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Post-Hype Sleepers (2021 Fantasy Football)


 
Development isn’t always linear for players. Further, not every prospect hits the ground running. For example, the following quartet of players generated buzz earlier in their careers. However, they’ve yet to deliver on their potential fully. As a result, each player is available in the mid-to-late rounds, with the earliest average draft position (ADP) in point-per-reception formats (PPR) for any players outside the top 110.

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Laviska Shenault (WR – JAC): 113.3 ADP, WR44

Last year’s rookie receiver class included some excellent showings, none better than Justin Jefferson‘s. Additionally, CeeDee Lamb is getting hyped to the moon as WR12 in PPR formats, and the fantasy gaming community loves Brandon Aiyuk (WR25), Tee Higgins (WR28), Chase Claypool (WR29), and Jerry Jeudy (WR34) as well.

Shenault’s not receiving as much love. Yet, he has a realistic shot at ascending to No. 1 receiver status on the Jaguars with an ascending offensive climate thanks to the selection of quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall in this year’s draft. Shenault didn’t light the world on fire as a rookie. However, he bested some of his classmates in a few categories.

According to Stathead, 12 rookie receivers were targeted at least 50 times. Shenault ranked seventh in receptions (58), eighth in receiving yards (600), tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns (five), and eighth in yards per target (7.59), despite missing two games. His yards per target mark ranked ahead of Jeudy’s 7.58.

Additionally, Pro Football Focus ranked him sixth out of that group in receiving grade and seventh in yards per route run (1.55). He also led the group in contested catch percentage. But how did he fare compared to D.J. Chark, Jacksonville’s receiver going earliest in PPR leagues as WR33?

Chark’s 1.48 yards per route run trailed Shenault’s 1.55. They sported identical yards per target. However, Shenault also edged Chark out in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Football Outsiders ranked Shenault 55th in DYAR and DVOA. Comparatively, Chark ranked 66th in DYAR and 68th in DVOA. Shenault has a genuine chance to blossom into Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver this year.

Mecole Hardman (WR – KC): 138.5 ADP, WR51

I’m completely dumbfounded by the lack of love for Hardman in PPR leagues. He’s attached to a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, and there’s a clearer path to targets with the free-agency exit of previous No. 2 receiver Sammy Watkins. Hardman projects to be the team’s second receiver, and the only players definitely ahead of him in the pass-catching pecking order are superstars Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.

The Chiefs spent a second-round pick on Hardman in the 2019 draft. Still, it’s silly to consider his career to this point to be disappointing when factoring in how green he is at receiver. Moreover, Hardman played only two seasons at the position for Georgia. So it stands to reason he’s progressing through learning the nuances of the position.

Still, he’s also flashed despite his rawness. Out of 87 receivers targeted at least 50 times last year, Hardman ranked 42nd in DYAR and 28th in DVOA. He also ranked tied for 30th out of 153 qualified pass-catchers in yards per target (9.0). Finally, he ranked 48th out of 84 receivers targeted a minimum of 50 times with 1.64 yards per route run. So the foundation is set, and Hardman has ample room to grow into a fantastic fantasy option this year. He should be closer to the top-40 receivers rather than ranking just outside the top 50.

Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA): 175.0 ADP, RB50

I recently wrote about Penny on my All-Undrafted Team. He also qualifies as a post-hype sleeper. So here he is. Check out the linked piece to see why I’m intrigued by him in all fantasy football formats this season.

Gerald Everett (TE – SEA): 191.8 ADP, TE22

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the unquestioned stars in Seattle’s passing attack. But, as is the case with Hardman and the Chiefs, there’s room for someone to claim the third pass-catching duty in an offense led by an elite quarterback. In this case, the elite quarterback is Russell Wilson, and Everett’s my favorite dice roll to emerge as his third target.

Everett’s a change-of-scenery breakout candidate after having tight end production cannibalized by fellow talented tight end Tyler Higbee with the Rams. He joins a less talented tight end room. Further, he should be familiar with the new offense the Seahawks run, joining new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron in defecting from the Rams.

Speaking of the tight end room, Greg Olsen (9.2% target share, per Sports Info Solutions) and Jacob Hollister (7.1% target share) leave behind a combined target share of 16.3%. If Everett can earn those consolidated looks by himself, he can be a fantasy starter. To put the 16.3% target share in perspective, that’s Mike Gesicki‘s 2020 mark, and he finished as TE7 in PPR points and TE8 in points per game (excluding C.J. Uzomah‘s two games), according to the FantasyPros Fantasy Leaders page.

As for Everett, he boasts an eye-catching measurables profile, ranking well in workout metrics and SPARQ-x score, per Player Profiler. In addition, he utilized his athleticism to do damage after the catch last year. He trailed only George Kittle among tight ends with at least 50 targets in yards after the catch per reception, tying for the second-highest mark (6.0 YAC Per Reception) with Noah Fant. So if I miss out on the elite options at tight end, I’ll double-dip on breakout candidates and Everett’s on that list.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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