Even though it’s the middle of July and the regular season is roughly only two months away, there are always some player rankings that are a little shocking at this point in the year. Some may ask why Ryan Tannehill is only the QB10 even though he was the third-highest scoring QB since becoming a starter in Week 7 of 2019 and now has Julio Jones. Others might wonder why Noah Fant is the TE8 after a very pedestrian sophomore season where he was used alongside Albert Okwuegbunam, has teammate WR Courtland Sutton coming back from injury to steal targets this year, and may still have inconsistent QB Drew Lock starting under center.
Typically, these surprising evaluations usually adjust throughout the course of the preseason. However, those drafting early can take advantage by identifying which consensus ranks seem odd to them. Our featured experts are here to chat about which players stick out the most in our half-PPR rankings. Read on below to get a good idea of which running backs and wide receivers they may currently be heavily targeting or avoiding.
Mock draft vs. experts with our free Draft Simulator 
Q1. Which RB has the most surprising ranking in our half-PPR consensus rankings and why?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC): Consensus Rank – RB15
“There seems to be plenty of broken hearts over Edwards-Helaire after he did not live up to expectations his rookie season. He is currently sitting at RB15 on a Chiefs team that was first in total offense and sixth in scoring offense (that’s not changing). CEH was off to a strong start as the RB11 with over 600 all-purpose yards in the first six weeks of the season. The Chiefs brought in plenty of new offensive linemen to bolster the line, which seems to be an underrated perk for the sophomore back this offseason. I’d expect progression in touchdowns and targets this year, especially with the third passing option up for grabs in 2021. CEH is being downplayed and should be considered more of an RB1 than a mid-RB2 right now.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Aaron Jones (GB): Consensus Rank – RB9
“We need to talk about Jones ranked as the ECR RB9 after consecutive top-five finishes at the position. There is uncertainty with the Aaron Rodgers situation, however, if you believe he will not return to Wisconsin, then Jones as the RB9 is too high. However, if you believe he returns (which is how things are trending) then RB9 is way too low. Over the last two years, Jones has demonstrated the upside and consistency needed to be a league-winning RB1, and now the situation has arguably gotten better. The Packers have been top eight in targets to the running back position over the last two years. With the departure of Jamaal Williams and the uncertain receiving abilities of A.J. Dillon, Jones will soak up the majority of the vacated targets. There is no reason Jones should be ranked outside of the top five backs and taken behind the relatively unproven Jonathan Taylor or one-dimensional usage of Nick Chubb in 2021.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Josh Jacobs (LV): Consensus Rank – RB21
“The only running backs with more carries than Jacobs last season were Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. It’s not like he’s losing any passing game work to Kenyan Drake, because he never had it to begin with. Jacobs still projects to get the majority of the carries and the goal line work for the Raiders, who were a top-10 scoring offense last season. It feels odd to see a former first-round pick with that profile in the prime of his career outside of the top-20 running backs in ECR.”
– Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)
David Montgomery (CHI): Consensus Rank – RB19
“Montgomery finished as the RB4 in half PPR in 2020. I do realize the stretch run matchups were favorable, Tarik Cohen is healthy, and Darrel Williams is on the roster. However, Montgomery is the RB19 in ECR. That’s way too low. He showed he can handle a three-down workload and will benefit from the automatic QB upgrade coming his way in 2021 in Justin Fields. It’s one thing to understand his limitations, it’s another to discount his performance.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Najee Harris (PIT): Consensus Rank – RB14
“The ECR just isn’t feeling it for Harris. The late July ADP on Harris barely moves the needle as well. So why is Harris ranked so cautiously without many ticket sales for the hype train? The Steelers’ best seasons in the past 20 years include a bell-cow running back. Jerome Bettis and Le’Veon Bell are the top examples. Ben Roethlisberger more than ever needs a strong compliment from the backfield offense. The Steelers drafted Harris in the first round. This guy is getting work and plenty of it in 2021. He is among the safest early-round reach targets until fantasy catches up.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)
Michael Carter (NYJ): Consensus Rank – RB37
“While I don’t exactly expect the Jets to be a top-15 scoring offense in 2021, Carter all the way down at RB37 seems a bit egregious. Tevin Coleman and La’Mical Perine are the only RBs standing in the way of him seeing a significant workload in an RB-friendly scheme with a solid offensive line in front of him. With his projected work on the ground — plus the value he brings as a receiver — Carter could easily crack the top-24 this season. We might have to wait just a few weeks for him to assume the starting role, but I have him much higher than ECR right now.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Q2. Which WR has the most surprising ranking in our half-PPR consensus rankings and why?
Diontae Johnson (PIT): Consensus Rank – WR21
Chase Claypool (PIT): Consensus Rank – WR30
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT): Consensus Rank – WR32
“It’s not one receiver I am surprised about, it’s three. The Pittsburgh Steelers currently have all three receivers ranked in the top 32, which is a little ambitious given the question marks around the team. Last year, two teams (Carolina and Pittsburgh) managed to have three receivers in the top 32 despite passing for less than 4,000 yards. However, between 2015 and 2019, only one team managed to produce three top-32 options; that team was the Saints in 2016 when Drew Brees passed for over 4,800 yards. With a shut-down defense and new first-round running back, last season seems like an anomaly for the Steelers. Plus, given Ben Roethlisberger’s injury history, age, immobility, and one of the worst projected offensive lines in 2021, it’s unlikely he will support three top-32 WRs and a top-15 RB (according to ECR). I don’t mind taking a shot at the volume of Najee Harris or the short targets of Diontae Johnson. However, if the experts are projecting the ball to be spread around I’m definitely not thrilled about either.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
“With the moves the Steelers have made this offseason, it’s hard to see how all three Steelers WRs finish as top-30 options. The pass attempts are going to be cut down dramatically and I wouldn’t be shocked to see more two-TE sets here in Pittsburgh after the selection of Pat Freiermuth in the second round. This takes the slot receiver off the field, which is clearly JuJu Smith-Schuster in this offense. The volume won’t be the same as in previous seasons and he’s struggled with efficiency in recent years. Even at WR32 in ECR, this still feels incredibly high for Smith-Schuster in 2021.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Michael Pittman (IND): Consensus Rank – WR49
“Pittman sitting down at WR49 is a major shocker after flashing his rookie season. Pittman should be viewed as more of a WR3 right now than the WR5 range he is currently sitting at. He gets a clear upgrade at QB in Carson Wentz, who has the deep ball that Phillip Rivers at the end just never had. Pittman is a big-bodied receiver who can play outside or play big inside to give Wentz a reliable target across the middle. He had over 500 yards as a rookie and half of his yards were YAC, which shows what he can do with the ball in his hands. Just go back and watch his playoff game. Pittman deserves more as we head into 2021.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): Consensus Rank – WR14
“Lamb is ranked above some heavy hitters in the ECR. He had a great rookie season and has a tremendous ceiling with a healthy Dak Prescott, but he could also be the third-best non-QB fantasy option on his own team behind Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper. Even Michael Gallup saw just six fewer targets than Lamb last season. There are more dependable wideouts that I’d expect to see ranked ahead of him.”
– Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)
Robert Woods (LAC): Consensus Rank – WR17
“Woods is a player of topical fantasy discussion with the trade for Matthew Stafford. The quarterback upgrade, on the face of it, appears self-evident. That said, translating this into a production enhancement for Woods stretches the notion a bit beyond the curve. What really counts for the Rams to at least bring the averages up to par for Woods, and Stafford for that matter, hinges on the offensive line and pass protection. For this reason, I would advise keeping reasonable stock in Woods at a medium target temperature.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)
Tee Higgins (CIN): Consensus Rank – WR27
“Higgins at WR27 is a tremendous value. Not many WR3s offer WR1 upside. Sure, Ja’Marr Chase is a tremendous prospect, but he’s still a rookie and is coming off a year where he sat out a full season. Higgins was incredibly consistent before Joe Burrow‘s knee injury. The offseason buzz on Higgins’ work ethic has been glowing. As much as we should be excited about the prospect Chase is, Higgins is being undervalued.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Thank you to the experts for giving us their most surprising rankings. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
