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Expert Consensus Rantings: End The CEH Hate!


 
SHAME! Shame on us all! We’ve depressed the market for Clyde Edwards-Helaire by saying he’s “difficult to predict” and “coming off a tough season.” A POX UPON ALL OUR HOUSES! Oh great! Wonderful! Now I’m so mad that I cursing in Shakespearean. I implore you to listen to reason. Do it for the sake of your 2021 fantasy football season, and also because I’ve been screaming about CEH all week and my neck veins are about to pop faster than marshmallow peeps in a microwave. Anyway, Clyde is currently the RB15 in .5 PPR Leagues, based on his Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR). His ceiling, however, is much higher. Let’s end this injustice now.

In 2020, CEH finished as the RB22 in .5 PPR Leagues, but he only played in 13 games. So let’s all just chill! The man got hurt! It happens! Here are his stats over his 13 games:

RUSHING: 181 Att, 803 Yds, 4.4 Y/A, 4 TDs.
RECEIVING: 54 Tgt, 36 Rec, 297 Yds, 1 TD.

His per-game average landed him in the RB2 range. His 5 total TDs landed him in the oh-no-what-have-I-done-to-my-fantasy-team range, but it should be a consolation that he will almost assuredly improve upon that finish in 2021. His projections this year seem to diverge into two different scenarios. The first: he’s an RB2 who was overhyped last year and will stay an RB2. The second: he’s an ascendant player with the opportunity to outproduce his ECR and become the legend he was meant to be.

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FIRST SCENARIO: THE OVERHYPED RB2

Ahead of the 2020 season, Clyde was ranked in the top 10 RBs, usually around RB7. And, in reality, he was effective his rookie season. He was by no means dominant, and he finished far below his projected value. And now everyone is deciding to gang up this year and pretend like he was the worst player ever last year. Grow up! AWAY, YOU STARVELLING, YOU BULL’S PIZZLE, YOU STOCKFISH! Ah. Sorry, I just went Shakespearean again.

If CEH had played in all 16 games, maintaining his average points scored, he would have snuck into the top 12 RBs. So what you got from him last year was a high-end RB2 who was consistent when given opportunities and who disappointed due to injury. The big question is: is that his ceiling? It’s not, but you do you, Boo-Boo.

SECOND SCENARIO: THE RB1 RISING

Initially, Clyde showcased the kind of player he can be. In his first six games with the Chiefs, CEH was not simply promising, he was dreamier than a pile of delicious caramel cashew custard. OH OKAY SO NOW YOU FEEL BAD FOR HATING ON CLYDE?! NOW THAT I COMPARE HIM TO A DELECTABLE DESSERT?! Typical. 

Had he maintained that level of production throughout the 16-game season, CEH would have finished as the RB6 in 2020. He was on pace for 285 carries, 1,347 yards, and 3 TDs, along with 56 receptions on 83 targets for 472 receiving yards. The TDs are low, but if you compare those numbers to his 2021 projections, it becomes clear that we are CRIMINALLY undervaluing CEH. His value is closer to his floor than his ceiling, so drafting him presents a potential bargain. Here are his 2021 projections, which I believe are too low:

RUSHING: 218.6 Att, 984.4 Yds, 6.9 TDs.
RECEIVING: 48.8 Rec, 378.5 Yds, 2.1 TDs.

Consider this, you bummersauce-loving bros: the O-line in Kansas City is revamped. It was good last year, but it should be better this year. Pro Football Focus has upgraded the Chiefs Offensive Line ranking from 11th (in 2020) to 7th (in 2021). See? Better. Sheesh, all you had to do was trust me—and advanced analytics.

CEH has a season under his belt and should have less competition for touches this year. We’re pretending like things are somehow WORSE for Clyde, but his upside is in an elite range. Compare his 2021 projections to last season’s RB leaders. In 2020, only 10 RBs had more than 200 carries. Just five of those 10 had more than 40 receptions. Here they are, along with their season finishes in .5 PPR Leagues: James Robinson (RB7), Dalvin Cook (RB3), Aaron Jones (RB5), Ezekiel Elliott (RB11) and David Montgomery (RB4).

The lesson is simple: STOP HATING! If he lives up to his modest projections, Clyde is likely to finish as a top 10 RB. If he beats his projections (which feels more likely), he’ll be the certifiable steal of the season. It’s pointless to bet against this guy, you hate-sauce-loving rapscallions! Cut it out! Can’t you see the man just wants to ball out on the league’s best offense?!

UPSIDE COMPARISON: CEH OR Najee Harris?

Since you’ve read this far, I want to present a quick comparison that shows how rankings sometimes fail to show the whole picture. Sometimes, rankings are based not upon actual analysis, but on bloated hopes and hurt feelings from the previous season.

Let’s consider Najee Harris. Harris is basically the 2021 version of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’s a hyped-up rookie and the presumed lead back on a historic franchise. While CEH is being projected near his floor, Najee is being projected at his ceiling: that would be 254 carries, 47 catches, and more yards and touchdowns than his second-year counterpart. But… why?

I understand that Najee is big and strong and blah blah blah he’ll get one million carries. NEWSFLASH! The Steelers O-line got worse this offseason, and efficiency does matter. Just ask J.K. Dobbins. Pro Football Focus ranked the Steelers as the 31st ranked run-blocking unit in 2020, and the three “best” linemen from last season are no longer with the team. So… ahem… that’s not good.

Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger is another year older and a year removed from Tommy John surgery. In 2020, Big Ben averaged a career low in Y/A passing. He no longer scares defensive coordinators. So it’s very possible that defenses prioritize stopping Najee over stopping the passing game. CEH won’t have that issue. Defenses will ALWAYS scheme to stop Patrick Mahomes, leaving CEH with lighter defensive fronts. Najee may get more carries, yes, but CEH’s carries will likely be more valuable.

My dad always says: “In order to know someone, get to know the people around them.” That’s good advice for fantasy football. You should employ that philosophy when making toss-up decisions, like choosing between CEH and Najee Harris. As the RB for an Andy Reid/Mahomes offense, I feel confident taking CEH as often as possible. RB15 is too low for this man. He’s a league-winner who has more upside than others in his draft range. As Shakespeare would say, he’s a bonny burly-boned bawcock. Or something like that. Anyway, STOP HATING AND GET THIS MAN ON YOUR ROSTER!

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Timothy Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Timothy, check out his archive or follow him @timmy_the_metz.

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