Throughout the offseason, Kyle Yates will be highlighting several marquee fantasy players as he walks through his projection process. These projections are subject to change based on injuries, signings above/below them on the depth chart, new information regarding scheme or player usage, etc. They’ll serve as a way to give a “peek behind the curtain” into Kyle’s projections thought process and whether or not a player will be a fantasy value in 2021.
In this article, we look at how D’Andre Swift could finish outside the top-20 RBs in 2021.
D’Andre Swift
Coming out of Georgia, Swift was one of my favorite RBs in the 2020 NFL Draft class. He had every single trait that NFL talent evaluators look for in a prospect and he seemed poised to be the “next big thing” for fantasy football.
While he dealt with some concussion issues in 2020, he showcased his talent on multiple occasions on a bad Detroit team. Even though the Lions as a team struggled, the offense was still held together nicely in large part because of Matthew Stafford and his talent. Fast forward a year and Stafford is now in LA, Kenny Golladay‘s now a New York Giant, and even Marvin Jones have moved down south to Jacksonville.
This offense wasn’t the most high-powered to begin with and it’s now taking a major step backwards with Jared Goff at QB and Anthony Lynn at OC. With Sean McVay as his play-caller the past two seasons, Goff has thrown a measly 42 touchdowns to 29 interceptions. In 2021, Goff’s going to be throwing to players like Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, TJ Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Quintez Cephus, which is a major step backwards from what he’s had surrounding him over recent history.
Anyone who analyzes the NFL can tell you that this Detroit team isn’t going to be a fantastic team in 2021, so what does that mean for the overall state of the offense? How does Goff and his deficiencies play a role in Swift’s fantasy stock? He’s one of the sole options left, right? Why wouldn’t he be a top-15 fantasy RB in 2021 with that much volume?
Let’s break it down below.
Projections
One of the first key parts to understanding Swift’s lack of upside in 2021 is to recognize the difference between the best offenses in the league versus the worst. In 2020, the Los Angeles Chargers led the league in total plays ran with 1,093. At the halfway mark, the Washington Football Team totaled 1,001 total plays ran. And finally, the New York Jets were second to last in total plays ran in 2020 with 905.
While total plays ran isn’t an exact indication of lack of fantasy success, it’s a significant indicator that top-tier production isn’t exactly bountiful. Typically, the teams that rank in the bottom third of the league in total plays ran are among the worst in total touchdowns as well. For example, the Jets finished with 16 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns last season. If you rostered any Jets for fantasy last season, you know that this didn’t lead to fantasy superstardom for any of the options on that team.
While Detroit’s offensive line is a top-10 unit in the NFL, the rest of the roster is in shambles due to the leadership of Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia. They’re rebuilding things the correct way under Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell, but it’s going to be a while before we see this team rise out of the cellar of the NFC. This means that we can comfortably project Detroit to be one of the worst teams from an offensive production standpoint this season.
Taking into account the WR corps in Detroit, plus the state of the defense, I have projected the Lions with 969 total plays ran over the course of the 17-game season. This breaks down to 35 pass attempts per game to only 22 rush attempts per game due to the projected negative game scripts.
Swift should be the RB1 in this backfield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to see 100% of the carries. With Lynn coming over from LA, we know that he likes to deploy multiple RBs in his offense. The Lions went out and signed Jamaal Williams in free agency to come in and play a significant role in this rotation. With that in mind, I’ve broken down the carry share percentages to the following:
- Swift – 55% (205.7 carries)
- Williams – 40% (147.4 carries)
- Goff – 5% (20.9 carries)
Swift averaged 4.6 YPC last season on 114 carries and it’s unlikely that he keeps up that high of a mark with an expanded role on an offense that could struggle. I’ve allotted a 4.1 YPC to Swift on his 205.7 carries, which puts him at 843 rushing yards on the season. Based on Expected TD Rate, Swift should finish the season with six rushing touchdowns. However, there’s a strong possibility that the Lions roll with Williams in the red zone over Swift to balance out the workload. I’ve given Swift five rushing touchdowns on the year to account for that possibility, especially when you consider that the Lions might not be in the red zone all that often too.
The argument for Swift though centers around his potential as a receiver in an offense that doesn’t have many established options. With the 35 projected pass attempts per game, I’ve given Swift a 12% target share. There’s the possibility that Swift sees more if other receiving options go down with an injury, but we can never bank on that happening when we draft someone.
This gives Swift 71.4 targets on the season. I’ve projected him with a 75% catch rate and 8.0 YPR, which results in 54 receptions for 428 yards. Based on Expected TD Rate, Swift should finish the year with two receiving touchdowns. However, due to Goff’s deficiencies, I’ve allotted him with only one.
This makes Swift’s final stat line look like 206-843-5 on the ground to go with 54-428-1 through the air. This culminates in 189.952 fantasy points, which puts him at RB22 in my projections.
Fantasy Outlook
There’s absolutely still a path for Swift to return value on where he’s being drafted right now. However, that’s a very small path when you consider the state of the offense and the presence of Williams in this backfield. Swift will need other injuries to occur around him – plus his own maintained health – in order to see more volume in this offense.
James Robinson was able to thrive for fantasy football in the putrid Jacksonville offense last season, but he did that by being the only option in town. That’s not the case here for Swift and there’s very little upside with drafting the dynamic RB. He can be a safe option that will have a clear and guaranteed role, but it’s unlikely that we see him rise to being a top-12 back this season.
Multiple things will need to break his way for that to happen and that’s not something I’m comfortable projecting. He can be a great player and still not be a great option for fantasy football.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.
