The quarterback position is as deep as ever. Each year you can find guys capable of putting solid numbers each week in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts. But in the evaluation process of looking for quarterbacks that could be diamonds in the rough, inevitably, you will find some quarterbacks that are overvalued and at their peak cost. Today’s article will try to pinpoint some of these quarterbacks that are overvalued at their current draft price, so you can adjust your draft strategy accordingly.
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Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
ECR: QB2, ADP: 28th overall
I want to start by clarifying I’m not telling you to avoid Josh Allen completely and put him on your do not draft list – he is still a set-and-forget fantasy quarterback. But given how deep the quarterback position is, I’m not sure he provides enough of a positional advantage at his current rank/draft cost to justify taking him so early.
*Dak Prescott only played in 5 games in 2020.
**Jalen Hurts only started 4 games (weeks 14-17). In those games, he averaged 23.8 fantasy PPG.
Take a look at the table above. While he was a top quarterback in terms of fantasy PPG last year, there were quite a few other quarterbacks in the top 10 (ECR) that were right on his tail last year. And when you include the 2019 numbers, you have to wonder if there really is much of an advantage to drafting Josh Allen over guys like Lamar Jackson (QB - BAL), Dak Prescott (QB - DAL), or Russell Wilson (QB - SEA) since they weren't far behind Allen in 2020 and actually outperformed him in 2019. You could argue that his ridiculous improvement in accuracy - the greatest two-year improvement in NFL history, the 25th best single-season completion percentage in NFL history, and a season that made him just the 4th quarterback in the past 20 years to increase his completion percentage at least 10 percentage points from one season to the next is enough reason to make him the second QB off the board. And there is no doubt that he improved his game, but it seems more likely that his passing numbers dip a bit rather than him building upon his 2020 passing numbers, given he still had the 2nd most dangerous plays (44) and the 8th most interceptable passes (24) last season. Josh Allen is an excellent quarterback, but it is not a good idea to pay up for him at his current ADP when his draft stock is at an all-time high when you could play the waiting game and get a guy like Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, or Russell Wilson for a much lower price.
Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
ECR: QB8, ADP: 54th overall
Aaron Rodgers is probably the most common pick you'll see in any 'Quarterbacks To Avoid' articles this offseason, given his issues with the Green Bay Packers' front office. But even if there was no controversy surrounding Rodgers and the Packers, putting up numbers close to his 2020 MVP campaign would be a tall task for 2021. For starters, Aaron Rodgers threw a touchdown pass on 9.1% of his passes (48 passing touchdowns) which was the highest single-season rate of his career. Given he has a career 6.3 TD% rate and was throwing a touchdown on less than 5% of his passing attempts in both 2018 (4.2%) and 2019 (4.6%), there is likely some regression to the mean incoming for Rodgers - especially since he may not have as much time to throw with the Packers letting offensive linemen Rick Wagner and Corey Linsley go this offseason.
Besides concerns of a potential efficiency drop in 2021, we also have to be concerned about the amount of passing volume Rodgers will get compared to the other top quarterbacks in fantasy leagues. In 2020, the Packers attempted just 526 passes all season which was below the 2020 league average of 563.06 passing attempts per game. Since Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has a bit of a track record of being involved in more low-volume passing attacks, the team likely takes a more balanced run-pass approach once again in 2021.
In LaFleur's offense, it doesn't seem likely that Rodgers will get a ridiculous amount of volume (pass attempts), so his efficiency is even more important for his fantasy prospects than it would be for other quarterback options. Because of this, even if he plays, it will be difficult for him to outperform any of the quarterbacks going ahead of him and maybe even a few going behind him in drafts.
Tom Brady (QB - TB)
ECR: QB9, ADP: 76th overall
Tom Brady could easily make me look like an idiot for including him on this list based on the fact that he's built a career off of proving people wrong, but he's going off the board much closer to his ceiling than to his floor in fantasy leagues right now. At the forefront, there's the age concern with Brady. While Tom Brady just had a season where he threw for 4633 yards, scored 43 touchdowns (40 passing, 3 running), and won his seventh Super Bowl at the age of 43, he is going to be 44 years old at the start of next season, so you have to consider the genuine possibility that this is the year Brady finally falls off - especially since Tom Brady had knee surgery after the Super Bowl that he described as 'pretty serious.' Besides age, Brady has a big concern that he has no rushing upside. Over the course of his entire career (301 regular-season games), Tom Brady has carried the ball 636 times for 1043 rushing yards and 25 rushing touchdowns. He hasn't cracked 65 rushing yards in a season since 2011 and had just six rushing yards all of last year. In the modern game of football, rushing upside has almost become a must-have for fantasy quarterbacks to finish in the top five - and Brady doesn't have it. There is a lot more downside than upside with Brady this year, and for that reason, you should avoid him at his current ADP.
Matt Ryan (QB - ATL)
ECR: QB15, ADP: 120th overall
Matt Ryan has been pretty consistent over the course of his career, so why is he on this list at his QB15 price? Well, there are a few reasons. For starters, Matt Ryan lost his favorite weapon, Julio Jones (WR - TEN), this offseason as the Atlanta Falcons traded him to the Tennessee Titans. Considering Matt Ryan has averaged 260.08 passing yards, 1.56 passing touchdowns, and one interception per game in the 25 games without Julio Jones in his career, this could be catastrophic to his fantasy value even with the team drafting Kyle Pitts (TE - ATL) 4th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Matt Ryan is not the best investment at his current price because he lacks rushing upside and hasn't gone over 150 rushing yards in a season in his 13-year career. Given the influx of quality rushing fantasy quarterbacks in recent years, it's becoming more important each year to draft a quarterback that can bring you some production on the ground - and Ryan ain't it.
The final reason I'm concerned about drafting Matt Ryan in fantasy this year is that there's a good chance his passing volume will drop a bit with the offensive play-caller change from former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to the Falcons new head coach Arthur Smith.
Now, will Arthur Smith only have his team throw the ball 30 times per game in Atlanta with all of their receiving weapons and mediocre (not Derrick Henry (RB - TEN)) running backs? Of course not! But based on Smith's desire for a balanced attack, it is likely that the team won't be throwing the ball nearly 40 times per game again and settles down closer to the league average of 35.19 passing attempts per game. Given that Matt Ryan was not super efficient on a team that threw 39.25 times per game in 2020, a hit to his passing volume could be rough for his fantasy outlook and make it tough for him to hit his ceiling in 2021.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
ECR: QB19, ADP: 139th overall
I'm really not sure how Ben Roethlisberger's ADP is still this high. He's got a terrible offensive line, limiting his ability to throw downfield (averaged just 6.3 passing yards per attempt in 2020). The Steelers have indicated that they want to run the ball more by firing former offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner, hiring Matt Canada to be the new offensive coordinator, and drafting Najee Harris (RB - PIT) in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Roethlisberger is also very immobile at this stage of his career and has never brought much rushing production to the table - last year, he had just 11 rushing yards, and over the course of his career, he's averaged 2.12 carries for 5.87 rushing yards and 0.08 rushing touchdowns per game. And to top it off, his injuries seem to be catching up to him now that he's 39 years old. There isn't any real upside here. From a fantasy perspective, you are better off taking a shot on guys like Trey Lance (QB - SF), Jameis Winston (QB - NO), Tua Tagovailoa (QB - MIA), or Daniel Jones (QB - NYG) late who have much higher fantasy upside for 2021.
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