Running backs are the building blocks of many fantasy rosters. If you don’t have at least a couple of solid backs, you are going to have a more difficult time competing for a title. Because of this, it is vital that you hit on your running back picks and don’t end up with a player that is ultimately disappointing.
This article will look at three running backs that are overvalued at their current ranking (0.5 PPR formats) and unlikely to move the needle in your pursuit for a fantasy championship. Let’s dive in.
Rankings provided using FantasyPros Experts Consensus Rankings for half-PPR formats.
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Chris Carson (RB – SEA) – RB17 ECR
Chris Carson has been an effective running back in the past, but there are some legitimate concerns with him going into 2021. The first concern with Carson is injuries. Chris Carson’s injury history includes an ankle fracture (2017), hip sprain (2018), shoulder sprain (2019), hip fracture (2019), MCL sprain (2020), and a mid-foot sprain (2020). He hasn’t played in all 16 regular-season games in a single season and is almost assuredly going to miss some time this year as well.
The second concern with Chris Carson in 2021 is the other running backs on the Seahawks depth chart – specifically Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA). Penny is a former first-round pick in the NFL Draft (2018 – 27th overall) who has flashed talent in the past, averaging 5.1 yards per carry over the course of his career. He has been looking great thus far in training camp with Penny saying, “This is the lightest I’ve ever been. I feel very explosive. Honestly feel like I’m back in high school again, like, I feel way faster” and his head coach Pete Carroll noted that Penny is the “best he’s looked since we’ve seen him.” Given Penny’s presence as well as Chris Carson’s struggles with injuries, it may make more sense for the Seahawks to deploy more of a running back by committee approach in 2021 to save Carson for the playoffs.
Rashaad Penny looking healthy means that you need to bump down Chris Carson.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 5, 2021
The third major concern with Chris Carson is his red-zone usage last year. Last season, Carson had just 18 carries inside the twenty-yard line. This was less than players like Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC), Giovani Bernard (RB – TB), Wayne Gallman (RB – SF), Devin Singletary (RB – BUF), Frank Gore (RB – FA), Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN), and Kalen Ballage (RB – PIT) which raises some questions about Carson’s rushing touchdown upside going forward.
Chris Carson is not a bad player, he’s just not a great value at his RB16 ranking (PPR) considering his concerns and some of the other running back options that should be available in his draft range.
Melvin Gordon III (RB – DEN) – RB27 ECR
Melvin Gordon III is another running back you should avoid at his current ranking. The Denver Broncos selected Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) with the 35th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft this past year. Williams will be a major threat to Melvin Gordon’s touches this season, and will likely take more and more work as the season goes on – giving Gordon a depreciating value in fantasy leagues.
Another big concern with Melvin Gordon’s fantasy profile is his fumble and drop issues. Melvin Gordon fumbled four times in 2019, four times in 2020, and has 18 fumbles on 1530 touches over the course of his career. He has also struggled with drops in recent years – dropping six passes in 2018 (drop % of 9.1%), four passes in 2019 (drop % of 7.3%), and three passes in 2020 (drop % of 6.8%). Given they drafted Javonte Williams early in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft, if Gordon’s fumble and drop issues continue, it will open the door for more touches to go Javonte Williams’s way.
The last major concern with Melvin Gordon is that he plays behind a subpar run-blocking offensive line. While they are expected to improve a little bit from 2020, it’s likely the Broncos’ offensive line is still in the lower half of the league in 2021 and will make it difficult for Gordon to post efficient numbers.
In fantasy football, you want players whose value will appreciate over the course of the season, not depreciate. And with Javonte Williams in the mix, it’s unlikely that Gordon’s fantasy value appreciates as long as he’s in Denver. Because of this, he’s a player to avoid at his current ranking.
David Johnson (RB – HOU) – RB33 ECR
David Johnson is still a very useful pass-catching back, but that’s about it for positives in his fantasy profile. He’s going to be playing in a crowded backfield with the Texans also having Phillip Lindsay (RB – HOU), Mark Ingram II (RB – HOU), and Rex Burkhead (RB – HOU) on their roster. Considering Johnson hasn’t been particularly special as a runner and posted a broken tackle percentage of just 9.5%, averaged just 2.3 yards after contact, and had just 49.1% of his yards after contact, there’s a very good chance that these other backs take more touches on the ground.
In addition, David Johnson has struggled with injuries over the course of his career. After playing in every game of his first two seasons in the league (32 games), in the four seasons since he’s played in just 42 of a possible 64 regular-season games (65.6%). Over the course of his career, his injury history includes a shoulder contusion (2014), wrist dislocation (2017), multiple back strains (2018-2019), a high ankle sprain (2019), and a concussion (2020). The saying goes that the best ability is availability and the 29-year-old David Johnson hasn’t been reliable in that area in recent years.
Another major knock against David Johnson is that he’s got a subpar offensive line. Last year, the Houston Texans were a below-average offensive line and they are projected to be a below-average offensive line again in 2021. With a subpar offensive line, it’s going to be harder for Johnson to post efficient numbers and score a ton of fantasy points.
Houston Texans Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly
Career Games (OC/HC): 32
RB Room Stats (Per Game)
Carries: 18.56
Rushing Yards: 79.63
Rushing TDs: 0.47
Receptions: 3.84
Targets: 5.25
Receiving Yards: 32.88
Receiving TDs: 0.22— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) July 31, 2021
The last major reason you should be avoiding David Johnson is that he plays for an offensive play-caller that hasn’t gotten his running backs involved very much. In the two years (32 games) that Tim Kelly has been the Houston Texans offensive coordinator, the team’s running back room has averaged just 18.56 carries, 79.63 rushing yards, and 0.47 rushing touchdowns per game.
A look at the number of carries per game Houston Texans OC Tim Kelly has seen from his RB room each year (as an OC/HC)
2019-Present: Houston #Texans OC pic.twitter.com/zVyaot7r5e
— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) March 9, 2021
There’s really not much to like in David Johnson’s fantasy profile. It makes sense to avoid him in your drafts at his current price and just wait to draft in the handcuff/lottery ticket RB tier that has more potential upside.
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Eli Grabanski is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eli, check out his archive and follow him @3li_handles.
