We’re now two months into the season, and this is a great time to take a step back and look at your team and its apparent strengths and weaknesses. It’s also a good time to take a look at some players who have “expected” numbers that are significantly different from their actual numbers through these first two months. Not only will this data show us who is outperforming their underlying metrics, but it will also present us with some potential buy-low and sell-high candidates depending on what we find.

Throughout this series, we’ll look at different Statcast metrics for batters and pitchers each week. We’ll talk numbers and what they mean, and I’ll provide some player-specific notes after each section. The metrics themselves will change on a weekly basis, and we’ll circle back to some of our favorites every few weeks to see what trends we can identify.

Have something you want me to cover in this space or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

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Expected Statistics – Pitchers

For pitchers this week, we’re going to look at ERA juxtaposed to FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA. ERA (Earned Run Average) is the number you’ll always see next to a pitcher’s name, but we can use these additional metrics to identify pitchers who may be getting lucky or lucky and who may be headed for some positive or negative regression. I’ll spare you the full definition for each one, but just know that these metrics take additional factors into account when quantifying a pitcher’s performance. They each have their own specific formula but tend to focus more on what a pitcher can control (strikeouts, walks, home runs) and metrics like hard contract and fly ball rate as opposed to the actual results, as ERA does.

The below chart is sorted by ERA-xERA but includes ERA on the far left and FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA numbers in the middle with heat mapping turned on. This should be pretty obvious when you start scrolling through, but red is bad and green/blue is good for these numbers.

Note: This table is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!

Notes

• It is not surprising to see Zach Davies at the top of this list. We talked about him in last week's Statcast Review piece about Swing & Take and Run Value. If you go to his Statcast page, you'll see a lot of dark blue in some of the most important categories. In fact, his xwOBA, xERA, xBA, and K% are 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st percentile, respectively. And many of his other metrics aren't far behind. That is about as bad as it gets, and it doesn't seem like there is any positive regression in Davies's future.
• When I started working on this article, Jack Flaherty was someone I really wanted to dive into. But his injury means we won't see him for probably a couple of months. But his expected numbers are interesting compared to his 2.90 ERA, and his xERA of 4.47 being significantly higher than his 3.68 FIP jumped off the page when I was reviewing.
• Dylan Bundy has been bad this season. Anyone who has watched him recently can confirm as much. But a number of his advanced metrics really aren't all that bad. His 5.09 FIP isn't all that encouraging, but all of his other expected numbers are at or below 4.00. He is limiting hard contact and walks, and his chase rate is excellent. Is it possible this is just a bump in the rode and he'll be a replacement-level-or-better starter for the rest of the season? I'm probably not taking the plunge in most standard leagues, but in deeper leagues or ones where I am desperate for pitching, I'm intrigued enough to grab and stash.

I've never been a big Dylan Bundy fan, but he's an intriguing buy-low candidate right now. He might even be FREE since his ownerhip% is down to around 55%. His FIP is still on the high end, but his xFIP, SIERA, xERA, and most of his advanced metrics aren't bad at all 😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/MIWpar1LQK

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 2, 2021

• John Means has been coming back to Earth a bit lately, but that doesn't mean he has been bad. He wasn't going to pitch to a sub-2.00 ERA forever, and his expected numbers indicate that more negative regression is coming. But still, those numbers aren't bad. They just aren't the ELITE level that we have seen from him over the first two months. There is also a decent chance that Means gets dealt to a contender, which would improve his chances for wins down the stretch. But he is in the Top 5 on a list where you don't want to be in the Top 5, with a -1.400 ERA-xERA and -1.770 ERA-FIP. That ERA-FIP number is actually the highest in baseball right now, but consider this: Trevor Bauer is number two. When you have an ERA as low as Means does, you are bound to have some expected stats that are higher. It's more concerning than the actual ERA is only average and the expected numbers are significantly higher. Let's take a look at one of those next...
• Robbie Ray has a 3.81 ERA but a 5.12 FIP. His xFIP and SIERA are actually LOWER than his 3.81 ERA, while his xERA splits the difference eat 4.56. So, what gives? Well, let's take a look at his Statcast page.

The Good

• • K%: 76th percentile
  • BB%: 82nd percentile
  • Whiff%: 86th percentile
  • Chase Rate: 54th percentile
  • Fastball Velocity: 79th percentile

The Bad

• • Avg. Exit Velocity: 8th percentile
  • Max Exit Velocity: 28th percentile
  • Hard Hit%: 7th percentile
  • xwOBA: 43rd percentile
  • xERA: 43rd percentile
  • xBA: 40th percentile
  • xSLG: 22nd percentile
  • Barrel%: 13th percentile

There is more bad than good there, and that's concerning given Ray's track record. Ray has been a great story this season, but it might be time to sell high while you can. I have a few shares of Ray in different formats and assumed when I grabbed him that he would be a short-term streamer. He has been so good that I've kept him, but now I'm taking a step back and trying to move on before it's too late.

Robbie Ray's metrics and expected numbers are all over the place.

🔥 K%: 76th
🔥 BB%: 82nd
🔥 Whiff%: 86th

🥶 Avg. Exit Velocity: 8th
🥶 Max Exit Velocity: 28th
🥶 Hard Hit%: 7th
🥶 xSLG: 22nd
🥶 Barrel%: 13th #WeAreBlueJays pic.twitter.com/cQvMzIbFBm

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 2, 2021

Expected Statistics - Batters

For hitters this week, we're focusing on batting average vs. expected batting average and wOBA vs. expected wOBA. wOBA is a good catch-all statistic based on the idea that not all hits are created equal. Batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) all tell part of the story but don't weigh the different ways that hitters get on base accurately. wOBA combines all of the various hitting metrics into one catch-all metric and weighs them according to their value. If you're interested in learning more, FanGraphs has a ton of information about wOBA here.

xWOBA is just another step into expected or anticipated outcomes based on the contact players are making. It removes defense (and some luck) from the equation so we can get a picture of who might be due for some regression in either direction. The chart below is sorted by wOBA-xwOBA, with the highest (worst) differences sorted to the top. Again, red is bad in this scenario. There are more than 300 batters in this chart across five pages, so feel free to sort the columns are look around using the search feature.

Note: This table is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!

Notes

• Joey Wendle has been a fun streamer, but we all knew this was unsustainable, right? Right?! His xBA and xwOBA both indicate negative regression is on the way, and his .079 wOBA-xwOBA is the highest mark in baseball among more than 300 qualifying hitters. Nearly all of the metrics at the top of his Statcast page are in the 25th percentile or worse, and it isn't like Wendle is a young player who is still emerging. This is a veteran with a track record, and his expected numbers indicate that he is going to turn back into a pumpkin soon.

Joey Wendle has been a fun streamer, but the ride is likely coming to an end soon.

His xBA and xwOBA both indicate negative regression is on the way, and his .079 wOBA-xwOBA is the highest mark in baseball among more than 300 qualifying hitters.#RaysUp pic.twitter.com/mubkZcPRNr

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 2, 2021

• Jared Walsh has cooled off quite a bit, and it's a bummer to see him near the top of this list. But he still has value in all fantasy formats, and I'm holding him everywhere. The power is real, but he was unlikely to bat over .300 for a full season. He's on pace for 30+ home runs with an average of around .260 or so. If I told you before the season that's what you'd be getting from Walsh, you would have signed up for it without hesitation.
• Guillermo Heredia is going to be a popular player on waivers in deeper leagues after the Marcell Ozuna news. But as you can see here, his already low production is headed for some negative regression. Grab him if you are in a deeper league and really just need a warm body, but you're probably better off looking elsewhere for production.
• Don't be worried to see Kris Bryant in the Top 10 here. As with Means above, his actual numbers are so high that his expected numbers almost have to be lower. His expected numbers are still excellent.
• Fantasy analysts keep expecting Randy Arozarena to fade, but he keeps getting hot every time we think the cliff is near. His expected numbers back up those concerns, and a .212 xBA and sub-.300 xwOBA are definitely cause for concern. He is currently batting .330 against fastballs but has a .247 xBA on those pitches. And he doesn't hit breaking or offspeed pitches very well, either: .172 BA and .159 xBA on breaking pitchings and .206 BA and .211 xBA on offspeed pitches. He does hit the ball hard, but his expected numbers all point to negative regression. It is probably time to sell high on Arozarena, but that is easier said than done when you consider his stolen base potential.

That's all for this week, friends. See someone above you'd like to talk more about, or just have a general question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher anytime.

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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.