In 2019, they were Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs. In 2020, they were Jonathan Taylor and Antonio Gibson. In 2021, the impact rookie running backs will be…? Until next season is officially in the books, we can’t say for sure who they will be, but we can certainly make some educated guesses. Based on talent and opportunity, I’ve identified seven rookie running backs who could make a clear fantasy impact in 2021. Here they are:
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Najee Harris (PIT)
There’s no RB who will make quite the same impact as Harris in 2021. Drafted with the 24th pick in the First Round, Harris was brought in to help bolster the Steelers’ dreadful rushing game. Pittsburgh finished last season with the fifth-fewest carries in the NFL (373) and the least amount of rushing yards (1,351) and yards per carry (3.6). That equates to 84.4 rushing yards per contest. On the flip side, Pittsburgh led the NFL with 656 passing attempts.
That imbalance in the offensive game plan led Pittsburgh to collapse late in the season as aging veteran Ben Roethlisberger wore down. The Steelers invested so much draft capital into Harris so that they could immediately improve the run game and in turn, take some pressure off Big Ben. The 6’1, 232 lb. Harris rolled through his final two years at Alabama, racking up over 3,400 scrimmage yards and 50 total touchdowns in that span. He’ll look to bring that elite production to an organization desperate for a rejuvenated run game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Harris finish as a top-10 back in his inaugural campaign.
Javonte Williams (DEN)
Will there be a timeshare in the Mile High City this season, or will Williams take the job from Melvin Gordon outright? For now, it looks like Gordon and Williams will co-exist peacefully, but a changing of the guard could certainly occur as the season goes on. In fact, one beat reporter noted that Williams has a chance to be the Broncos’ Week 1 starter. Gordon is in the final year of his 2-year, $16M deal with Denver, and while it’s highly unlikely his role is diminished significantly, there’s reason to believe Williams could be the more productive back in 2021.
Williams impressed in his final season with North Carolina, scoring 22 total touchdowns and putting his full range of versatility on display thanks to a 25/305/3 receiving line to go with 1,140 rushing yards and 19 rushing scores. He can be a three-down back in the NFL, which only improves his case to be an immediate-impact type of guy. The Broncos traded up in the second round to grab him, and Phillip Lindsay is now a member of the Texans. There’s a clear hole to fill, and Williams should be the guy to fill it.
Trey Sermon (SF)
Jeff Wilson is slated to start the year on the PUP list, Raheem Mostert is coming off yet another significant injury, and the Niners used third-round draft capital to get Sermon. He’s ready to make an impact right away. Despite some impressive individual efforts from the platoon of Mostert, Wilson, and the now-departed Jerick McKinnon, the Niners only mustered 118.1 rushing yards per game in 2020, 15th in the NFL. With constant turnover and frequent injuries in the running back room, Sermon should be staring down a significant role right out of the gate. Currently listed as the No. 2 running back on the 49ers’ depth chart, Sermon is one Mostert injury away from a starting gig for a team that would love to pound the rock early and often.
Michael Carter (NYJ)
I’ve already mentioned Javonte Williams, but this wouldn’t be complete without his Tar Heels teammate. With Tevin Coleman as his biggest obstacle to a starting job, Carter should have no problem securing the lead role in this offense sooner than later. The Jets’ depth chart features some uninspiring names among the running backs in Ty Johnson, Lamical Perine, and Coleman, and Carter is arguably the most talented of the group. Throughout his four years at North Carolina, Carter showed that he’s a capable runner and receiver and can legitimately be a three-down back in the NFL. New York’s offense got some major upgrades through free agency and the draft in the forms of QB Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis, and offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. A better offensive line is an instant plus for Carter, and a better offense means more time on the field and more positive gamescripts.
Travis Etienne (JAX)
How impactful can Etienne be in his rookie season with the Jags? He certainly wasn’t drafted to sit around on the bench. Though Jacksonville found success with James Robinson in 2020, the team spent a first-round pick on Etienne to come in and contribute right away. Highly effective as a runner at Clemson, Etienne excelled even more as a receiver. In his final two seasons with the Tigers, Etienne grabbed 85 receptions for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns. Even with James Robinson and newly-signed Carlos Hyde on the roster to take away rushing opportunities, Etienne could find success right away as the team’s primary receiving back.
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
Despite opting out of his final year at Memphis, Gainwell comes into the NFL as a back who could contribute right away. Miles Sanders is the Eagles’ RB1, but beyond him, Gainwell’s competition is Boston Scott and Kerryon Johnson. He has the skills to surpass them on the depth chart, particularly due to his receiving prowess. In his only full season of action with the Tigers in 2019, Gainwell went 51/610/3 as a receiver en route to piling up over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns. He could excel as a change-of-pace back behind Sanders if given the opportunity.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
After a monstrous 2019 that saw Hubbard rumble for over 2,000 rushing yards, he appeared in just seven games in 2020 to little fanfare. Still the upside is there for him to be a significant contributor if given the touches. Christian McCaffrey played in just three games last season due to a high-ankle sprain early in the season and a later shoulder injury. Will he be 100% in 2021? Will he be given an enormous workload right out of the gate? That remains to be seen, but Hubbard could certainly provide value if used to spell McCaffrey and even more value if McCaffrey is forced to miss more time.
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Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.
