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4 Undervalued Running Backs to Target (2021 Fantasy Football)


 
Sometimes, we all just want to feel appreciated or valued by those around us. When it comes to fantasy football, we typically place value on players pertaining to their situation or talent. Finding value in fantasy football is the ultimate goal toward winning your respective leagues. With the running back position being a premier position, discovering the value at the position can be advantageous. Seeing that people are completing draft after draft with the regular season steadily approaching, let’s pinpoint some undervalued running backs that you should target.

ADPs are courtesy of FantasyPros’ ADP Consensus.

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Joe Mixon (CIN) ADP: 21st Overall, RB14
Joe Mixon is always an interesting player to talk about in fantasy football. Everyone that takes part in fantasy football either loves him or hates him. There doesn’t seem to be an in-between. People tend to call Mixon injury-prone, but he’s never missed more than two games in a season until last season when he was limited to six games. But in the six games that Mixon was active, he was RB9 in half-PPR formats, finishing as RB1 in Week 4 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Entering the 2021 season, Mixon is poised for a productive campaign with the Cincinnati Bengals.

What we love to see is a running back that is used as a dual-threat weapon that is being undervalued. Giovanni Bernard is no longer with the Bengals, leaving more aerial targets for Mixon. Another reason to like Mixon is that his quarterback (Joe Burrow) is coming off of a season-ending knee injury where he tore his ACL and suffered other structural damage to his knee. With quarterbacks needing time to get comfortable on the field after an injury like the one Burrow had, Mixon will benefit from Burrow’s quick passes that allow him to avoid taking hits behind a below-average offensive line. There is absolutely no reason why Mixon should be taken behind Najee Harris or Antonio Gibson in drafts right now.

D’Andre Swift (DET) ADP: 35th Overall, RB19
Since early in the offseason, I’ve been on board the D’Andre Swift train ahead of his second season with the Detroit Lions. When the Lions hired Dan Campbell as their next head coach and Anthony Lynn as their new offensive coordinator, my thoughts on Swift’s stock did nothing but skyrocket. In free agency, Detroit did sign Jamaal Williams away from the Green Bay Packers, which could cause some hesitancy from those who may consider taking him. For me, the Lions don’t have a ton of firepower on their offense, leaving Swift to shoulder a heavy workload in his sophomore campaign.

While Swift gets a downgrade at quarterback from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff, Detroit has put together a solid offensive line. Additionally, the Lions lost Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, and Marvin Jones Jr. in the offseason, vacating 216 total targets from a season ago. Swift showed signs of giving us some production as a receiver, recording a 12.8% target share (ninth-most among RBs) and 46 receptions (11th most among RBs) as a rookie in 2020. Considering that the top pass-catchers — outside of T.J. Hockenson — in the offense are Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, Swift definitely has a great chance to severely outperform his current ADP of RB19.

Damien Harris (NE) ADP: 74th Overall, RB31
Before the 2020 season, Damien Harris was one of my favorite late-round picks in fantasy football. My assumption that Harris would take over the starting job for the New England Patriots came true as he proceeded to start in 10 games last season. While Harris didn’t get much passing-down work, he did flash more explosiveness on the ground than Sony Michel, who is quickly falling down the depth chart. The Alabama product would create 71 RYOE (rushing yards over expected) in 2020, which was the 15th most in the NFL, ranking him ahead of guys like Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, and Miles Sanders.

It remains to be seen whether Cam Newton or Mac Jones is the starting quarterback for the Patriots in Week 1. My bet would be Newton, as New England likely wants to give Jones time to develop before inserting him into their starting lineup. Regardless of who is operating the offense from under center, Harris is slated to lead the team in carries. Even after signing Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne, Bill Belichick would prefer to play time-controlled offense as his defense finishes as one of the best units in the league. If we could get more targets for Harris in the passing game, he could be an absolute steal at his current price. That being said, Harris is still a massive value in an offense that is going to feed him a ton of touches out of the backfield.

Trey Sermon (SF) ADP: 87th Overall, RB35
The San Francisco 49ers are projected to start the season with Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert listed as starters on the depth chart. Not for one second do I believe either Garoppolo or Mostert remains the definitive starter for long with rookies waiting in the shadows behind them. Garoppolo has to worry about Trey Lance taking his job while Mostert is hoping to earn more touches than Trey Sermon. Mostert is a solid running back, but Sermon is someone that Kyle Shanahan is going to fall in love with as he continues to evolve as a receiver in the passing game.

San Francisco didn’t just take Sermon in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft, they traded two fourth-round picks to move up to get Sermon. That goes to show how much the 49ers really wanted Sermon and the skillset he brings to the offense. In his final collegiate season at Ohio State, Sermon flashed loads of potential, rushing for 870 yards and scoring four total touchdowns on only 128 total touches, giving him fresh legs as he enters the NFL. It’s only a matter of time for Sermon to dethrone Mostert as the starter on the 49ers, even with Wayne Gallman, JaMycal Hasty, Elijah Mitchell, and Jeff Wilson Jr. also on the roster. Being able to get the potential starter in San Francisco’s running-back friendly offense for a discount seems like an easy decision.

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Skyler Carlin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Skyler, check out his archive and follow him @skyler_carlin.

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