280 with six home runs, 22 runs scored, and three stolen bases over the last month. Nonetheless, his full-season stat line still shows a .230 BA with a .325 wOBA and just five total stolen bases. Tucker’s  .303 xBA and .395 xwOBA tell a different story. Time is running out to acquire him at a discount.

Alex Kirilloff (OF – MIN)
After a relatively quiet start to the season, Kirilloff caught fire before landing on the IL. Healthy again, his manager likely isn’t thrilled with the .244 BA, but his .305 xBA shows the upside. What might be more egregious is the fact that an underwhelming .311 wOBA is masking a stellar .404 xwOBA. Kirilloff may not yet be an OBP machine, but he makes good contact, and he’s hitting .294 over the last month. He also has a MaxEV of 108.4 MPH.

via GIPHY

Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL)
Gone are the days when Blackmon threatened to steal double-digit bags, but he hasn’t lost his skill at the plate despite a .250 BA. Blackmon’s .310 xBA shows he’s still an asset in batting average, and his .327 wOBA is dwarfed by a .385 xwOBA. He still gets to call Coors Field home, and Colorado will continue to hit him in the heart of the order. Don’t expect the world; his Whiff% and Chase Rate are all trending at high rates, and he’s not barreling the ball (37th percentile Barrell%) as much as you’d like. Still, Blackmon’s BB%, HardHit%, and xSLG are all painted red on his Statcast page.

via GIPHY

Alec Bohm (3B – PHI)
Alec Bohm may have been dropped in your league, but he’s still rostered in 70% ownership of most formats. Bohm’s .205 BA is brutal, but the  .263 xBA reveals that he’s making better contact than this. His .246 wOBA looks dreadful, but the .314 xwOBA provides enough of a reason to see if you can pry him loose for a song and hope he goes on a tear as he did for an extended stretch in 2020.

Luis Castillo (SP – CIN)
Should I duck? Castillo might arguably be the biggest early-round bust of the season so far. However, his BA against may sit at a frightening .321, but a .263 xBA suggests the bats should not be so fortunate. That’s the second-highest differential in baseball. Making matters worse is a .505 SLG against compared to a .405 xSLG (a .100 differential that ranks as the third-highest in MLB). A 7.22 ERA is the reason Castillo’s roster percentage across Yahoo leagues has called to 80%, but I bet if that number was closer to his 4.26 xERA, managers would have far more patience.

Sell High

Kris Bryant (3B/OF – CHI)
Kris Bryant has been quite a story this season, and for good reason. He’s hitting .320 with 11 home runs and nearly 70 combined runs and RBIs. However, that 425 wOBA belies a .326 xwOBA, and his exemplary .320 BA overshadows a solid but not spectacular .281 xBA. I’m not suggesting Bryant is suddenly going to go into a tank, but his performance, and thus his value, may currently be peaking at the moment.

via GIPHY

Adam Frazier (2B/OF – PIT)
Adam Frazier might legitimately contend for the NL batting title this year if he keeps hitting like this. Frazier currently sports an average over .330, and he’s hitting over .360 this month. He has also scored a healthy 27 runs. Unfortunately, Frazier doesn’t contribute much to other categories, and his .333 BA is fronting for a .298 xBA. Frazier is a solid contact hitter on a really poor team, and once the batting average regresses to a very good but not great level, there will not be much upside left. Move him now while he’s still third in the National League in batting average.

Austin Riley (3B – ATL)
Austin Riley is hitting .305 BA, but a .266 xBA punctures that helium balloon a little. Add in a .409 wOBA that’s deflated some by a .372 xwOBA, and you have a player overperforming his peripherals. The guy has a .405 BABIP. I have mentioned Riley as a sell-high candidate in this space before, and he continues to be just that.

via GIPHY

Marcus Semien (2B/SS – TOR)
Marcus Semien’s second base eligibility made him appealing on draft day, and his .297 BA would seem to be the reward. Sadly, a .240 xBA means it’s time to take off the rose-colored lenses. In fact, when you compare his .392 wOBA with his .331 xwOBA, you get the third greatest differential in baseball. Sell now while he’s still raking.

Trent Grisham (OF – SD)
A successful player with draft-day hype currently hitting .301 BA makes for the perfect sell high when you realize he has a .250 xBA and his .389 wOBA compared to his .332 xwOBA represents the seventh-greatest differential in the league. I get the appeal of a potential 20/20 talent, but Grisham’s career-high .389 BABIP won’t last forever. Nearly all rest of season projections say he will fall short of that feat.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.

Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyEvolves.

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