Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article for Week 14 (7/5-7/11). I will be covering some of the hottest and coldest players in baseball over the last week. This weekly column aims to provide insight into the featured players’ success and/or struggles. We’ll discover if their recent performances have any staying power or if it was just a flash in the pan.

Well, we made it to the All-Star break! Players, coaches, and die-hard fantasy baseball managers such as yourself have earned a few days off. But if you can’t get enough of this stuff, like yours truly, then you’re in the right place. This is the time when the casual fantasy baseball player starts to check out and turn their attention towards football, but the competitive manager (like you!) knows that this is crunch time. It’s important to pay attention to which players are “rising” and which ones are “falling” so we know who to target and who to avoid in any potential trades before the upcoming deadline.

I try my best to focus on some lesser-known players or fringe roster-worthy guys that have been flying under the radar. To avoid redundancy, I won’t always be covering superstars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Ohtani, and Fernando Tatis Jr. They’re all amazing players. As much as I’d like to write about them every week, they’re rostered in 100% of leagues, and their awesomeness is well documented across the fantasy baseball landscape. Anyway, with all of that out of the way, let’s get into it.

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Risers

Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA)
Gilbert received a ton of hype leading up to his call-up with the Mariners back in mid-May, but that quickly fizzled out after his underwhelming debut. But despite his perceived struggles, he’s never given up more than four earned runs in a start and has surrendered just 12 earned runs over the last eight (42 innings). We sometimes forget that younger players, especially pitchers, can take some time to develop once they get to the majors. Gilbert just 24-years-old and still has a lot to work on, but the upside is very real.

Logan Gilbert is the first @Mariners starter to go 7+ IP allowing 1 H or fewer and 0 BB since King Felix’s perfect game in 2012. pic.twitter.com/dFg34K2k2R

– MLB Stats (@MLBStats) July 8, 2021

Jameson Taillon (SP – NYY)
Taillon has largely been an afterthought in fantasy baseball due to his inconsistency. He had shown some positive signs here and there but could rarely string together 2-3 good outings in a row. Well, he may be on the right track after his tw0-start performance last week. In two turns against the Mariners (7/6) and the Astros (7/11), Taillon produced a 2.08 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 13:3 K/BB ratio over 13 innings. He punched out nine in his win against Seattle and has produced three quality starts over his last four games. Even though it was just two starts, it’s starting to feel like he’s finally turned a corner.

Overall, he has a lackluster 4-4 record, 4.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 86:24 K/BB ratio across 82 2/3 innings (17 starts). This is actually the first time his ERA has been under 5.00 since his first start of the year. In spite of his struggles to prevent runs, he’s posting 9.4 K/9 with a 24.9% Strikeout Rate and 26.4% Whiff Rate, which are all career bests. His 82 2/3 innings are the most he’s thrown since 2018, so his stamina could be something to monitor moving forward, but if you’re in need of starting pitching help and who isn’t, he’s rostered in just 36% of Yahoo! leagues.

Franmil Reyes (OF – CLE)
Over the first 40 games of the season, Reyes swatted nine doubles, two triples, and 11 home runs while slugging .576. But he hit the injured list back on May 23 with an oblique injury that ended up keeping him sidelined for nearly six weeks. He was activated from the IL back on July 2 and has been crushing the ball ever since. Over his last seven games, he’s slashing .345/.387/.690 with three home runs and nine RBI. He homered in three straight games, which included a walk-off three-run shot against the Kansas City Royals on July 8 that measured 435 feet. I think it’s safe to say that the oblique issue is behind him.

Overall, the 26-year-old slugger is slashing .272/.328/.595 with 14 home runs, 38 RBI, and two stolen bases across 173 at-bats. He’s posting career-highs in Barrel Rate (20.5%), Hard Hit Rate (52.1%), xSLG (.565), and Max Exit Velocity (114.9 mph). His Barrel Rate also ranks in the 99th percentile in all of baseball. He’s in line for a monster second half now that he’s healthy. Enjoy the show.

A.J. Pollock (OF – LAD)
Pollock has been red hot at the dish since the calendar flipped to July, slashing .364/.447/1.000 with three doubles, six home runs, and eight RBI over 10 games. Over the last seven days, he hit .391 with a 1.505 OPS and four solo home runs, three of which came against his former team, the Diamondbacks. He hit two of the Dodgers’ eight dingers in a 22-1 blowout over Arizona on Saturday. He’s now rocking a .271/.332/.518 batting line to go along with 12 home runs, 33 RBI, and two stolen bases over 199 at-bats on the year.

The power surge has been supported by a 48.6% Hard Hit Rate and 11.6% Barrel Rate, which are both career bests. He is posting a 23% Strikeout Rate, which is the worst mark of his career, but his 7.5% Walk Rate is his highest since 2017. He appears to be making a concerted effort to hit for more power, and it seems to have paid off so far as he’s on pace to surpass his career-high of 21 home runs. Durability has always been the concern for Pollock, he missed over half of May with a hamstring strain, but he can be a fantasy asset when he’s healthy and locked into the loaded Dodgers lineup.

Fallers

Caleb Smith (SP – ARI)
Prior to his previous two starts, Smith had been a small bright spot for the struggling D-Backs this season. He posted a solid 3.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 75:33 K/BB ratio over his first 64 1/3 innings (25 appearances, seven starts). He had only allowed seven home runs over those 64-plus innings as well. But over his last two starts (seven innings), he surrendered a whopping 14 runs, including five homers. He coughed up five runs over six innings in a loss to the Giants back on July 4, but the real disaster came on Saturday against the Dodgers. Smith allowed nine runs on six hits with three walks and three strikeouts over one-plus inning while serving up three home runs, including a grand slam to Justin Turner. The D-Backs would go on to lose by a record-breaking score of 22-1.

This was certainly not how Smith wanted his first half of the season to end. His last two outings raised his season ERA to 4.54 to go along with a 1.360 WHIP and 81:37 K/BB ratio over 71 1/3 innings. He can be useful in a streaming capacity in the right matchup, but he doesn’t miss bats like he used to. He’s sporting a career-low 25.7% Whiff Rate, and his 11.7% Walk Rate is the worst it’s ever been. He still could produce some deep-league streaming value in the second half, but it’ll be hard for fantasy managers to forget his last outing. Woof.

Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers (15) pic.twitter.com/1dZ8D5ERnB

– MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 11, 2021

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