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Early Overvalued Rookies in Redraft Leagues (2021 Fantasy Football)

Every year, rookies have a certain glow to them when it comes to redraft leagues. Drafters think about the best-case scenario, have no comparable data to compare and take rookies at those values. But remember that most rookies don’t work out, let alone in their first year. After all, for every Justin Jefferson, there’s a Henry Ruggs. Below are a few examples of rookies currently being overrated (via ADP) in fantasy re-drafts.

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Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA): WR48 ADP

Jaylen Waddle certainly has the resume of a player that could contribute right away. The second receiver taken in the draft – sixth player overall – and reunited with the quarterback whom he enjoyed his most success with at Alabama, Waddle sports 4.3 speed and averaged nearly 19 yards-per-reception in college. Miami also traded back up in the draft for the pick that was ultimately used on Waddle. What’s not to like?

First off, the Dolphins didn’t exactly sling it last year, throwing 35 times per game which was good for just 18th in the league. On top of that, the Dolphins not only returned all of their primary pass catchers but added some beyond Waddle. Will Fuller, perpetually on the verge of a breakout, was signed in the off-season and does the one thing Waddle already does, which is going long. Miami added other players as well – Malcolm Brown, Hunter Long – who won’t be taking up many targets but will siphon off a few from Waddle. As far as receivers, I would much rather take Corey Davis (WR49), who should be the top target in New York, or Michael Gallup (WR51), who will be part of a more pass-heavy offense.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT): RB18 ADP

On talent alone, Najee Harris could be an RB1 in fantasy leagues this year. The former five-star recruit was the top runner for the top coach for the top team in America last year, parlaying that resume into being the 24th overall pick in the 2021 Draft and the starting job for the Steelers. But Harris’ talent will have to overcome many other factors going against him, namely the Pittsburgh offensive line. According to PFF grades, the unit overall ranked 17th and was an abysmal 31st in run blocking last season. Now, they are down to just one returning starter to that illustrious unit after the recent retirement of former Pro Bowler David DeCastro.

The line problems are compounded by the quarterback they’re protecting. Ben Roethlisberger is entering his age-39 season and coming off a 2020 campaign where the offense was forced to alter its game plan by allowing shorter, quicker throws thanks to Roethlisberger’s major elbow surgery. The theory is now that the elbow has had time to heal, Roethsliberger can start launching it again and stretching the field. This would, of course, be good news for Harris and the run game, but I don’t know that I trust a quarterback who will turn 40 in nine months and is coming off a major injury to his throwing elbow to return to form.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB19), the first running back in last year’s NFL Draft, would be one option ahead of Harris. His offensive line is much better, there is no question about quarterback play in Kansas City, and the depth chart is clear of any competition.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC): QB16 ADP

Trevor Lawrence surely has a long and successful career ahead of him but taking him as the fourth backup quarterback in most fantasy drafts in his rookie season seems like a stretch. There’s not much to like about this Jacksonville offense that would lend itself to Lawrence being immediately fantasy-relevant.

Let’s start with the coaching. Brian Schottenheimer is an uninspiring choice to guide Lawrence in his rookie year (or any year). He’s never led an offense that finished in the top-10 in passing yards and has just one season of leading an offense in the top-10 of passing touchdowns when he didn’t have Russell Wilson to rely on.

The second would be the supporting cast. The team returns good, not great, options in DJ Chark and last year’s second-round pick Laviska Shenault. There was surprising rookie James Robinson who came out of nowhere to run for 1,000 yards. But Jacksonville was so happy that they drafted Lawrence’s Clemson teammate Travis Etienne in the first round. The running game may very well be the strength of the Jaguars offense, but that doesn’t translate to Lawrence leading fantasy teams. I’d rather take the likes of Baker Mayfield (QB18), two spots lower than Lawrence, who is coming off his best season as a pro and a playoff birth.

Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG): WR65 ADP

Despite just 18 games at the position, Kadarius Toney and his elite athleticism shot up draft boards before being taken 20th by the Giants. New York surely envisions using Toney in many ways, but do any of those translate to fantasy relevance?

Let’s first look at who will be calling the plays in New York this season. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett doesn’t exactly inspire when it comes to creative play calling. He already has Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Darius Slayton to juggle, and now Toney? Good luck.

Of course, the reason all of these playmakers are here is to shore up the quarterback who is supposed to be getting them the ball. Daniel Jones is in year three trying to prove he was worth the sixth overall pick in 2019 and, to date, has failed. He’s barely averaging 220 passing yards passing, has just 35 passing touchdowns over two seasons, and has turned the ball over an impressively bad 39 times. So not only is Toney hoping to pick up the target scraps, he needs Daniel Jones to be good enough for there to be meaningful scraps. I would rather have Toney’s Giants teammate Darius Slayton at his ADP (WR66) or the Falcons Russell Gage (ADP: WR69) now that Julio Jones is gone.

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Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @DLF_Moore.

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