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11 Best Value Picks Based on ADP (Fantasy Football)

Aug 4, 2021


 
With the preseason beginning on Thursday, fantasy managers have already begun drafting in droves. Thanks to them, you have all sorts of data at your fingertips showing where each player is typically taken. Despite all the information every fake football GM has available to them, the public still collectively undervalues certain players every August. Finding these guys is the key to winning your draft. It’s hard to gain an edge and identify underrated athletes when everyone has access to all the same info you do. But fear not! Our featured pundits are here to guide you by sharing their thoughts on which players offer the most value at their current half-PPR average draft position (ADP).

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Q1. Who is the best value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?

Cam Newton (NE): ADP – QB28 | 197th Overall
“This is easily Newton, right? How is a QB that’s coming off of the most red zone rush attempts (42) for a QB in NFL history all the way down at QB28? Mac Jones was labeled as ‘pro ready’ coming out, but he needs the situation to be perfect around him in order to truly be successful and that’s not the case here in New England. While the receiving corps is 10x better than what it was in 2020, it’s still a step down from what Jones was working with at Alabama. He isn’t a threat to Newton’s job anytime soon and we know what Newton can be for fantasy football when he’s fully healthy and has decent weapons to throw to because of his rushing ability. People are going to be scared off of the veteran QB because of what we saw on the field last year, but selecting Newton as a streaming QB late in your draft is an absolute steal.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Jalen Hurts (PHI): ADP – QB12 | 80th Overall
“I understand why Hurts is going at pick 11.8 in consensus ADP, but he’s a bargain in my opinion if you get him anywhere beyond the ninth quarterback. In his four games started last season, he was the QB7 in fantasy, and that is including the Eagles’ Week 17 game where Hurts was pulled early. Yes, he’s not the most accurate passer, but the coaching staff has had an offseason to design a gameplan around his skill set, the team drafted a bonafide No. 1 receiver in DeVonta Smith (who isn’t expected to miss regular-season time), and he offers an incredibly high floor because of his rushing ability. He’s a poor man’s Kyler Murray, and even if nearly everything plays out in the bottom 10% of his range of outcomes, he’ll still likely challenge a top-12 finish at the position so long as he holds down the role.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Trey Lance (SF): ADP – QB21 | 132nd Overall
“Lance averaged 10.8 rushing attempts in 2020 and I have him projected for 6.8 attempts per game in 2021. Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 17 quarterbacks who have averaged at least 6.8 rushing attempts per game. The combined average of that group would have ranked as fantasy’s QB5 on average over the past five seasons. From Tim Tebow to early-career Josh Allen and late-career Cam Newton, there are plenty of subpar QBs weighing that average down. The top-end range of outcomes of this type of rushing volume has brought several QB1 fantasy seasons — most recently, Lamar Jackson‘s 2019 and Kyler Murray’s 2020. Lance is an absolute gift if you can draft him anywhere near his ADP.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

Ryan Tannehill (TEN): ADP – QB10 | 75th Overall
“Tannehill is a steal at QB10. The addition of Julio Jones to an already star-studded offense in Tennessee is a big win for Tannehill’s fantasy value. He should cross 4K passing yards and approach 35 passing TDs. Don’t forget his seven rushing TDs in 2020 either. He’s a sneaky good QB1.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Q2. Who is the best value pick at RB based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Mike Davis (ATL): ADP – RB24 | 56th Overall
“Getting Davis at an RB ADP of 24.7 is an exceptional value in my opinion. No, the Falcons won’t be very good and yes, their defense is going to struggle, which usually doesn’t bode well for a running back. But where exactly are the touches going in this offense? Not only is there no one behind him (fantasy managers are trying to make Qadree Ollison a thing right now just to have something to discuss), but other than Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, there’s not much to talk about on this offense. Arthur Smith’s offense in Tennessee ranked second and third, respectively, in run rate over the past two seasons, and although Davis is a far cry from Derrick Henry, Smith is surely going to lean on the run more than the Falcons have previously. Davis may wear down again, but he’s an excellent choice as your RB2, especially where he is going.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Mike Davis at RB24 is going to see the vast majority of the carries for the Falcons in 2021. At a position where volume is king, he has that on lockdown and should have a shot at 10 TDs. That makes Davis a solid return as an RB2 and an even better RB3/flex if you can nab him there.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

D’Andre Swift (DET): ADP – RB18 | 32nd Overall
“Swift was targeted at a higher per-route rate in his rookie season than Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey were as rookies, and he is likely to double his route total in 2021. 100-plus targets are easily within his range of outcomes on a Detroit team that is devoid of proven pass-catchers, pioneered by check-down enthusiast Jared Goff, and likely to be playing from behind in most games. He projects as a borderline top-12 RB in any sort of PPR format.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

Darrell Henderson (LAR): ADP – RB25 | 62nd Overall
“After the devastating Cam Akers injury news, I fully expected to see Henderson’s ADP skyrocket into mid-range RB2 territory. However, his ADP seems to have plateaued and settled out as a high-end RB3. This is extremely surprising to me and I’m not quite sure why more people aren’t clamoring to get a talented RB in a dynamic offense on their roster. If Henderson’s ADP stays where it’s at all the way through the draft season, he’s going to be viewed as a league-winner.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Q3. Who is the best value pick at WR based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Laviska Shenault (JAC): ADP – WR44 | 119th Overall
“As a rookie, Shenault’s target per route run rate (20 percent) was identical to Robert Woods and D.K. Metcalf and ranked ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, and teammate D.J. Chark. Simply running more routes in Year 2 and being targeted at the same rate will be enough for Shenault to be a value at his ADP. The real upside comes if his natural progression and move to the slot lead to an even higher target per route run rate. Shenault was targeted on 24 percent of his routes from the slot in 2020, and his yards per route run rose from 1.48 on perimeter routes to 1.72 from the slot. If Trevor Lawrence is as good as advertised, Shenault is going to explode in 2021.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

D.J. Moore (CAR): ADP – WR22 | 58th Overall
“Moore should be drafted much higher than as a borderline WR2, and I’m not sure why his ADP is so low. Sure, he hasn’t scored a ton of touchdowns, but he’s had at least 1,175 yards receiving in each of the past two seasons and Curtis Samuel is now out of town. Sam Darnold is far from a sure thing at quarterback, but with another year in Carolina’s system and a potential role in the slot, there’s just not a ton of downside. He’s finished as the 18th and 22nd wide receiver in half PPR in the last two seasons (which includes him missing a game in each year), so if he can just add another touchdown or two, he should finish as a strong WR2. He’s being drafted at his floor.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Robert Woods (LAR): ADP – WR18 | 44th Overall
“If you ask any fantasy football fan who the most underrated WR is year after year, Woods has to be at the top of the list. Every season, he’s drafted as a mid-range/low-end WR2 and he outperforms expectations every single time. While there’s always been a cap on his fantasy ceiling because of Jared Goff’s deficiencies, Matthew Stafford is ready to blow the roof off of this offense in LA. 35 passing touchdowns are not out of the realm of possibilities for Stafford this year and Woods would be one of the main beneficiaries of that volume. Draft Woods this year.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Jerry Jeudy (DEN): ADP – WR37 | 92nd Overall
“Jeudy at WR37 is highway robbery. He was arguably the best WR talent in last year’s draft and his ability to get open in his rookie year was very exciting. Yes, drops were an issue, but I’m banking on Teddy Bridgewater and a healthy Courtland Sutton making a positive impact on the field for Jeudy. He’s being drafted as a WR4, but could easily finish as a WR3 and possibly even a low-end WR2 if things break right.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)


Thank you to the experts for naming their best value picks this year. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and check out our latest podcast below for more advice.


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