Ah, yes, the yearly deep dive into the question that plagues anyone who doesn’t nab a top-3 TE in the first couple rounds: which late-round TEs have the best chance of vastly outproducing their ADP? If you’re one of the managers that aren’t able to grab Kelce, Kittle, or Waller, don’t sweat it. Stick to your rankings and then take a couple of shots on TE later in the draft. This year is filled with plenty of uncertainty, so hidden gems may abound. Here are my favorite TE2s (tight ends outside the top-12) to go nuclear and land in the Top-5 overall.
Rankings based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings for half-PPR scoring.
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Jonnu Smith (NE): TE14
In 2020, while on the Tennessee Derrick Henrys–I mean, Titans, Jonnu finished as the TE10 (in .5PPR leagues). His previous three seasons were TE45, TE32, and TE19. Notice the trend? His success last year was enough to earn him a delicious new contract with the New England Sleeveless Hoodies–I mean, Patriots. Unfortunately, the Patriots also added Hunter Henry (TE – NE) in the offseason. It’s not really a surprise, though. There was once a time in Tom Brady’s (QB-TB) Patriots’ career when things were less than optimal on the offense. Then they drafted Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB). It changed the way we think of TEs. They’re more than blockers and one team CAN support two fantasy-relevant TEs. But don’t get it twisted, Jonnu is the guy to bet on.
I believe Jonnu is going to strike paydirt for managers that draft him because he’s potentially the best overall athlete on the Patriots roster. He’s physical, talented, experienced yet young and now he’s got his money. In addition, he’s extremely versatile. The Titans used him at nearly every position besides punter. It’s safe to assume that Bill Belichick will try to force-feed the crown jewel of an expensive free agency. With very little competition for targets at WR, two QBs that don’t have rocket arms (and will thus target the more intermediate routes), and a coach that HAS and WANTS to utilize the TE position, Jonnu Smith is set to become the primary beneficiary. We’ve been waiting for his arrival into the upper-echelon at the position and the stage is set for his monster breakout this year.
Rob Gronkowski (TB): TE17
2020 was the first time since 2011 that Gronk played in all 16 regular season games. Despite that, he’s still had multiple TE1 finishes in his injury-riddled career. However, consider the following facts when judging the world’s favorite man-child: He’s 32 years old (which is not too old for Tight Ends), he’s got a year of experience in the Bruce Arians system, he’s got his good ol’ buddy Tom “He Who Remains” Brady chucking him the ball, he’s clearly found his joy for the sport again, and he finished 2020 as the TE8, despite looking aggressively out of shape at times.
I will admit that my hope with targeting TE2s with Top-5 potential was to pay attention to players that are desperately needed on their respective offense. The goal is always to find that player that needs to absorb targets faster than a Hot Girl Summer party absorbs White Claw. Yet, being an over-targeted TE is not always a good situation. For example, last year, Evan Engram (TE – NYG) received 109 targets and still finished as the TE16. Only 4 other TEs received over 100 targets. Gronk had 77 targets and outproduced Engram. I think, at worst, Gronk is a safe bet at TE17 to return ridiculous value. I don’t think he’ll get enough targets to be the TE1 overall, but I think a Top-5 finish is within the range of outcomes for the greatest TE of all time. His chemistry with Brady, his red zone presence, and his consistently great track record are enough for me. The Bucs are going to run it up this year and Gronk will be in better shape.
Adam Trautman (NO): TE23
Outside of Alvin Kamara (RB – NO), there’s very little certainty on the New Orleans Saints roster. Michael Thomas (WR – NO) probably will be back to his old WR1 self, but even that’s not a 100% guarantee. Who will the starting QB be? Who’s the WR2 to replace the loss of Emmanuel Sanders (WR – BUF)? And, of course, what happens at the TE position since Jared Cook (TE – LAC) has left town?
Great questions, but don’t let them distract you from what we do know. Trautman is the TE23, so you can grab him so late in the draft that your roster won’t suffer if you have to drop him. He’s waiver wire bait if he doesn’t perform early and often. He has a pretty low floor but his ceiling feels disturbingly high, and for that reason, he has Top-5 potential. We just have to use our imagination.
With a new QB, no more Jared Cook or Emmanuel Sanders, there’s a reasonable argument that Trautman is the third-best player on this offense. He was taken in the third round of the 2020 draft so the team has substantial capital invested in him, he’s got a season under his belt, the opportunity is there (174 vacated targets), and he’s the top TE on the depth chart. The Saints always seem to have fantasy-relevant TEs and Trautman appears to be the next in line for greatness.
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