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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Standard (2021 Fantasy Football)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Standard (2021 Fantasy Football)

It’s been a few months since I last utilized the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator, which allows users to practice drafting quickly and efficiently. Fantasy managers can incorporate many of their leagues’ distinct league settings, such as setting the number of teams, PPR scoring levels and even adjust each positional group’s draft priority level based on perceived preferences by competitors in their leagues. For example, if you know that your league highly prioritizes rookies in your drafts, you can adjust the Mock Draft Simulator to select rookies more frequently than their rankings and ADPs suggest.

Beyond this, many fantasy managers don’t realize the benefits of mock drafting throughout the offseason, instead preparing in late July or August right before their drafts. However, it’s best to start practicing as soon as you know your league’s draft order, or even before then, to gauge changes in ADP rankings and to better understand continual trends over time. Since my last mock draft, one of the most apparent changes has been an upward trajectory for perennial RB1 Ezekiel Elliott while young RB Josh Jacobs has seemingly fallen in the ranks and ADP. For further reference, please see my other two mock drafts – both from April.(Standard Superflex, Standard). In these prior two articles, I tested both an early- and late-round draft slot, so in this article, I will pick from right in the middle: the 1.06.

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Strategy

As I note in all of my mock draft articles, knowing your league settings before your drafts are crucial. In this mock draft, I’ll simulate a draft in a “standard” (i.e., 0 PPR) league, which means that RBs and touchdown-dependent skill-position players are more valuable. There is no bonus awarded to receptions, so high-reception RBs (e.g., Austin Ekeler) and possession/low touchdown receivers (e.g., CeeDee Lamb or Julio Jones) are less favorable. As such, my strategy will be to select multiple young, bell-cow RBs early in the draft – and perhaps take a premier TE if one were to fall to me in the mid-3rd (as I assume the consensus TE1 Travis Kelce won’t last until the mid-2nd round). I will target high-upside, deep threat WRs in the middle-to-late rounds and then wrap my draft up with a late-round QB or two, depending on how things shake out.

The Mock Draft

Roster: 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX/6BN

12-Team, Zero PPR, Snake Format, 6th Position

Round 1.06 – Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
From the various mock drafts I’ve done thus far into the offseason, I anticipated a strong RB-run to begin the draft with the first five picks. Unsurprisingly, this is what happened in this mock draft, with five RBs being drafted before the 1.06. With this pick, I wanted to take the best available RB since, in 0 PPR leagues, touchdown-dependent RBs are more valuable than WRs. As such, I took Alvin Kamara, the reigning RB1. I believe he’s the best all-around RB in the league, and although he’s surely more valuable in PPR leagues due to his exceptional receiving prowess, his immense touchdown upside makes him more than worthy of the 1.06.

Other Players Considered: Ezekiel Elliott

Round 2.07 – Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
This spot presented me with a much more difficult decision than in the first round. Had Travis Kelce somehow fallen to me at the 2.07, I would have scooped him up here, but that’s a bit of wishful thinking. Beyond that no-brainer potential pick in the second, I wanted to double down on the RB position. I opted for a player whom I anticipate having a massive workload: Najee Harris. Mike Tomlin, Head Coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, isn’t shy about favoring a single RB and using him as a bell-cow, as we saw with Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, James Conner, etc. With them drafting Harris in 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft, it’s clear that they plan to utilize him heavily in their game plan. I’m hoping that a bona fide WR1 falls to me in the 3rd.

Other Players Considered: Antonio Gibson, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf

Round 3.06 Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
Although I hoped that D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, or DeAndre Hopkins would fall to me here in the 3rd, there were some very appealing options still available. Ultimately, I went with the best WR remaining on the board: Michael Thomas. Many are fearful of the New Orleans offense in 2021 sans Drew Brees, but in the few games where Thomas was healthy last season and then-backup QB Taysom Hill started, Thomas actually drew a whopping 37 targets (32.5% target share) for 343 yards. And let’s not forget Thomas’ record-breaking 2019 campaign – the last year he was healthy. Regardless of who’s named the starting QB for New Orleans this season, Thomas will crush defenses.

Other Players Considered: Mike Evans, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Keenan Allen

Round 4.07- David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
Even after selecting two RBs in the first three rounds, I wanted to keep building and improving my RB corps with high-volume players. David Montgomery is one of my favorite targets in redraft this year, as many discredit his great 2020 season due to Tarik Cohen’s torn ACL early in the season, along with the light schedule to end the year. However, he still finished as the RB6 in 0 PPR leagues last year but is currently ranked as the RB19. That screams value, and I’m taking it every chance I get.

Other Players Considered: Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, D.J. Moore

Round 5.06 – Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
With my team slowly coming together, with a heavy focus on RBs, I wanted to take the best available non-RB with my 5th round pick. As such, I chose Tyler Lockett, WR for Seattle. Although he’s surely the WR2 on his team now with the ascension of the aforementioned Metcalf, Lockett is still extremely productive with Russell Wilson at the helm. He’s been uber-efficient almost every season of his career, and despite a knee injury and severe volatility, he still finished as the WR11 in 2020. With a strong RB corps featuring three high-volume plays, I believe my team could withstand Lockett’s weekly volatility. Ultimately, he’ll finish as a WR2, at worst, in fantasy this season, though the journey may be a bit unsettling and turbulent.

Other Players Considered: Cooper Kupp, Tee Higgins, T.J. Hockenson

Round 6.07- Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
Unsurprisingly, the middle rounds are full of quality WRs for fantasy in 2021. I was willing to take another RB – which would be my fourth of this draft – with this pick, but with Raheem Mostert, Ronald Jones II, and Chase Edmonds as the top options available, and considering my already-dominant RB group, I decided to beef up my WR corps by taking Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk had a solid rookie season, even though premier TE George Kittle missed much of the season and looks to be the WR1 for San Francisco in 2021. I’m not investing too heavily with this pick, so if Aiyuk were to underwhelm, my team wouldn’t be hurt too badly. I’ll make a note of this pick and try to bolster my WRs in the coming rounds.

Other Players Considered: Raheem Mostert, Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark Jr.

Round 7.06 – Chase Edmonds (RB – ARI)
I oscillated between several players for this pick. Still, I ultimately looked toward the Mock Draft Simulator’s Pick Predictor function, which reflects the likelihood of each player being selected by other teams before your next pick. As such, the only player that stood out was Chase Edmonds, who had a 94% chance of being selected before my next pick. He also happened to be the best RB remaining – Javonte Williams was tempting, however. I’m hoping to take a high-upside WR with my next pick, or perhaps a solid TE if one were to fall.

Other Players Considered: Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller IV, Dallas Goedert

Round 8.07- Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Honestly, this pick was strictly between two players for me, both of whom play for Denver: WR Jerry Jeudy and the aforementioned RB Javonte Williams. At this point, I looked at my roster as I weighed the advantage of a potential great RB option versus the highly touted WR prospect who had a mediocre but bright rookie campaign. Ultimately, I went with Jeudy as my team specifically would benefit more greatly from a Jeudy sophomore surge, considering my strong RBs and average WR depth.

Other Players Considered: Javonte Williams

Round 9.06 – Noah Fant (TE – DEN)
This is where I’d consider drafting a QB in 1QB leagues, as there is still an abundance of quality fantasy options available in this draft, namely Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill, and Matthew Stafford. I looked at the teams drafting after me and before my next pick and noticed all but one had already drafted a QB. This suggests that, at worst, I should be able to get in the next round one of the three QBs I mentioned previously. Although I believe Hurts has game-breaking dual-threat ability at QB, the individual value of QBs in 1QB leagues limits his importance to my team, especially compared to Tannehill or Stafford. As such, I took the best TE on the board: Noah Fant. Fant should be a solid TE1 this season, with top 5 upside due to his incredible athleticism and receiving ability. I’ll look to grab a second TE in the last few rounds of this draft to hedge against Fant possibly underwhelming.

Other Players Considered: Jalen Hurts, Laviska Shenault Jr.

Round 10.07- Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
My “gamble” paid off, and all three QBs I noted previously made it back to me in the 10th round. As such, I smashed the “Draft” button to select Jalen Hurts. The only other player I even thought about was Shenault, Jr., but I already have four solid WRs on my team and can load up on more high-upside players in subsequent rounds.

Other Players Considered: Laviska Shenault, Jr.

Round 11.06- Nelson Agholor (WR – NE)
With just four rounds remaining, I wanted to resume grabbing potential quality starters at RB and WR. However, I must not forget to take another TE in the last round or two if one with solid upside were to fall. As such, I took the top WR left on the board: Nelson Agholor. Although he’s disappointed since being draft in the 1st round by the Philadelphia Eagles several years ago, Agholor had a solid 2020 season with the Las Vegas Raiders and signed a relatively big deal to be the New England Patriots’ WR1 in 2021. As my WR5, I don’t see much to lose here.

Other Players Considered: Jamison Crowder, Rashod Bateman, Philip Lindsay

Round 12.07- Philip Lindsay (RB – HOU)
We’re just trying to take whatever value we can find with these remaining picks. Although I don’t believe Lindsay will have much standalone value in Houston, if David Johnson were to go down, Lindsay could fill in nicely and produce some solid RB2 weeks. However, this is also dependent on Deshaun Watson not being suspended due to his tumultuous offseason.

Other Players Considered: Tarik Cohen, Sony Michel, Jalen Reagor, Joshua Kelley

Round 13.06 – Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC)
I chose Joshua Kelley, RB for the Los Angeles Chargers with my second-to-last pick in this draft. Kelley underwhelmed in his rookie season despite a major hamstring injury to the team’s RB1, Austin Ekeler. However, Kelley may get some good playing time alongside his excellent receiving-back counterpart in Ekeler. Going into these picks, you want to draft players who can return solid value but whom you can cut on the dime if they were to disappoint early in the season. The worst thing you could do is to draft someone this late whom you’ll refuse to drop if a better option were available on the waiver wire. Don’t miss out on the next Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, or even Jordan Howard.

Other Players Considered: Jalen Reagor, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki

Round 14.07- Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
I didn’t forget to take a second TE in this draft to help hedge against the possibility of Fant underwhelming in 2021. Although TE is extremely similar in fantasy after the top three options, I think it’s okay to draft a high-upside TE2 late in your drafts if you don’t get one of those top options. Higbee disappointed many fantasy managers in 2020 after a sensational finish to the 2019 season, leading to this depressed ranking and ADP. With the departure of fellow TE Gerald Everett to Seattle and with the improvement at QB with Matthew Stafford over Jared Goff, Higbee could be a great late-draft sleeper for your 2021 drafts.

Other Players Considered: Irv Smith Jr., Jonnu Smith, Evan Engram

Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Results

I was given a solid draft grade (B+ – 88/100), primarily due to my above-average bench and depth compared to the rest of the league. Although I would have liked to have a stronger set of starters, I believe my team has the upside necessary to win the championship. You need to consistently win most weeks in fantasy and have the top-producing players, so choose those with greater upsides. Ultimately, I believe my core of Kamara, Harris, Thomas, Montgomery, and Lockett will outproduce my opponents most weeks. However, being in a 0 PPR league, where touchdowns are more valuable, Kamara and Thomas may offset each other since only one could score on any given drive. Nonetheless, I really like my team.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to a more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.

Jared Lese is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, check out his archive and follow him @JaredL_FF.

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