Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 10 of the Fantasy Baseball Quick Grades series. We have an interesting week ahead of us, with only six teams playing on Monday and only three teams playing seven games in Week 10. Nine teams are only playing five games. So, it’s a lighter week as we head into the Summer. As always, we’ll dive into the numbers and see who grades out as the best options for our Week 10 lineups.
I went over how the grades for this series are calculated in Week 1, and I’ll link to that breakdown every week rather than filling this space with a lengthy explanation every time. If you’re interested in knowing my process or just want to talk baseball, feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher. I reply to Tweets, and my DMs are open. Here’s a link to the Week 1 piece with the full Quick Grades breakdown:
Week 1 Quick Grades (2021 Fantasy Baseball)
Another week, another look at Fernando Tatis Jr. at the top of the Quick Grades rankings. He apparently doesn’t need shoulders or obliques or anything normal humans need in order to be really good at baseball. I’ll reiterate here that, other than massaging the opposing pitchers rankings, no part of these grades are based on my opinions; they’re all based on the formula described in the link above. Tatis just keeps performing like the best player in baseball to the point where he is near the top of the rankings each week regardless of his matchups.
But we could talk about Tatis every week. Jean Segura very nearly dethroned Tatis with a 92.0 grade of his own thanks to a recent surge and some favorable Week 10 matchups. Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna have the lowest matchup grades of anyone in the Top 10, but they’ve been so good that they each cracked the 90.0 mark anyway. Kyle Tucker has stayed hot and is rewarding the patient fantasy managers who stuck with him and resisted the urge to sell. Tommy Pham is heating up and stealing bases over the last couple of weeks. And our old friend, Andrew Benintendi, The Great Bendini himself, jumps back up into the Top 10 thanks to another hot streak.
Now, let’s get to the rest of Week 10 grades and notes.
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Note: This table is three pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Week 10 Hitter Grades
Team Streams
- Only three teams play seven games this week: Red Sox, Marlins, and Royals
- The Red Sox play seven games at Fenway Park this week, and their pitching matchups aren't terrible. The Royals play all seven of their games on the road but don't have any imposing pitching matchups lined up.
- The Reds get six games at home and avoid two of Milwaukee's top three starters before getting Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzatela to end the week.
- The Angels play six games against the likes of Ervin Santana, Kris Bubic, Brad Keller, Merrill Kelly, Caleb Smith, and Jon Duplantier. Justin Upton is still available in more than 80% of leagues and has been hot lately. His 78.43 grade puts him right behind Austin Riley's 78.47, for comparison.
Fades of the Week
- The Pirates play six games this week but get Tony Gonsolin's first start back before facing a gauntlet of Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Brandon Woodruff, and Corbin Burnes.
- The Pirates received a matchups grade of 12.50. The Rangers are the only team with a lower grade, at 12.00. Texas gets Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani at home before going on the road to face Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Tony Gonsolin (in his second start).
Notes
- Jean Segura has stolen four bases over his last five games to go with a five-game hitting streak that includes two multiple-hit performances. Through 41 games, he's batting .320 with 21 runs scored, three home runs, 12 RBI, and six stolen bases.
Over his last five games, Jean Segura is 7-for-20 (.350) with four stolen bases and five runs scored 👀#RingTheBell
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 5, 2021
- Just when you thought Jonathan India was a goner, he comes roaring back. Over his last 65 plate appearances, India has an .836 OPS and .372 wOBA. He's available in 90% of leagues.
Week 10 Pitcher Grades
Below, you'll see a grid of probable starters, their matchups, and their grades. The grade is on a scale of 0-100, and here's what those numbers mean.
These grades assume you are in 10 leagues of varying size and format, with a good mix of shallow, deeper, scoring, and roster/lineup sizes. The score for all of these players corresponds to how many leagues I would start a pitcher in if I had him in every league. So, a pitcher with a score of 100 means I would start him in all 10 leagues. A pitcher with a score of 50 means I would start him in five leagues. Zero, zero leagues. Got it? Great.
Note: The starters below are grouped alphabetically by team and schedule, and the table is two pages to keep the length manageable (you can click to see the second page on the top right).
Notes
- Tony Gonsolin gets a favorable matchup in his first start of the season, but we don't know how many innings we'll get from him. He only threw 60 pitches in his last rehab start and might not be stretched out enough to go long enough to qualify for a win. I typically fade pitchers in their first start coming off the injured list (especially in their first start of the season), but I gave Gonsolin a slight bump because of his projected two-start status.
- I usually want no part of Carlos Martinez. This week, I want very little of CMart. His last start was one of the worst outings of the year (for anyone, not just for him), but he does get two starts this week, with one of them coming against Cleveland. However, that one start currently lines up to be against Shane Bieber. Even when Martinez was pitching well, I was out on him (as were many others). His underlying metrics weren't great, and something just didn't look right when he was out there on the mound. His control was erratic, and it obviously caught up to him. If you really need the innings, roll him out there for two starts this week, and I'll pray for you.
- I didn't think I would be handing out 100s to the likes of Rich Hill in 2021, but here we are. After Hill and Tyler Glasnow, the rest of this Rays staff is kind of difficult to project. The Rays are good, and their pitchers have been pitching well. But most of them have limited strikeout upside and, other than Ryan Yarbrough throwing the first complete game for the Rays in the last five years, rarely go deep into games. Even when they're pitching well, the upside is often capped.
- Earlier this week, I wrote about Robbie Ray as a negative regression and sell-high candidate in my Statcast Review article. This weekend might be the time to trade him at the height of his value because he gets the White Sox and the Red Sox on the road in Week 10. If he can survive both of those starts and look good doing so, I'll be more inclined to buy into Ray for the rest of the season. But there's also a chance he turns back into a pumpkin this week.
Robbie Ray's metrics and expected numbers are all over the place.
🔥 K%: 76th
🔥 BB%: 82nd
🔥 Whiff%: 86th🥶 Avg. Exit Velocity: 8th
🥶 Max Exit Velocity: 28th
🥶 Hard Hit%: 7th
🥶 xSLG: 22nd
🥶 Barrel%: 13th #WeAreBlueJays pic.twitter.com/cQvMzIbFBm— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 2, 2021
- I know Ross Stripling has been pitching better lately. I still don't want any part of him in Fenway Park this week.
- I have Patrick Corbin as a 20 because there are a couple of deeper leagues where I pretty much have to start him. But man, I feel gross about it.
That's it for this week. Again, if you have any questions, feedback, or requests, hit me up on Twitter!
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
