2020’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
If you were to compare fantasy expert accuracy competitions to PGA Tour events, the 2020 draft version would almost certainly be categorized as a major championship – at least, from a difficulty standpoint.
The uncertainty of the 2020 NFL season – and which players would even participate – gave our rankings competition an entirely different complexion.
Success in fantasy drafts starts with a good set of rankings. We had 191 experts qualify for our 2020 draft accuracy competition by submitting rankings at QB, RB, WR and TE. You can find the details on how we assess the accuracy of rankings in our full methodology. The short version is this: For each expert, we judge how closely they ranked each player to his actual final rank in terms of season-total fantasy points. We limit this to a pool of fantasy-relevant players, so while each player performance is weighted, the positions with more relevant players (WR and RB) have a bigger impact than those with fewer (QB and TE). While experts submit rankings in all three scoring categories (Standard, PPR and Half PPR), we used Half PPR rankings for this analysis.
Top 10 Draft Experts in 2020
- Yahoo! Sports fantasy guru Matt Harmon was the best of the bunch in 2020, fueled by incredible showings at the two most important positions in fantasy. He finished atop the pecking order in running back prognostication while placing third at the wide receiver position. Being higher on the consensus on Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and David Montgomery made the difference for Harmon at RB, while Tyler Lockett (ranked 12th, finished 13th) was his most notable WR call vs. the consensus (ranked 21st).
- Jared Smola of Draft Sharks, an accuracy leader mainstay, recorded a sensational second-place finish on the strength of fourth-place showings in both the RB and WR categories. Being four spots higher than the consensus (26th vs. 30th) on Antonio Gibson helped, as did having Leonard Fournette ranked 34th compared with the ECR at 24th (he finished 37th). Smola has a reputation as a running back whisperer after leading all experts in in-season RB accuracy.
- Scott Smith of RotoViz rounds out the top three in 2020 draft accuracy, thanks in large part to a fourth-place showing in the quarterback department. Smith separated himself from the majority of the pack in that regard by being six spots higher than the consensus on Teddy Bridgewater (ranked 20th, finished 17th) and seven spots lower on Daniel Jones (ranked 22nd, finished 24th).
- 2020 in-season accuracy champion Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) added yet another top-10 showing to his overflowing trophy case, placing eighth in 2020 draft accuracy. Fitzmaurice was strongest in the tight end department, placing third – a ranking aided significantly by placing T.J. Hockenson eighth compared with the consensus at 14th (he finished third overall).
- Colts.com writer Jake Arthur was the king of the quarterbacks for the 2020 draft season, primarily by being five spots higher than the ECR on Aaron Rodgers. David Zach of FantasyPros was the most accurate WR draft expert of 2020 thanks largely to having ranked Justin Jefferson at 35 compared with the experts at 60, while Smitty of SleeperU had the top tight end score after being higher than his peers on T.J. Hockenson and lower on Hunter Henry.
- Even though not every expert ranks kickers, D/STs or IDP, we tracked those as well. Jorge B. Edwards of Fantasy in Frames was the 2020 draft champion at kicker after being well ahead of the curve on Tyler Bass and Rodrigo Blankenship, while Nick Zylak of Fantasy Football Advice was the top D/ST prognosticator, highlighted by ranking the New England Patriots ninth (they finished 10th) compared with the ECR at 5.
- Last but certainly not least, Ryan Sitzmann of The IDP Guru held off a stiff challenge from Andy Spiteri of Razzball to claim IDP draft ranking honors. The difference maker: Sitzmann’s No. 1 ranking in DB accuracy, led by strong calls vs. the ECR on Khari Willis and Carlton Davis, among others.
We know who was the most accurate for 2020, but will that really help with 2021 drafts? If just one year of good rankings doesn’t give you the confidence to listen to an expert the next year, we’ve got you covered. FantasyPros has been tracking expert accuracy since 2010, and our current methodology has been in place since 2015. This allows us to identify which experts have the consistency to stay accurate year-over-year. We use a rolling 3-year window to identify the experts with the best long-term accuracy. This is who you should have the most confidence in going forward.
You can see the full list here of all 91 experts who qualified for the multi-year accuracy competition, including their 3-year ranks at each individual position. Congratulations is also due to the top IDP expert for 2018-2020, The IDP Guru Ryan Sitzmann.