The best part about the growth of the fantasy sports industry is that player analysis has never been more accessible. In fact, we’re at the point where one of the most overlooked aspects of playing fantasy football is simply reading the news. Often, there is a lot to learn from what a coach or executive say, as well as the information that beat reporters share. Using this news to our advantage is one of the few ways fantasy players can create an edge for themselves. Here’s a summary of this week’s headlines.
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Was lucky enough to discuss a number of recent #FantasyFootball storylines with the esteemed @ZaktheMonster tonight
🏈 Fading the Giants
🏈 Raheem Mostert debate
🏈 Gus Edwards' value
🏈 Josh Allen's ceilingApple: https://t.co/QEPLoCzAqX
Spotify: https://t.co/U9eZZ1TbEz
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) August 31, 2021
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Big Deals
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
Of course, the second-year RB is out for the season with a torn ACL. This has dramatically altered Gus Edwards‘ value heading into the apex of fantasy football draft season. We know that Edwards is a good player. In fact, since the start of 2018 he ranks fifth in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grade (90.2) and yards per attempt (5.1).
So his value increases following the Dobbins injury, but by how much? It’s noteworthy that in the one game Edwards started last season he played on just 52% of the snaps. Justice Hill received the remaining 48% of the snaps. A one-game sample isn’t predictive for what the Ravens will do moving forward, but some sort of committee should be anticipated.
Therefore, it’s worth pointing out that ESPN’s Jamison Hensley writes UDFA Ty’Son Williams has “leapfrogged” Hill as Baltimore’s No. 2 RB. Williams’ prospect profile wasn’t a strong one, but he has impressed throughout the preseason, churning out 24-130-1 on the ground. Most importantly, the Ravens rested him for the final three quarters of their third (and final) preseason game. He’s worth an add in deeper and/or dynasty leagues.
Raheem Mostert (RB – SF)
This is an important one to read the tea leaves on. Some might view Mostert’s lack of preseason action as a negative, given the oft-injured RB’s medical history. However, it’s quite clear that the 49ers were purposely putting him in “bubble wrap” to keep him healthy entering the season.
Finally unleashed this past weekend, Mostert played the entire first series with San Francisco’s starters, rattling off 53 rushing yards on seven carries. Recall that the 29-year-old ripped off the two fastest ball carrier speeds of the 2020 season on long touchdown runs in Weeks 1 and 2. He’s an electric athlete who should put up RB1/2 numbers every week he’s active. Mostert is a priority draft selection for fantasy managers who are looking for RB help after avoiding the dead zone.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
The 2020 MVP runner-up, Allen’s range of outcomes includes a truly special fantasy campaign this year. That’s because the Bills began Saturday’s preseason game against the Packers with 16 consecutive pass attempts. We know that OC Brian Daboll is going to forego conventional wisdom (establishing the run) in favor of a more progressive, aerial-oriented approach.
We also know that Buffalo threw 62% of the time in neutral game scripts last season, which was the fourth-highest mark in the league. Saturday’s game plan suggests another breakout is within Allen’s range out outcomes.
Things To Note
- D.J. Moore registered a 2.5 aDOT in Week 3 of the preseason. Given Terrace Marshall‘s summer domination, it’s worth wondering if Moore will be utilized closer to the line of scrimmage in 2021. He was productive with a career-high 13.2 aDOT last year, but his prospect profile suggests that the get-the-ball-and-run approach is superior for his skill set. There’s an outcome where he’s a PPR monster for Sam Darnold and company.
- Speaking of Marshall, he finishes the preseason as PFF’s No. 1 graded rookie wideout. The LSU product is often labeled “the third receiver” or “the big slot role” on Carolina, but he has been downright balling out thus far. Marshall has totaled nine receptions (12 targets) for 181 yards and a touchdown through three games. Averaging over 20 yards per reception is impressive, regardless of whether or not it occurs in the preseason.
PFF’s No. 1 graded rookie WR this preseason
Terrace Marshall 🚀 🚀pic.twitter.com/JF7z0zmlbI
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) August 28, 2021
- Sony Michel was traded to the Rams last week. Often a punching bag for #DraftTwitter, Michel was sneaky good in 2020. He ranked sixth in PFF’s breakaway % and was first in yards per route run (among RBs with at least 75 attempts).
- Michel left behind Damien Harris in New England, who has a 60% snap share with the starters this summer, in addition to receiving a whopping 88% of the first-team carries. His PPR ceiling is capped, but he’ll have a role on this squad. Rhamondre Stevenson is a fun sleeper, but he hasn’t been working with the starters at all.
- Courtland Sutton‘s ACL looked pretty healthy in his first game action of the summer.
knee checks out pic.twitter.com/55e8yAGRDu
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 29, 2021
Miscellaneous
- In their first game post-Etienne, Jacksonville’s starting offense played 17 snaps on Sunday. James Robinson got the start and played on the first 10, including two third downs. Carlos Hyde was on the field for the next seven snaps.
- Per PFF, among the 65 QBs with at least 25 preseason drop backs, Justin Fields averaged the the longest time to throw at 3.5 seconds. This is part of his style as a quarterback who can scramble, but it was also one of the main reasons NFL teams had some worries about him coming out of Ohio State. It probably doesn’t mean much right now, but it’s something to monitor.
- Jameis Winston being named the Saints’ starter means it’s time to buy Marquez Callaway in a big way.
- Breshad Perriman was released by the Lions. Could T.J. Hockenson be in store for a Darren Waller-esque breakout?
- Giovani Bernard has played every third-down snap with Tom Brady this preseason.
- Carson Wentz was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. He should still be ready for Week 1 (if his foot cooperates), but he’ll be cutting it close.
The absolute best-case scenario for Carson Wentz is he's a close contact — which means he can return in 5 days. That would allow him back on the practice field next Monday. (Colts off Fri-Sun)
That'd give him a total of six full practices (dating back to July 28) ahead of Week 1
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) August 30, 2021
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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.
